Beat the Guru: AFL Week 6
Adam Markowitz
Friday May 7, 2010
I just love how well this league keeps its statistics right now. Apparently Milwaukee Iron QB Chris Greisen has three receptions and a made extra point on the season. I mean, if the dude has 12 more games like he did the first three, he's going to throw 128 touchdown passes against exactly zero interceptions. Do we really need to give him credit for any more stats than that?
One stat that we can't hide involves turnovers, and my, have the Iowa Barnstormers had plenty of those this season. Their quarterbacks have thrown ten picks, their DBs have snared five more going back the other way, had four fumbled recovered of their own, and put four more on the turf (and that doesn't include the net recovery they had against Orlando last week). That's right. 23 turnovers in four games. "Sloppy" isn't the right word for it. "Disgraceful" might be. How on earth can you average almost six total turnovers per game in the AFL?
So on one end of the spectrum, we have a Milwaukee team that has yet to throw an interception this year, and an Iowa team that has already seen the pigskin change hands for no good reason 23 times.
And we think that these teams are on a level playing field? I think not!
Anyway, that's my rant for the week. Let's just get right back into the competition, shall we?
Actually, on second thought, do we have to? Just rename me "GuWrong" after last week's miserable 2-5 performance ATS. It's a shame too, because I was really proud of picking both Iowa and Alabama to spring the outright upsets in a week where underdogs thrived and went 6-1 ATS.
So I guess the better question this week is "who didn't beat the Guru?" The answer: No one. That's right. Every single entrant this week at bare minimum matched my 2-5 ATS record. However, in a week that ate most bettors alive, Talons100 and Thrash13 both posted stellar 5-2 weeks to lead the charge. Honorable mention goes out to my boy, AndyLopusnak who finally posted his first winning week in this competition at 4-3. Way to be representin' ArenaFan, Andy.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker Sportsbook as of Friday morning.
Jacksonville Sharks (+3) @ Tampa Bay Storm: For the second straight week, the Storm have an opportunity to take out a Bouchy-owned club. This is the first meeting between these brand new Sunshine State "rivals," though I sincerely doubt that these two clubs are going to hate each other as sworn enemies. Then again, Tampa Bay needs someone to pick on now that its rivals from up the road on I-4 are nothing more than the little brother that can't figure out how to win a game. Props to HC Tim Marcum for nailing down his 200th career win in this league last week against the Ratts. 201 comes this week.
Guru's Pick: Storm by 6
Chicago Rush (+2.5) @ Milwaukee Iron: Let's get one thing straight from last week. The Iron were caught napping against Alabama. It happens to the best of us. However, playing back at home, especially with the only undefeated team in the league as the opponent, we're going to see a much more focused Milwaukee club. Add in the fact that I still don't believe that beating Iowa, Cleveland, Arizona, and Utah is anything to write home about yet, and the makings are ripe for a real beating. Here's my "Iron Clad Guarantee": The Rush are getting smashed.
Guru's Pick: Iron by 16
Orlando Predators (+11.5) @ Dallas Vigilantes: There's a Yiddish saying that I'm starting to believe was created just to describe the 2010 Preds: Oy vey. Orlando just got smacked around by a bad Iowa team that has no business going on the road and doing damage this season on national television. Now, the red and black are double digit dogs on the road against a team that has already lost its quarterback for the entire season. QB Colin Drafts proved he was capable against Oklahoma City last week, and the words "Orlando" and "capable" haven't been found in the same sentence yet all season long.
Guru's Pick: Vigilantes by three TDs
Spokane Shock (+3) @ Arizona Rattlers: Oh my goodness! What are the Shock going to do without OC Matt Sauk on the sidelines tonight??? Sauk was suspended by the AFL for essentially acting like a raving lunatic instead of a professional coach on the sidelines last week against the Glads. The offense probably just got a lot less prone to fumbling! Speaking of "what are we going to do without..." What a big loss for the Ratts this week when they had to put WR Trandon Harvey on the IR. However, replacing him with some guy that you might've heard of in the past named Siaha Burley probably isn't going to feel like missing a beat.
Guru's Pick: Ratts by 5
Alabama Vipers (OTB) @ Tulsa Talons: There have been three games decided right at the death this year in the AFL, and this game involves all three losers! Pardon the pun, but the Talons have been snake bitten this year, losing back-to-back games with no time remaining on the clock. However, both of those games were on the road. Methinks that coming back home is going to prove way too much for a red hot Alabama team that has won three straight, but is coming off of its equivalent of a Super Bowl victory over Milwaukee last weekend.
Guru's Pick: Talons by 7
Bossier-Shreveport Battle Wings (OTB) @ Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz: My god, the world is going to stop! The Yard Dawgz pitiful offense is set to take on Bossier's pitiful defense. The Wings don't exactly have the feel of a team that is .500 this year, do they? (Especially after that ridiculous loss to Utah on Friday night!) The Yard Dawgz haven't shown much of a pulse this year, but fortunately for HC Sparky McEwen, this one isn't on the road. Sparky sez...
Guru's Pick: Ground Munchers by a deuce
Cleveland Gladiators (OTB) @ Iowa Barnstormers: We just spent the beginning of this article talking about how Iowa games have had a ton of turnovers in them, and now we have John Dutton coming to town? Geez. Cleveland got into the win column last week at Spokane in what was the most surprising result in Week 5 for my money. Can the Glads do it again? We tend to believe so, but we know that it'll be an upset if it happens.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Cleveland Rocks by 4
Recap
Tampa Bay -3
Milwaukee -2.5
Dallas -11.5
Arizona -3
Tulsa by 7
Oklahoma City by 2
Cleveland by 4
Beat the Guru's Top 10 (Must have 14 games selected to qualify)
| YowDawg | 19 | 10 | 65.52% |
| Talons100 | 11 | 7 | 61.11% |
| fluence21 | 9 | 7 | 56.25% |
| AFLGuru | 16 | 13 | 55.17% |
| dthomas4233 | 11 | 10 | 52.38% |
| Rush43 | 15 | 14 | 51.72% |
| Thrash13 | 15 | 14 | 51.72% |
| kryscio23 | 14 | 15 | 48.28% |
| AndyLopusnak | 13 | 16 | 44.83% |
| Dstrimple | 8 | 10 | 44.44% |
For all of your AFL betting information and to get a look at the Guru's best plays for the weekend, check out his forum at Sports Prescription.
