It’s almost like this thing works! Every single one of the top 8 teams in my rankings earned a playoff spot, and furthermore, they ended up ranked in proper seeding order within their respective conferences. I even ended up with the right teams on the bubble, unlike using straight point differential.

 

Rk	LW	Team	APPPE+	Rk	LW	Team	APPPE+	Rk	LW	Team	APPPE+
1	2	ARI	1.108	7	10	ORL	0.21	13	14	MIL	-0.36
2	1	JAX	1.104	8	7	SPO	0.206	14	13	PIT	-0.415
3	3	CHI	0.49	9	9	SJ	0.133	15	16	KC	-0.614
4	6	CLE	0.292	10	8	TUL	0.028	16	15	IOW	-0.758
5	5	GEO	0.268	11	11	UTA	-0.034	17	17	TB	-0.93
6	4	DAL	0.233	12	12	PHI	-0.19	18	18	NO	-0.972

 

Habanero: Arizona, (Jacksonville – I’m definitely going to have to start weighting recent performances next year)

Jalapeno: Chicago, Cleveland, Georgia, Dallas, Orlando, Spokane, San Jose, Tulsa

Bell pepper: Utah, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh

Ketchup: Kansas City (borderline Bell), Iowa, Tampa Bay, New Orleans

 

It’s the regular season’s final week! Thus far, I’ve gone 26-17 (.605) since beginning these picks, thanks in part to never knowing what Iowa is going to do, to Jacksonville’s slide, and due to some good old-fashioned homerism.

 

Pittsburgh Power at Philadelphia  Soul (+.225 APPPE): Pittsburgh has been on a slide over the past few weeks as they continue to play the increasingly ineffective Bernard Morris at quarterback. Bill Stull finished his last five drives with Spokane with touchdowns – why not give him a shot? Philadelphia has gone up in the past few weeks, thanks mostly in part to their defense pulling it together.

 

Utah Blaze at Cleveland Gladiators (+.326): Utah is playing to make it to .500, a number unthinkable after the 2010 travesty of a season. Cleveland is the better team, but don’t have much of a reason to care about this game, and they tend to lose games they should win. On the other hand, Utah is excellent at home – apparently the only way to win in Cleveland is to be winless at home, as Cleveland has beaten everyone to come into the Q this season except New Orleans. Their wins include victories over playoff teams Chicago and Georgia, and playoff-threatening teams like San Jose, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh. 

 

Spokane Shock at Jacksonville Sharks (+.898): Do I take Jacksonville and have them cost me a win for the fourth consecutive week? Do I take Spokane with the homer pick that seems to at least work out for the most part? You bet I take Spokane in the game that ultimately matters very little – at least the Shock have a chance to set things up so they have a potential home date at the ArenaBowl. It should be interesting to see how things work out with the influx of wide receiver talent.

San Jose SaberCats at Tampa Bay Storm (-1.063): Well, San Jose, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay aren’t going to make the playoffs. So much for the high-powered names running the rest of the league off the map and showing the rest of us that 2010 wasn’t a real AFL season. Tampa Bay has been horrible recently and there’s no reason to believe anything will change here. Even with San Jose’s 1-7 road record and the fact that they’re just playing out the string after last week’s heartbreaking loss, I’ll take the SaberCats. Fun fact: with just 22 points, the SaberCats will make it over 1,000 points on the season – the sixth to do so (Jacksonville, Dallas, and the other three West teams have all done it).

 

New Orleans VooDoo at Orlando Predators (+1.182): Orlando probably doesn’t have to worry about losing and ending up possibly playing Spokane in an ArenaBowl in Spokane – New Orleans has performed much better under Jon Norris, but they’re still not at the same level as Orlando. With a competent performance and a Tampa Bay embarrassment, however, the VooDoo could get out of the basement of the APPPE+ rankings for the first time since I created them, something I’m sure they care deeply about.

 

Milwaukee Mustangs at Chicago Rush (+.850): How has Chicago kept its winning ways going even after Russ Michna’s injury? By ratcheting up their defense even more, of course. Since Week 15, their defense has gone from +.390 adjusted points per possession (third in the league) to +.627 adjusted points per possession (meaning their defense is holding teams to nearly 2/3 of a point less per possession than their opponents are used to scoring – it may not seem like much, but over an average 11-possession game, that’s another touchdown their offense doesn’t have to score – add in the fact that they have the best defensive and special teams advantage in the league and teams need to score an extra 9 points more than an average performance in order to beat the Rush). Milwaukee has been sneaking up the standings, but Chicago is just too good.

 

Tulsa Talons at Kansas City Command (-.642): Will Tulsa care? Based on rumor and speculation, the team is moving to San Antonio next year. Tulsa is at a six-week low in APPPE+, while Kansas City is at their highest mark in the last six weeks thanks to their crazy win over Jacksonville. Hotter team + no looming move + didn’t just blow a chance at a playoff spot = my pick. Too much bad juju around the Talons.

 

Georgia Force at Iowa Barnstormers (-1.026): Iowa just isn’t anywhere close to as good as Georgia. Furthermore, Georgia needs to win if they want to stay ahead of Orlando for that third playoff seed – the Sharks may be listing a bit, but I doubt the Force want to go in and play Jacksonville in the first round (Orlando might relish the idea, however).

 

Arizona Rattlers at Dallas Vigilantes (-.875): If this were for my life, I’d probably pick Arizona to win this. If Dallas wins, though, it sets up a very weird situation in the National Conference playoffs: The 4 seed, Spokane, will have beaten every other team in the conference playoffs, while the 1 seed, Arizona, will have been beaten by every other conference playoff team. So c’mon, Dallas, win one for the home crowd!

 

Again, as we head into the postseason and offseason, I’m looking for ways to improve the ranking system. Next year, defensive scores will be incorporated into defensive points and counted against an offense that gives them up – time didn’t permit this last year.

 

I’m also hoping to start working on some stats similar to the five-man stats in basketball, where we can see how effective each team is based on the personnel they have out on the field, at least on the offensive end. I would need volunteers to cover their home team’s games, though, since going through 9 games on a play-by-play basis and keeping track of each player (perhaps just QB/WR?) each week would pretty much require me to be employed full-time doing just that.

 

Please email me if there are any stats that you’ve always kind of wondered about and I’ll see if I can try to figure out some way of keeping track of it for the 2012 AFL season.

Brian Beaudry has been both an intern and a Director of Communications within the AFL and occasionally provides analysis of the league and the Portland Thunder as an Oregon resident. He maintains a blog, Wrong Way Sports, and you can reach him with research or graphic design suggestions on Twitter at @BeaudryPDX.