Say it Ain't So: Final Grieb-Garcia game?
Andy Lopusnak
Friday May 18, 2012
More so than even the NFL, the Arena Football League is all about the quarterback. Saturday night two of the league's greatest gunslingers will dual in south central Texas when the San Antonio Talons (6-3) host the San Jose SaberCats (7-2). It marks just the fifth time (and third in less than a year) that San Jose's Mark Grieb and San Antonio's Aaron Garcia have started against each other. In AFL annals, the duo sits at the very top in nearly every career passing category.
Garcia is the AFL's all-time leader in pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes and interceptions thrown. Grieb holds league marks in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating among players with at least 2,000 pass attempts. He recently moved into second all-time in passing yards and third in touchdown passes despite ranking fifth in pass attempts. In addition to their staggering regular season statistics, both have been named ArenaBowl MVP (Grieb twice) and AFL Offensive Player of the Year (Garcia twice).
When these two future AFL Hall of Famers take the field against each other, it will mark first time in pro football history that starting QBs in the same game had combined for more than 2,000 passing touchdowns and over 97,000 passing yards. Unless these two meet in the playoffs this year or next season, we might never see two more accomplished passers faceoff against each other as Garcia turns 42 in October and Grieb will be 38 next Wednesday (May 23).
Looking deeper in the league's lost history of the 1990s, I tracked game-by-game for both quarterbacks (something the AFL doesn't have seemingly) to find that Garcia has apparently started every regular season game he's ever played dating back to 1995 with Arizona against San Jose in the SaberCats' inaugural game. In his AFL debut, Garcia tossed a six-yard touchdown to Hunkie Cooper in overtime for his first victory. It was the first of an AFL record 120 regular season wins (59.1 win percentage) and this week he will start in his 204th regular season game (the most by a QB and second most ever by an AFL player to Lawrence Samuels' 207).
Second in wins is Grieb, who has played in 170 regular season games (fourth most by a QB) with 161 starts (110-51). Grieb's 68.3 win percentage is the highest in league history with 100 starts. In the four previous head-to-head matchups, Grieb has come out victorious. All three wins were in San Jose. In all four previous matchups, the winner won by at least 13 points and scored at least 64 points. San Jose scored 83 and 76 points in the last two times against Garcia-led teams (last year Garcia was at the helm of the eventual ArenaBowl champion Jacksonville Sharks).
San Jose thumped the Talons seven weeks ago 76-53 thanks in part to the constant pressure the SaberCats defense put on Garcia that sacked him three times and forced three fumbles (losing two of them). Garcia hasn't been victorious over Grieb since 2004 when he was a member of the New York Dragons. That day, he completed 19-of-21 for 285 yards with nine touchdowns and an interception.
Here's a look at what Grieb and Garcia did in those previous four games. Garcia has nine more passing scores in these games; however, as a team San Jose has eleven more rushing touchdowns than the four Garcia-led teams. As evident with the SaberCats this season, when San Jose gets inside its opponents' ten-yard line the ground attack begins. San Jose leads the AFL in rushing touchdowns with 22 of the team's 24 ground scores coming from inside the ten. Throughout the league, no other team has more than 21 total ground scores. San Antonio's seven total rushing TDs are tied for last second to last in the league.
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AARON GARCIA
|
||||||
|
YEAR
|
RESULT
|
COMP
|
ATT
|
YARDS
|
TD
|
INT
|
|
2012
|
LOST
|
19
|
27
|
275
|
7
|
0
|
|
2011
|
LOST
|
27
|
34
|
354
|
9
|
1
|
|
2004
|
WON
|
19
|
21
|
285
|
9
|
1
|
|
2002
|
LOST
|
17
|
37
|
228
|
5
|
2
|
|
TOTAL
|
1-3
|
82
|
119
|
1,142
|
30
|
4
|
|
MARK GRIEB
|
||||||
|
YEAR
|
RESULT
|
COMP
|
ATT
|
YARDS
|
TD
|
INT
|
|
2012
|
WON
|
24
|
40
|
269
|
6
|
1
|
|
2011
|
WON
|
32
|
48
|
401
|
9
|
2
|
|
2004
|
LOST
|
31
|
44
|
327
|
2
|
2
|
|
2002
|
WON
|
16
|
31
|
225
|
4
|
1
|
|
TOTAL
|
3-1
|
103
|
163
|
1,222
|
21
|
5
|
GRIEB vs. GARCIA 2012 RANKINGS
Halfway through the 2012 season these two QBs rank in the top five in most AFL passing categories. Grieb edges Garcia in every positive passing category aside from passing touchdowns. Garcia has tossed one more passing TD than Grieb (though Grieb does have two rushing TDs to Garcia's none). In addition, Garcia has tossed the second most interceptions and has fumbled more than any other player (14) with a league-high eight lost fumbles (the next closest player has just four). The last time these two met, Garcia lost two fumbles on back-to-back plays in the second quarter that led to 14 SaberCats points. Thus far, Grieb has fumbled twice on sacks and lost both (in 61-55 loss at Philadelphia).
|
GRIEB
|
CATEGORY
|
GARCIA
|
|
2nd
|
Pass Yards
|
5th
|
|
2nd
|
Total Offensive Yards
|
5th
|
|
4th
|
Pass Touchdowns
|
3rd
|
|
4th
|
Total Offensive TDs
|
5th
|
|
2nd
|
Pass Attempts
|
4th
|
|
2nd
|
Completions
|
4th
|
|
6th
|
Passer Rating
|
8th
|
|
6th
|
Yards per Completion
|
8th
|
|
5th
|
Yards per Attempt
|
8th
|
|
3rd
|
Completion Pct
|
7th
|
|
T-5th most
|
Interceptions Thrown
|
T-2nd most
|
|
N/A (2)
|
Fumbles
|
Most (14)
|
|
N/A (2)
|
Fumbles Lost
|
Most (8)
|
|
T-5th most (9)
|
Times Sacked
|
2nd most (18)
|
GAME PREVIEW
San Jose has won its last four and San Antonio has won its last three. The winner will have the best record in the National Conference. San Jose has lost its last four games played in the state of Texas and hasn't won in the Lone Star State since 1996 when the SaberCats beat the Texas Terror 42-24.
Statistically as a team, San Antonio doesn't reflect its 6-3 record. The team is near the bottom in most offensive categories. Turnovers are the most glaring. The Talons have lost more fumbles than any other team and its -9 turnover differential is third worst in the league. Garcia has also been sacked the second most times in the AFL. Going against the best pass rush doesn't bode well for the league's leader in fumbles lost. The Talons also have the worst fourth-down offense in the league converting just 16.7%. San Jose is fourth converting 65% of its fourth downs.
Not a single Talons receiver has played in all nine of the team's games and the top three (Jason Willis, Jomo Wilson and Robert Quiroga) haven't been on the field at the same time. This might help explain Garcia's high number of fumbles and interceptions (like Grieb last season). Last year Garcia was sacked just nine times and lost only four fumbles with consistency at the WR position.
For Grieb last year, he tossed a career-high 25 interceptions, was sacked 21 times and lost five fumbles due to numerous injuries at WR and the offensive line. Thus far, the SaberCats have been relatively healthy at WR though Ben Nelson was placed on injured reserve two weeks ago and might be out for most if not the rest of the season with an ACL injury. Without the team's leading receiver last week, San Jose still managed to score 70 points and three receivers caught two TDs apiece.
Earlier this week, the SaberCats lost reigning AFL Offensive Lineman of the Year, Rich Ranglin, to the NFL and last week lost fullback Tommy Taggart for the year. The loss of both hurts, but likely won't be devastating. Last week, All-Arena lineman Mark Lewis played the entire game at fullback and posted season highs in rushes, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He'll now move back to the line to replace Ranglin. Johnnie Kirton, who was third in rushing yards last season, will become the fullback.
San Antonio's defense ranks second in sacks and opponent fourth-down conversions. San Jose is the top team in both categories. The Talons have three players in the top 18 in tackles.
With two great quarterbacks, this game like most in the AFL will ultimately come down to turnovers and performance in the fourth quarter. On paper, San Jose clearly has the advantage in both. The SaberCats' fourth-quarter defense is the best in the league allowing just 21.4% on third down and 16.7% on fourth down - both best in the AFL.
Last week against the league's top passer in terms of yards and touchdowns, Utah's Tommy Grady completed just 38.9% of his final 18 pass attempts including a stretch with six straight incompletions. In his first 29 pass attempts, Grady completed 65.5%. The SaberCats pass rush put constant pressure on him throughout the game and in the final quarter was too much for him.
In the fourth quarter the last time these two met, Garcia lost a fumble with ten minutes to go that sealed the victory for San Jose. When the SaberCats beat Garcia and the Sharks last season, he tossed an interception with Jacksonville down seven late in the fourth that led to an insurmountable lead and a San Jose victory.
Grieb's fourth-quarter performance against Philadelphia led to the team's worst loss of the season. San Jose was up 34-33 going into the fourth quarter. The Soul picked off Grieb on the final play of the third quarter and he was intercepted on his next two drives as well. The three picks led to 21 Philadelphia points. Thanks to two successful on-side kicks, Grieb had the SaberCats within six points in the closing seconds, but was sacked and fumbled.
No matter the final score, this sadly might be the last time these two future Hall of Famers go head-to-head.
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
