Beat the Guru: AFL Semifinals
Adam Markowitz
Thursday August 12, 2010
And then there were four. The chase for the ArenaBowl heats up again this week, as four teams fight it out to play for the championship.
I still haven't totally hit postseason form yet after going 2-2 last week. However, that 2-2 ATS mark was a popular one amongst posters at ArenaFan. The only one to Beat the Guru last week was dthomas4233, who went 3-1 ATS, with the only blunder being Chicago against Milwaukee.
Without further ado, let's get right to the action for the semifinals!
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker Sportsbook as of Thursday morning.
Milwaukee Iron (+4.5) @ Spokane Shock - Does anyone else find it ironic that the AFL still has no clue where its championship game is going to be played in the event that the Iron pull off the upset in this game? It's not like this hasn't happened before, as Milwaukee marched into Spokane to start the season and walked away with a double digit victory. One thing is seemingly for certain, and that's that chaos is going to ensue if this game goes the way of the visitors. Could 8-8 Orlando really host the ArenaBowl against Milwaukee should the Iron not have any arena availability? Talk about something that would be a real travesty to the AFL...
As for the game itself, this one should be quite the shootout. Milwaukee's offense has no desire to slow this game down. It is going to have to outscore the Shock to get out of Spokane alive. The problem at hand is that there just isn't enough defense for the Iron to slow down an equally potent Spokane offense. It might take 80 points to get the job done, but rest assured that the Shock will get the one stop to cover this number. Commissioner Jerry Kurz can send his thank you notes to Spokane after the game for avoiding all this controversy.
Guru's Pick: Shock by 6
Orlando Predators (+7.5) @ Tampa Bay Storm - I'll admit it... I've been hard on my Preds all season long, and they are peeking at the right time. QB Nick Hill all of a sudden looks like Joe Montana on the field, and he is hooking up with his receivers religiously on seemingly every single pass. Not bad for a guy that was essentially being castrated by the residents of the Jungle just four weeks ago, eh? Clint Dolezel doesn't look so great anymore.
The problem the Preds have is that the Storm clearly look like a motivated team right now. You think that beat down that Orlando issued to Tampa Bay in Week 18 might be ringing in HC Tim Marcum's ears? The Storm sure looked like they were ready last week in Tulsa when they beat the holy crap out of the Talons 68-38.
Then there's the sideshow... Can WR Bobby Sippio successfully keep himself out of the stands at the St. Pete Times Forum? Though there is virtually no chance of any antics happening again in the stands, you better believe that on the field, things are going to get ugly. These two teams flat out don't like each other, and the fact that both absolutely destroyed the other as visitors this year is only going to further add fuel to the fire.
Can Orlando win the War on I-4 and make it to the ArenaBowl? Absolutely. However, this just doesn't feel like a championship team to me. Tampa Bay was my pick at the outset of the season to win it all, and I'm sticking with those guns, though I'm banking on my Preds to at least stick within the TD. This could be an epic battle.
Guru's pick: Storm by just 3
Recap
Spokane -4.5
Orlando +7.5
Orlando +7.5
See how well you can do against the Guru. Make your picks here.
Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
