Beat the Guru: AFL Week 13
Adam Markowitz
Wednesday May 21, 2008
The Chicago Rush are absolutely one of the best teams in the AFL. We didn’t need to watch them score more points on defense than the Los Angeles Avengers scored as a team in the last 35 minutes or so of their Monday night snoozer. Sure, they’re 8-0 in conference and have basically wrapped up the #1 seed in the American Conference, but when they’ve headed into National Conference territory on their schedule, they are merely 1-2.
Now let’s take the Philadelphia Soul. They’ve taken road trips into both Chicago and San Jose and come out victorious in both matchups. Their only two losses are conference road games. However, in all likelihood, if the Soul lose to the Dallas Desperados in Big D in a few weeks, they’re going to be stuck as the three seed in the National Conference and probably have to play two road games just to get to the ArenaBowl.
So let me get this straight. Chicago gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and the only team that is probably going to finish anywhere near .500 in their conference is San Jose. So after getting a bye in round one, they basically get byes all the way into the American Conference Championship game.
“But Adam, what about Columbus last year or Chicago two years ago?” Ah, nuts to them. We all know that Columbus was a farce and Chicago was as good of a seven win team as there has ever been in AFL history. Besides, at least those teams both were close to .500 clubs. 7-9 will surely be good enough for someone to host a first round game right now in the American Conference, and a 4-12 team could very easily sneak in the backdoor.
“Conference champions” didn’t matter for the longest time in the AFL. You were seed 1 through whatever the league allowed into the postseason at the time, and the 1 seed got the privilege of playing the worst team left standing at home. I don’t want to hear that if you don’t win your “conference” that you don’t deserve to play in the ArenaBowl. I want to see the best two teams in the league battle it out for the title.
Now, maybe Chicago really is one of the best two teams in the AFL. Maybe they’ll win the whole thing again this year. But it’s certainly an unfair advantage that they get to rest up and play cupcakes instead of having to go through a murderous National Conference where you may need to reach ten wins to get into the dance.
I don’t want to be the one to have to explain to Tim Marcum that his Storm can finish 9-7 and be left out, when not one, not two, not three, not even four, but FIVE teams from the American Conference could all have worse records and get in.
Anyway, that’s the end of my rant for this week.
I was stuck in neutral last week, going 4-4 in a week where the underdogs went 6-2 against the spread. My friend over at Arena Football Online only went 2-5-1 with his posted numbers, but since I’m such a nice guy for the third time this season, I’m going to award him with a victory because my number in the Kansas City game was 7.5 instead of his 7. Tick tock. You’re five games back, my friend… If you haven’t already, take some time to check out his weekly column over at AFO.
If not for a really lousy effort by the Avengers, who were the consensus pick in the MNF game, InsideSix would’ve posted our first perfect week of the year. 7-1 is still awfully good though. Props to both him and es46ne, who went 6-2 last week.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday evening.
Let’s get a move on, shall we?
Kansas City Brigade (+19) @ Philadelphia Soul: Man, no respect here for a Kansas City team that really had the Predators dead to rights over the weekend. Under D Bryant, the Brigade have shown a pulse. They continually play close games, and after last week’s lackluster performance against Columbus, this is a whole boat load of points for the Soul to be covering. They should prevail, but I don’t see them ever being in front of this hefty number all night.
Guru’s Pick: Soul by just 12
8-Ball’s Pick: Soul
Dallas Desperados (+3) @ Orlando Predators: Whether anyone likes to admit it or not, the more we watch Preds QB Shane Stafford play, the more and more the question of whether it’s Jake Eaton’s time or not has to become a concern. Stafford’s turned the ball over in all but one game the Preds have played this year, and the bottom line is that you can’t do that against Dallas and expect to win. The Desperados are just too strong, and even with some injuries that occurred in last week’s shocking loss against Arizona, the ‘Rados should be fired up to take this game and lockdown their position as one of the best two teams in the National Conference. Keep an eye on TT Toliver in this one, who could pass Barry Wagner’s single season team record for most yards from scrimmage in a season on Friday night.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, Desperados by 9
8-Ball’s Pick: Predators
Cleveland Gladiators (+5.5) @ Tampa Bay Storm: In what very well could be the game of the week, the Glads travel down to Tampa Bay to take on the desperate Storm. A loss could be devastating for Coach Marcum’s boys, but the Gladiators still have a legitimate chance of being the #1 seed in the National Conference and won’t want to let that slip. A loss will drop them closer to being out of the playoff picture entirely though. Anything less than a close game will be surprising in this one, but the home field advantage should carry the Storm to victory.
Guru’s Pick: Storm by just 3
8-Ball’s Pick: Storm
New York Dragons (+1) @ Columbus Destroyers: Wait a minute. The Dragons are underdogs against the Destroyers? Something seems fishy here… However, the prospect of eliminating Columbus from playoff contention is just too good to pass up in this one. Adios, Matt Nagy.
Guru’s Pick: Dragons by 17
8-Ball’s Pick: Dragons
Chicago Rush (-8) @ Utah Blaze: For the third straight week, the Utah Blaze put up a valiant effort, and were in a position until late to upset the mighty San Jose SaberCats. Now they return home to take on a Chicago Rush team with absolutely nothing to play for until the American Conference Championship game. This could be an upset in the cards, but I think the Rush will pull it out at the very end.
Guru’s Pick: Rush by just 4
8-Ball’s Pick: Rush
Grand Rapids Rampage (-1) @ Arizona Rattlers: Is it possible that the Arizona Rattlers are better off on the road than they are at home? They’ve taken it to both Tampa Bay and now mighty Dallas on the road, but have some bad losses at home. Though sitting at five wins probably means that the Rattlers are safe, a loss here could make the guarantee of Brett Bouchy a little stickier as we come down the stretch.
Guru’s Pick: Rats by a tuddy
8-Ball’s Pick: Rattlers
Colorado Crush (+8.5) @ San Jose SaberCats: I am just so POed that I’m going to owe ArenaZone host, Fran Stuchbury a hand grenade in New Orleans even though I was spot on about the Crush being awful this year…
Guru’s Pick: SaberCats by 20
8-Ball’s Pick: Crush
Georgia Force (+2.5) @ New Orleans VooDoo: Now this, my friends, is an interesting game. There may not be a hotter team in the AFL than the Georgia Force, winners of their last three games. They arguably could be an 8-3 ball club right now. The winner of this one has a very favorable draw for the rest of the way towards winning the Southern Division and locking up that critical #2 seed in the National Conference. The aura around the ‘Doo started to dissipate back on May 3rd when they went into Georgia and left 66-39 losers. The bye week came at the perfect time for New Orleans following their loss in Tampa Bay the next week, but is 17 days off too many? ESPN couldn’t have picked a better game this week, and though the ‘Doo may have revenge on their mind, the Force are playing too well right now to go down quietly, even in the Graveyard.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, Force by 1
8-Ball’s Pick: Force
But perhaps the biggest question of them all this week… How many times will the LA Avengers turn the ball over when they host the bye week… May all your Week 13 picks be winners!
Beat the Guru’s Top 10 (must have 35 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 55-36 (60.4%)
AFLGuru: 55-40 (57.9%)
InsideSix: 48-39 (55.2%)
Es46ne10: 51-43 (54.3%)
Arena Guru: 50-45 (52.6%)
EKUVolley: 41-38 (51.9%)
PhillySoul04: 27-28 (49.1%)
Rush43: 42-45 (48.3%)
MBoyle: 24-32 (42.9%)
TDTommy: 27-37 (42.2%)
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
