Beat the Guru: AFL 2011 Week 1
Adam Markowitz
Friday March 11, 2011
The Guru is back once again this season, and we're ready to rock and roll with another season of great gridiron action.
But before we get started with the first week of the season, let's take a look at the crapshoot that is trying to figure out who is going to win the whole enchilada this season.
If I had to take my guesses, I'd have to go with the Philadelphia Soul in the American Conference for sure. There really just don't feel like there are all that many teams that are that great in the American Conference, though both the Jacksonville Sharks and Orlando Predators could make a case.
The National Conference is a lot more stacked. The Central Division isn't fantastic, but the Spokane Shock, San Jose SaberCats, and Arizona Rattlers are all legitimate ArenaBowl contenders.
The champs are the champs until they get knocked off, and though I tend to believe that the Shock are the best team in the league, they don't look as suited to win the ArenaBowl as the Soul are, especially with the ArenaBowl being in the home of the team with the best record, not at a neutral site. Spokane will have more challenges during the regular season and Philly will have the best record in the league and ultimately win the championship.
Now that that's out of the way and the Guru has spoken, we know that the rest of these 20 weeks of games mean nothing... But of course, while these games are here, we might as well make some money on them, right?
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. Lines will be posted as soon as possible here at ArenaFan. Please check back at 12:00 ET for the latest update.
Basically, I don't want to hear it if you actually place real money bets on the games that I'm picking and you lose. There's no crying in Arena Football.
Here are the rules of the game...
On Fridays (assuming that lines are posted), I'll post my weekly article with the spreads from a reputable sportsbook for that week's games.
For those of you that don't know how spreads work, here's a quick explanation.
In the 2008 ArenaBowl, the San Jose SaberCats were +3.5 against the Philadelphia Soul. What that means is that the SaberCats were essentially starting with 3.5 points on their side before the game ever started. In order to "cover the spread" as it is referred to in gambling, the favored team (in this case, the Soul) have to win the game by more than 3.5 points to win.
In the case of ArenaBowl XXII, the Soul won 59-56. So if you factor back in the 3.5 points for San Jose, the SaberCats actually won 59.5-59, and they covered the spread.
If you're still confused about how this works, you'll catch on after you start seeing some other people post.
Speaking of posting, that's exactly how this contest works! There will be a thread that is made a sticky at the front of the ArenaFan Message Boards that will be linked to the bottom of each weekly article.
Winners will be recognized weekly in the following week's article, and records will be kept on a weekly basis for the duration of the season.
Tampa Bay Storm @ New Orleans VooDoo - Poor Dave Ewart doesn't know what he is getting into with this Tampa Bay team. Now, I can officially mix my team's rooting interest in with some in depth article writing. Simply put: Tampa Sucks. Unless BJ Hall is going to be the savior of this franchise, this is going to be a long, long season. Bet Ewart would love to have Fred McNair and some of those Florida Bobcats back... The 'Doo aren't getting beaten in this first game back in the Crescent City.
Guru's Pick: 'Doo by 12
Philadelphia Soul @ Pittsburgh Power - Who knew that the AFL was going to promote this game as Ron Jaworski's team against Lynn Swann's team? Where have I seen this before... The problem that Swanny has is that his team doesn't have a quarterback. Jaws has a pair of them. Bringing in Coach Ho was the coup of the offseason for sure for the Soul. He's a smart man, and he knows that he can use Justin Allgood as his passer, and Ryan Vena as his goal-line back. Hell, if we had a man that resembled the Pillsbury Dough Boy that could also throw the football, we'd let him try to bowl over a jack linebacker, too. Pardon the pun, but Philly should "power" past Pittsburgh in the first NFL Network game of the year.
Guru's Pick: Jaws by 16 and a roll of Pillsbury crescent rolls
Spokane Shock @ San Jose SaberCats - The SaberKitties are back, and Mark Grieb is back in the saddle with the team once again. Sure, he doesn't have the same tools around him that he did when the team was busy getting screwed out of the title in '08, but let's face it. He's Mark F'ng Grieb. The champs are the champs though, and like I've already said, until someone beats them, they are still the ones to top. This is the toughest game to pick of the week.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Shock by 2
Kansas City Command @ Dallas Vigilantes - Pop quiz, hot shots. Name a total of five players in this game. What? You can't do it either? This is an interesting game for JJ Raterink, as it's really the first chance that he has to prove that he can be a legit starting signal caller in this league. Dallas can't possibly be as bad as it was last season when it fell flat on its face, but the water has to at least be slightly less contaminated right now in "Big D" than it was last season. Go with the hosts.
Guru's Pick: 'Lantes by a tuddy
Jacksonville Sharks @ Arizona Rattlers - What a backhanded slap by Kevin Guy this past week about his team's offseason. "We spent the whole off-season getting all of the flimflam and shenanigans out of the organization." Somehow, we don't think that he's talking about the departed Danny White or Rod Windsor... but we won't go there... Oh, this game? Aaron Garcia hasn't already made his annual trip to the IR, right? That's good enough for me.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Shark Attack by 6
Tulsa Talons @ Georgia Force - And now, your starting quarterback for your Tulsa Talons... Justin All... oh... Well, starring at wide receiver, one of the best in the biz, Donovan Mor... oh... And one of the best sack specialists in the game, introducing Gabe Nyen... oops again... You get the gist, right? Somehow, Bobby Reid just doesn't scare the wits out of me right now for the Talons, and neither do all of these guys that are replacing these studs from last year. Brett Elliott really doesn't either, but he has to have more talent here in Hot 'Lanta than he did playing in Utah.
Guru's Pick: Jawja by 11
Chicago Rush @ Milwaukee Mustangs - So much for that "Iron clad" guarantee from last season. Guess Milwaukee decided to go back to the 'Stangs, which suits me just fine. You know me, all about the old school. Unfortunately, the quarterback situation in Milwaukee is pretty old school right now as well. The last guys to throw passes for the old Mustangs were Kevin McDougal and Donnie Davis. I think I'd rather have Donnie Davis than Jameel Sewell... at least Davis has an ArenaBowl title. Bob McMillen and company really want to get this ship in the Windy City off on the right foot this season. The Rush will do so by running over the Mustangs.
Guru's Pick: Chicago by 6
Now, go make your picks. Good luck!
