Week 2 Preview and Predictions
Matt Eichenblatt
Thursday March 8, 2007
For those that thought Damien Harrell and John Dutton were going to be trading fishing stories on the bench by the fourth quarter (myself included), we were given a stern awakening as to what the 2007 season would have in store. First, Colorado’s loss of Willis Marshall and Ahmad Hawkins has and most certainly will hurt that team. Second, where is the Chris Greisen bandwagon so I can jump on? Throwing nine touchdowns in your first game as a starter against a pretty decent Arizona team is a chilly sight for the league to see. While I will not proclaim them the greatest offense of all-time after one week, the tandem of Chris Jackson, Derek Lee and Troy Bergeron with the help of an efficient Greisen might land them in there before season’s end. Last but not least, where are you Las Vegas? I put my neck on the line for you guys last week and picked you to beat Austin—never more, Las Vegas. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
So how did the predictions go last week? Not too bad, as the season started with a 6-3 record. Could be better, but after the football gods threw a curveball in Denver and Kansas City, I won’t complain.
Alright, enough about last week, let us see how the games will shake down in the second week of action in the Arena Football League.
Las Vegas Gladiators at Grand Rapids Rampage
Overview: After their shocking upset over Colorado, the Rampage are flying high with emotion. Even after starting quarterback Chad Salisbury was knocked out of the game with a concussion, the Rampage offense was still efficient as newcomer Matt Sauk came in the middle of the 3rd quarter and tossed for 101 yards and two touchdowns passes. The other storyline in that game was the Grand Rapids defense keeping the potent Colorado offense in check. Despite catching 3 touchdowns, Damien Harrell was unable to make that ‘game changing’ play he usually does in the fourth quarter, and for that, the Rampage need to be applauded. It will be interesting this week to see if Matt Sauk can be as efficient as he was last week when he takes the reigns as the starting quarterback in place of Salisbury, who has officially been put on injured reserve.
For Las Vegas, things can only look up after Sunday’s dismal performance in Austin. Shaun King and the offense got out to a terribly slow start and it was not until 8:52 left in the fourth quarter that he got his first and only AFL touchdown past. Despite the short comings of last week’s performance, the Gladiators did have some bright spots. Even though his final statistics will not show it, Shaun King did improve and begin to get a feel for the game in the second half. Even though he probably will not come around until midway through the season, I do expect King to improve a good bit as the season progresses. The addition of Etu Molden will do nothing but pay dividends in terms of production on the field, and as a leader for this rather young team.
These two teams last met in 2006, as the Gladiators defeated the Rampage 66-41 in early March, but don’t expect the same outcome this time. While both teams have had their struggles the past few years, as both finished in the cellar of their respective divisions last year, at least one looks to be turning the corner on the road back to respectability. If Grand Rapids can whether the storm of the loss to their starting quarterback, they could end up back in the playoffs.
Key Matchup: The big matchup in this game will be in the trenches. Despite his success last week against Colorado, Matt Sauk has had trouble when under pressure, so much so that he had a terrible run of dropping the snap last year in his stint with the Philadelphia Soul. If the front three of Las Vegas can force Sauk into situations he can not handle, he could be very prone to making a few very critical mistakes.
Prediction: Grand Rapids 46, Las Vegas 41
Philadelphia Soul at Nashville Kats
Overview: Welcome to 2007, Philadelphia! Having a bye week on opening weekend is a real bummer for fans and players alike, and I am sure this team is chomping at the bit to get on the field. Back for the Soul this year is standout quarterback, Tony Graziani, who led the Soul to their first ever playoff appearance last year. Second year coach Bret Munsey seemed to be the perfect shot in the arm for Bon Jovi’s team as his charisma and creativeness paved the way for the Soul’s 10-6 season in 2006. The Soul this season have added former Atlanta Falcon, Martin Bibla, to sure up their offensive line and protect Graziani. Bibla, formerly of the Atlanta Falcons, was a standout in college but constant injuries forced him out of the NFL after three years in the league. If Bibla can stay healthy, the Philadelphia line should be among the best in the league. Other than Bibla, all of they key cogs to last year’s run are back. The defensive secondary of Eddie Moten and Mike Brown look to be among the best duo of corners in the league, and if the offense can give them the points they need, the Soul should be in contention for another playoff birth.
For the Nashville Kats, they have to pick themselves up after their opening day loss to Columbus last Thursday, and figure out how to get receivers open downfield for quarterback, Clint Stoerner. Last week, Clint had a relatively successful week statistically throwing for 325 yards and 5 touchdowns. But the tell-tale story for him and the offense was his 58% completion percentage. Many times, Clint would have all day to throw, but be forced to scramble or throw it away do to the lack of options downfield. The Columbus defense had it pretty easy, as the only downfield threat for the Kats was Cornelius Bonner. I said last week the loss of Tolliver and Hammond would limit this offense unless they found someone to compliment Bonner, and it was fairly obvious last week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Kats welcome a newcomer to their team, Ahmad “Birdman” Hawkins to the team. Ahmad’s presence immediately helps this secondary, and I look for improvement as a whole from this defense as they play at home for the second week in a row.
Key Matchup: The key matchup in this game is going to be the battle between the receiving core of Nashville and the secondary of Philadelphia. Despite my convictions towards them, I do believe Nashville’s new crop at receiver will develop as the season progresses. But the task of facing Mike Brown, Eddie Moten and Johnnie Harris might prove to be a little to daunting for this group in week two.
Prediction: Philadelphia 60, Nashville 51
San Jose SaberCats at Chicago Rush
Overview: After the letdown on Sunday afternoon against the seemingly weaker Kansas City Brigade, the grumblings over this team’s run at Arena Bowl XX as a fluke have only gotten stronger. Despite the loss, Chicago has a lot to be optimistic about this week. First, they will be playing at home for the first time this season—an advantage that should not be taken lightly by San Jose. The Rush fans are among the most passionate in the league, and when they all pack into Allstate arena on Friday night, they will be ready to do their part to help their team avoid a disastrous 0-2 start. Last week, the Chicago Rush offense looked to be in a major rut. Matt D’Orazio threw two key interceptions; both to Kenny McEntyre of the Brigade, and the team had a total of four turnovers in the game. It will be imperative for the Rush to not turn the ball over against San Jose this week, as the SaberCats have a deadly offense who would capitalize on any miscue this team had.
The SaberCats are coming off a 66-58 win over the Los Angeles Avengers in the Staples Center this past Sunday, and hope to replicate their efficiency on offense this week, that they so proudly displayed in week one. Quarterback Mark Grieb threw for 258 yards and 6 touchdowns last week, 4 to receiver Ben Nelson. If the SaberCats continue to put up these type of numbers on offense, they will be fine the remainder of the season. What concerns the SaberCats have this season lies on the defensive side of the ball. While Los Angeles quarterback Sonny Cumbie has shown improvement, it was a bit troubling to see him throw for 315 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions against this defense. The pressure they got on Cumbie was almost non-existent as the team got in his face very few times and recorded no sacks. The San Jose secondary is pretty good, and has a lot of experience. But if the defensive line can not force D’Orazio into making the mistakes he made last week in Kansas City, it could mean trouble.
Key Matchup: What should determine the game for each team is the battle of the arms, Matt D’Orazio and Mark Grieb. Both defenses seem to be off to a sluggish start, so count on a shootout in this one.
Prediction: San Jose 67, Chicago 64
Columbus Destroyers at New Orleans VooDoo
Overview: What a week it was for the New Orleans VooDoo. On the road in front of a sold out crowd in Salt Lake City, the VooDoo almost pulled the upset in week one against the Utah Blaze in the most exciting game of the week as they fell, 63-61. What impressed me the most about the VooDoo was how prepared this new core of guys were, despite most having never played together. New Orleans coach Mike Neu is one of the best in the business, and underestimating his team is a mistake I will never make again. Never-aging quarterback Andy Kelly was fantastic in his return in a VooDoo uniform, hurling the ball for 285 yards and 8 touchdowns. What was most important about his performance was his ability to spread the ball around to his receivers. Darnell McDonald, Tyronne Jones and Kenny Henderson each caught at least 2 touchdowns, McDonald leading the way with 4. For the VooDoo to please the newcomers to the “graveyard” on Friday night, they are going to have to focusing on maintaining that balance in the offense. Columbus has some fantastic players on defense, led by Jerald Brown who recorded his first interception of the year last week in Nashville.
The Columbus Destroyers may be off the radar right now, but give this team a few more weeks. After their 58-56 win over Nashville last week (trust me, it wasn’t as close as the score indicates), the Columbus Destroyers look to make it two in a row as they go on the road for the last time this trip, before they return home to play the Chicago Rush. The Columbus Destroyers finally have something to brag about on the offensive side of the ball. The off-season trade for quarterback Matt Nagy paid immediate dividends last week as he led the offense to their highest point total since April 1st of last year. Yes, the once struggling offense now seems to have some life after all. Facing the Destroyers this week is a VooDoo team that looks a little bit more formidable than it first appeared. For the Destroyers to continue their offensive success, they are going to have to open up the playbook and throw it downfield. The one glaring weakness I see in the VooDoo is their secondary, or lack there of. With Matt Nagy at the helm now, I see the Destroyers going downfield more than they did in their season opener, and it paying off in the end.
Key Matchup: With the VooDoo’s secondary remaining a key concern, the big matchup will be on them as they go up against the Columbus receivers. The VooDoo look pretty good offensively, and Mike Neu should have an offensive gameplan to keep them in the game. But unlike last week, it will be up to the defense to make sure that this potential barn burner goes their way.
Prediction: Columbus 53, New Orleans 44
Tampa Bay Storm at Dallas Desperados
Overview: Is it possible to think that the Desperados can put up another 55-plus margin of victory this week? After watching last week’s supposed “War on I-4,” I think so. What did the Storm do this week to stop the bleeding? Not much in terms of adding or subtracting players from their roster. I honestly thought that John Kaleo would be the perfect quarterback for head coach Tim Marcum’s system—guess not. How embarrassing was last week’s game for Tampa Bay? Well, if you stood to bare the bitter end of that disaster, you were just in time to here the overwhelming support for the away team, the Orlando Predators. For some reason, I just can not see Tim Marcum letting this get away from him, so I will fathom a guess that his offense will come in with a new gameplan that hopefully, can exploit the Desperado’s defensive weaknesses. Problem is, I do not think Dallas has any weaknesses.
For the Desperados, things could not be any better. After their 60-7 slaughtering of the New York Dragons on national television, the Desperados hope to show their fans in person how dangerous this team really is. Dallas may have scored 60 on Sunday, but if not for the heart of their head coach Will McClay, they might have hit the century mark. The Dallas starters might get to play four quarters this game, depending on whether or not John Kaleo and company decide they want to start scoring points. After seeing the Storm in action in a week one rivalry game come out quite simply dead, I just can not see them winning this game.
Key Matchup: The key matchup for this game will be the Desperados versus… the Desperados. Quite simply, if Dallas shows up and executes to their capabilities, look out for another blowout. The Storm’s lack of execution and effort in the War on I-4 was simply disgusting. The only way I see Dallas losing this game is if Dallas quarterback Clint Dolezel misses the team bus and can’t hitch a ride to the arena.
Prediction: Dallas 58, Tampa Bay 34
Utah Blaze at Arizona Rattlers
Overview: If you are looking for the best game during week two, this might be the place to find it. The Arizona Rattlers are coming off a 69-65 loss in which they played quite well, while the Utah Blaze are still on high after Steve Videtich’s game winning field goal as time expired in their 63-61 win over the New Orleans VooDoo. This matchup features two high-octane offenses and two bitter Western division rivals, which should make for another close game. The Rattlers last week had a whirl of a time throwing the ball, as quarterback Sherdrick Bonner sliced the Georgia defense for 361 yards and 8 touchdowns The offense turned the ball over only one time, and remained highly efficient all game long. I will not put to much stock in the defense giving almost 70 points to Georgia on Saturday night, because I have a feeling that the Force’s offense might do that on a regular basis, regardless of opponent. The defensive secondary is still formidable and experienced enough to not be a liability later on.
For Utah, the same can not be said about their defense. While Mike Neu’s offense has always done well, giving up 61 points to a virtual expansion team is simply not acceptable. The Blaze had an inside track on Andy Kelly because he, well, played for them just last year. The defense does not get off the field very well on 3rd downs, and despite their abundance of talent, will need to scheme better if they want to improve and shutdown this Arizona Rattlers team.
Key Matchup: The key matchup will be on two players: Randy Gatewood of Arizona and Siaha Burley of Utah. Both of the players are cornerstones to their offensive gameplan, and the one who performs better is going to put their team in a much better position to win.
Prediction: Arizona 60, Utah 58
Kansas City Brigade at Colorado Crush
Overview: After spending most of my time talking about the Brigade bashing them and banishing them forever to the league cellar, it is time to give them some props for a well played game against the defending champion, Chicago Rush. While I never thought too highly of the Rush this year, Kansas City’s win was a victory I never could have seen coming. The play from Kenny “The Glove” McEntyre was simply outstanding, and his effort which included two interceptions, was good enough to earn him ADT defensive player of the week articles. The Brigade were not all that impressive on offense this past game, as new starter Raymond Philyaw threw for only 2 touchdown passes, accompanied by an interception. If Kansas City’s defense can once again rise to the occasion, the chances of beating the Colorado Crush this week are not too bad.
For Colorado, last week’s loss to the Grand Rapids Rampage was abysmal. The normally well-disciplined team lacked focus, and let a game they led 14-0 early on, get away. This week, expect more from the Crush, because they must be simply fuming about losing to the Rampage, who had not won on the road for over a year up to that point. John Dutton and Damien Harrell are poised to strike back in a big way, but will the loss of Ahmad Hawkins and Willis Marshall be to big to keep them in contention all year long? After watching the defense get beat up by two relatively unproven quarterbacks, it sure looks that way. I just have too much faith in Colorado to feel like last week’s performance will be replicated at home again. But the defense could use some help in that secondary, and fast.
Key Matchup: Despite the win, I am still not sold on the Brigade’s quarterback situation. Raymond Philyaw seemed simply average last week, and this is a type of game where he is going to need big numbers to compete with the Colorado offense. The Colorado secondary has got some major holes that can be exploited, if Philyaw’s line could give him time. The battle will once again be the battle of the big guys up front, between Colorado’s front three versus Kansas City’s front three.
Prediction: Colorado 55, Kansas City 44
Austin Wranglers at Georgia Force
Overview: First of all, congratulations to Chris Greisen for being named the AFL’s Offensive Player of the Week in his first start in a Georgia Force uniform. The young man piloted this offense to a 69-64 win over Arizona, in a game where he torched Arizona’s secondary for 337 yards, and a league-leading 9 touchdowns. Also, Force fans would like to welcome back to 2005 AFL Rookie of the Year, Troy Bergeron. Bergeron showed no signs of rust as he came back to catch 6 touchdowns, and accumulate 138 receiving yards. Does this offense look scary or what? Chris Jackson, Derek Lee, Troy Bergeron and Jarrick Hillery are well on their way to the kind of season a group like this is supposed to have: record-setting. The Georgia defense looked alright in week one, but the secondary might be an area of concern (might be the only one). Nick Ward can not play defense back there by himself, and it showed. The lack of experience alongside Ward could prove to be the Achilles Heel on this Georgia Force team later on in the season.
The Force’s opponent this week, the Austin Wranglers, are also coming off a week one victory, this time over the lowly Las Vegas Gladiators. Wrangler’s quarterback Adrian MacPherson looked a little rusty in his return to the AFL, overthrowing receivers in the early going of the ball game, but recovered to finish with 205 yards and 5 touchdowns. Not to bad for his first game back in over two years. The Wranglers will get the opportunity to be the first defense to stop the AFL’s juggernaut, other wise know as the Georgia Force offense. The Wranglers secondary features a familiar face for the Force, DS Nate Coggins, a hard hitting player who played the past few years for Georgia. If the Wranglers hope to limit the Georgia receiving corps, it will start and stop with Nate, who might have an inside edge on some of their tendencies.
Key Matchup: The key matchup in this game will be Adrian MacPherson versus the Georgia Force secondary. The Austin defense is not bad, but I just can not see them holding the Force offense at all. If Austin wants to win in Phillips Arena for the second year in a row, than MacPherson is going to have to be on point, and have a big day against this secondary.
Prediction: Georgia 63, Austin 50
Los Angeles Avengers at Orlando Predators
Overview: Strike up the ever-familiar prelude song; it is Monday Night Football, AFL style. The inaugural AFL Monday Night Football contest will pit the Orlando Predators versus the Los Angeles Avengers. The Predators are returning home after thrashing their longtime division rival, the Tampa Bay Storm, in a game that should have been called after the 3rd quarter. The Predator offense under Shane Stafford was outstanding from the first play, in which Shane Stafford connected with WR DeAndrew Rubin on a 34 yard touchdown pass on the game’s first play from scrimmage. Really, the entire game was like that as well. Orlando also played very well on defense, making them one of the most balanced teams in the tough Southern Division.
That defense is going to have to play well again, because it looks like Sonny Cumbie has turned the corner. Despite the loss, Sonny had a great game against San Jose, throwing for 315 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions. His efficient play gives hope to the Avenger faithful, that they can once again return to the days when Kaleo last guided the team in 2005. Los Angeles is a team on the rise that could be a contender down the line, so keep an eye on these guys.
Key Matchup: When Sonny Cumbie goes under center, he is going to have to trust that his receivers can get open so he can get the ball. Cumbie is still a young quarterback, and he will still need players like Kevin Ingram and Lenzie Jackson to bail him out of situations. It will be up to the Orlando secondary to make sure that Cumbie forces passes, and bait him into making some errant passes.
Prediction: Orlando 51, Los Angeles 45
Matt Eichenblatt is a free-lance writer from the Atlanta area. He has followed Arena Football since 1999 and has been attending Georgia Force games since they moved from Nashville five years ago. As well as being a football enthusiast, he is also looking forward to graduating from the University of Alabama with a degree in Finance and Communications.
