Beat the Guru: AFL Week 14
Adam Markowitz
Thursday May 29, 2008
Memo to Chris McCloskey: What is different between what Neu did on the sidelines on Monday night and what Jay Gruden did on the sidelines in their nationally televised game a few weeks ago? Gruden got a verbal reprimand from the league, and nothing will be said or done to Neu. Is there a problem here? The double standards this league uses are almost as ridiculous as the officiating.
Speaking of the officiating… What a wonderful job that Bill Athan and his crew did following a touchdown pass to Troy Bergeron in the 3rd quarter in that MNF game! Bergeron routinely spiked the ball after the score, and clearly inadvertently hit the official with the ball on the ricochet. Regardless of the intent, Bergeron clearly deserved a ten yard unsportsmanlike penalty. I’ve got no problems there. No problems with the roughing the passer call on the VooDoo either. Where I had a problem was on the ruling. Not only did it take no less than three full minutes to actually make a ruling, the ruling was completely wrong. The officials offset the penalties and forced Georgia to replay the down without the touchdown.
C’mon now, refs. Each and every one of us in the ArenaFan chat room had this one figured out ten seconds into the call. Roughing the passer by New Orleans should be declined. Bergeron’s personal foul is ten yards after the ensuing kickoff. But of course not. Three minutes of my life were totally wasted watching the refs ultimately get to the wrong conclusion. So from now on, when a player gets hit for a personal foul after scoring a touchdown, I want to make sure that every defensive lineman in the league knows that roughing the passer at that point will result in a replay of the down. You’ll save your team six points, and get a cheap shot on the opposing quarterback.
As I said two weeks ago… BRILLIANT!
Speaking of brilliant things, the Guru pulled off a 6-2 week. None of you mortals out there could even match my record, so props go out to me and me alone. And in spite of the best efforts of the imposter guru from ArenaFootballOnline, a 5-3 week moved me a game closer to clinching my title as the true Guru of the Arena Football League. For his fantasy football insight, log on to AFO and check out his weekly article.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday evening.
Columbus Destroyers (+7.5) @ New Orleans VooDoo: Of all the images that I was looking forward to most on Monday night’s ESPN game, the one I never got the chance to see was the one of ArenaFan poster BBVD holding up a sign that says “‘Worst team in the AFL’-Adam Markowitz.” The Doo may not be the worst team in the AFL, but a couple more losses will sure put them in deep… well… doo. New Orleans is in a boat load of trouble at 7-5 and only a game clear of the final playoff spot in the National Conference. It’s been over a month since they scored 40 points in a game, and they are in tiebreaker hell right now. They’ve already lost the heads up tiebreaker with Georgia, and at best a 3-3 mark in the Southern Division won’t earn them any help in the divisional title race either. And in order to get to .500 in the division, they need to win in Orlando first. Yikes. The Doo better win this one or they’ll quickly go from the darlings of the AFL to the outhouse very quickly.
Guru’s Pick: Doo by 14
8-Ball’s Pick: VooDoo
Dallas Desperados (-3) @ Cleveland Gladiators: As correctly feared by the Guru last week, Dallas marched into Orlando for the third straight season and quite frankly, slapped the Preds around in their own building for the third consecutive time. The return of Will Pettis came at the right time for the ‘Rados, who now know that a victory against Philadelphia in a couple weeks should basically wrap up the #1 seed in the National Conference regardless of the outcome of their other three games. This is a classic look-ahead spot for Dallas, especially going up against a divisional rival in Cleveland who has gone a sparkling 4-1 at home, including very impressive victories against New York, Orlando, and Philadelphia. With Chicago and a rematch with the Soul on the horizon for the Glads, the playoff window may be shutting quickly if they don’t pick up an upset really soon. Now’s a perfect time.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, Glads by 10
8-Ball’s Pick: Desperados
Tampa Bay Storm (+5) @ Georgia Force: This is perhaps the best matchup of the weekend between two teams which have won a combined seven straight games. Even though Georgia is on the inside of the playoff picture right now, neither team is anywhere near safe, and this game will go a long way in determining which team from the South will have a very hard time getting into the playoffs down the stretch. The winner will be in prime position to steal the #2 seed and the Southern Division title. The Storm still don’t feel like they have “it” to me, and their late season surge that is rivaling last season’s push may be too little, too late. It’s hard to go against the Force in this one since Georgia has proven in recent weeks that they can beat you on both offense and defense. No result would really shock me here, though.
Guru’s Pick: Force by 8
8-Ball’s Pick: Storm
Arizona Rattlers (+10) @ Orlando Predators: As I mentioned in my article this week, if the Orlando Predators want to take their position as one of the elite teams in the AFL, they have their opportunity to do so. But the Preds have had weak QB play, a tendency to fumble footballs, zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks, an aching kicker, a revolving door at the wide receiver position, holes in the offensive line, and the only thing consistent in the secondary is that Ahmad Carroll is good for at least three holding, pass interference, or illegal contact penalties per game. So I’m calling you guys out this week. Boys, like I said before… now’s the time. We’ve got a backup QB with a mediocre team coming into the Jungle on a Saturday night. If we don’t win this puppy going away, we don’t deserve to even make the playoffs. I’m even going to predict a final score in this sucker, something that I almost never do. Preds 55-Rattlers 20. I’m all fired up and still haven’t even mentioned Brett Bouchy coming back to town yet…
Guru’s Pick: Preds by a resounding 35
8-Ball’s Pick: Rattlers
Ah, go screw yourself ya lousy 8-Ball…
Kansas City Brigade (+16) @ Chicago Rush: Very little went right for the Rush in their trip to Utah over the weekend, but that was largely expected coming off of a short week in a trip to a dangerous team. The Brigade have shown a pulse once again by going on the road and knocking off the Soul, but can they do it two weeks in a row? Even though Chicago has much less to play for right now than Philadelphia did a week ago, I’m frightened by the latest transactions released by the AFL. Quincy Carter is now the backup QB to D Bryant. Even though my gut says that this is too many points to cover, I’ve been advised by my peers to stick with the much better Rush and hope that their defense limits Kansas City.
Guru’s Pick: Rush by 18
8-Ball’s Pick: Rush
San Jose SaberCats (-7) @ Los Angeles Avengers: Maybe a week off has helped the quarterbacking situation in LA. Then again, maybe not.
Guru’s Pick: SaberKitties by 23
8-Ball’s Pick: Avengers
Utah Blaze (+3) @ Grand Rapids Rampage: Suddenly this game takes on all the meaning in the world for one of the last playoff spots in the American Conference. All together now… Why does this game have meaning now? If either Tampa Bay or New York wins this weekend, someone is going to have seven wins and be on the outside looking into the playoff picture in the National Conference, but these two teams combined will have seven wins. Since I said the Rampage had a “70% chance” of making the playoffs a few weeks ago, they’d better win this one, but I’m still taking the points with a Blaze team that’s growing in confidence and may be able to make some noise if they reach the playoffs.
Guru’s Pick: Rampage by just 1
8-Ball’s Pick: Rampage
New York Dragons (-1.5) @ Colorado Crush: Aaron Garcia and the Dragons offense looked totally lost in a six point second half effort in Columbus last week. Weylan Harding better get his boys ready for a fight in Colorado, because the schedule gets significantly with games against New Orleans, Dallas, and Philadelphia to close out the season. It feels like forever since the Crush have won a game, but they’re not losing any ground to anybody in the playoff race. Though this game will probably be of little consequence to them, games against Grand Rapids, Arizona, and Kansas City to end the season will decide whether or not I owe Fran a hand grenade or not! Too much on the line for the Dragons, who could be finished for all intents and purposes with a loss on Monday night.
Guru’s Pick: Dragons by 13
8-Ball’s Pick: Crush
I’m inching closer to the top spot in the standings, but I’m not sure so whether I’ll pull it off or not. AFLJunkie is tough competition. However, I am beginning the countdown of my magic number to clinch the Guru challenge. My magic number is 27 between my wins and the losses of Arena “Guru.”
Beat the Guru’s Top 10 (must have 35 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 60-39 (60.6%)
AFLGuru: 61-42 (59.2%)
InsideSix: 52-42 (55.3%)
Es46ne10: 56-46 (54.9%)
EKUVolley: 46-40 (53.5%)
Arena Guru: 55-48 (53.4%)
PhillySoul04: 27-28 (49.1%)
Rush43: 45-49 (47.9%)
MBoyle: 29-35 (45.3%)
TDTommy: 27-37 (42.2%)
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
