Beat the Guru: AFL Week 1
Adam Markowitz
Thursday April 1, 2010
Welcome back Arena Football League! Man, did that offseason feel like an eternity in comparison to the normal ones...
Regardless, after taking a hiatus for 21 months, our favorite league in the world is back, and I'm ready to take out my frustrations of not having the AFL for that time on these pathetic point spreads that the so called "experts" in Las Vegas have come up with.
So join me in our second season of "Beat the Guru," and take your best shot at me!
Good luck... You're going to need it...
Just a few notes on how this game works once again for those reading for the first time... We'll take the sports betting lines from a sportsbook on the internet and do our best to pick as many winners as possible. This is how those picks get graded...
In the most recent ArenaBowl, the San Jose SaberCats were +3.5 against the Philadelphia Soul. What that means is that the SaberCats were essentially starting with 3.5 points on their side before the game ever started. In order to "cover the spread" as it is referred to in gambling, the favored team (in this case, the Soul) have to win the game by more than 3.5 points to win.
In the case of ArenaBowl XXII, the Soul won 59-56. So if you factor back in the 3.5 points for San Jose, the SaberCats actually won 59.5-59, and they covered the spread.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. Lines courtesy of Olympic Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.
Chicago Rush (pk) vs. Iowa Barnstormers: Talk about a blast from the past! Remember when some little punky kid from the supermarkets of Iowa named Kurt Warner was chucking touchdown passes in a place called "The Barn?" Ryan Vena isn't quite Kurt Warner, and none of these receivers are Mike Horacek, but I must admit that it's still good to see HC John Gregory roaming the sidelines again. That being said, as long as QB Russ Michna is calling the shots in the Windy City and HC Mike Hohensee is still the man in charge, the Rush are going to be dangerous.
Guru's Pick: Rush by 4
Milwaukee Iron (pk) vs. Spokane Shock: QB Chris Greisen is going to be looking around at his new team and wondering where WRs Derek Lee, Troy Bergeron, and Chris Jackson are. It's going to be difficult for squads to play in Spokane all year long if the Shock can keep their home field advantage together like they in af2 seasons past. Even with Greisen under center and WR Damian Harrell hauling in passes, the hosts are still going to be the play in this one.
Guru's Pick: Shock by 7
Alabama Vipers (+1) vs. Bossier-Shreveport Battle Wings: Any team that is quarterbacked by QB Raymond Philyaw has a chance to win. Heck, look at the Kansas City Brigade of yesteryear. That franchise was flat out awful until Ray Ray came to town. Then all of a sudden, wheelchair and all, Philyaw guided that team to a great season in 2007. If the name Kevin Eakin rings a bell to any of you, he was most recently a CFL quarterback for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. And for any of you that know anything about Canadian Football, you know that Eakin was a backup for the better part of the season for that team... and if you're a backup on the Tabbies, you've clearly got some issues.
Guru's Pick: Ray Ray's gang by a tuddy
Arizona Rattlers (+2) vs. Cleveland Gladiators: Literally, one of the last things that I said about the AFL when it went on hiatus was, "Well, at least I'll never have to see John Dutton throw another interception again." Odds have it, by about three minutes into the season, I'll be wrong about that. Dutton was last seen playing for the River City Rage of the IFL, and leading them to a stellar 8-6 record. So now, I have to deal with his garbage all over again. The problem with this one is that Arizona cut or PUP listed just about all of its players with AFL experience. It's the resistible object against the moveable force in this one.
Guru's Pick: Glads by 3
Tampa Bay Storm (+2) vs. Tulsa Talons: Hopefully for the sake of my beloved Orlando Predators, who were smacked around by the Storm 40-16 in a meaningless scrimmage last week, the oddsmakers are right that the Storm should be underdogs in this game. But it's hard to see Tampa Bay not coming back with vengeance, as this is the only AFL team coming back from the depths of two years ago to produce a team that, on paper anyway, looks better than the one we remember. HC Tim Marcum won't let this season slip away.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Storm by 11
Jacksonville Sharks (+1) vs. Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz: Allow me to make the list of the things that I already can't stand about the Yard Dawgz. First of all, they can't spell Dog. Dog isn't D-A-W-G. Second of all, any team that places a "Z" at the end of their team name instead of an "S" just can't be that professional. Then again, if you remember properly, this was the first team to formally sign its head coach. And with every single coach on the planet to choose from, OKC chose the one and only Sparky McClueless... err... Sparky McEwen. The last time we saw good ol' Sparky, we were hearing the chants of "FI-RE SPAR-KY" from the 600 Grand Rapids Rampage fans in attendance at Van Andel Arena and backup QB Mark Radlinkski was being used as a special teams player. So just like the good Yard Dawgz would say... Sparky Sez: We're in the dawghouse.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Sharks by a deuce
Recap
Chicago pk
Spokane pk
Bossier City -1
Cleveland -2
Tampa Bay +2
Jacksonville +1
For all of your AFL betting information and to get a look at the Guru's best plays for the weekend, check out his forum at Sports Prescription.
See how well you can do against the Guru. Make your picks here. Winners will be recognized weekly.
