Beat the Guru: AFL Week 1
Adam Markowitz
Wednesday February 27, 2008
As always, let’s get the liability mumbo jumbo out of the way. This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible.
All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Tuesday night.
New Orleans VooDoo (+8.5) @ Los Angeles Avengers: New Orleans travels across the country to take on the LA Avengers to kick off the 2007 season. At the end of last season, the VooDoo defense looked like, well… doo doo. For a squad that averaged giving up 69.5 ppg in their last six outings, trading DL Henry Taylor for basically nothing probably wasn’t a good start. The Avengers have to have a sour taste in their mouth from getting beaten down by Chicago in their last game of the season. They also made one of the biggest coups of the offseason by signing WR/KR Timon Marshall. For what it’s worth, the Avengers won last year in New Orleans 48-36, and I expect the outing to be much worse this time around.
Guru’s Pick: Avengers by 18
8-Ball’s Pick: VooDoo
Dallas Desperados (-2) @ Georgia Force: The ABC game of the week should be a dandy, as the teams with the best two records from the 2007 regular season hook up in Georgia. The Force’s 78-63 victory against the Desperados was the only blemish in the regular season for Clint Dolezel’s squad last year. I guess the common bond that these two teams share outside of the fact that Dolezel mentored Force QB Chris Greisen is their hatred of the Columbus Destroyers. Come to think of it, all THREE of us have something in common. What do you think 8-Ball? Oh never mind, you think the Destroyers are winning the championship… Well, I think the Desperados are going 16-0, and the karma from the choke... err… clank, clank, choke job is going to come around for Dallas.
Guru’s Pick: Fightin’ Dolezels by 14… the value of two clanks
8-Ball’s Pick: Desperados
Tampa Bay Storm (+2) @ Kansas City Brigade: Heeeeeeee’s baaaaaaaaack! After a year away from quarterbacking, John Fitzgerald was coaxed out of retirement by the Brigade after they missed out on the QB carousel in the offseason. With Fitzy under center, I’m very much so reminded of a quote from Storm coach Tim Marcum following their 34-32 win over Columbus last season. “She wasn’t pretty, but we danced with her anyway.”
Guru’s Pick: Upset special, Storm by 6
8-Ball’s Pick: Brigade
Orlando Predators (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Soul: You know, the Preds have got to be tired of traveling up to Philly. The last two games they played in 2007 were both in the City of Brotherly Love, and now after getting beaten by a combined 104-75 in those two games, they have to return again. Now add Chris Jackson to the offensive mix for the Soul and plug in 6 new starters from last year’s defense on the Preds… uh-oh... Since I’m covering the Preds this year, am I contractually obligated to go with Orlando every week? I’ve gotta get Joe Kauffman to check my contract… but for now, just to be safe…
Guru’s Pick: Soul by just 1
8-Ball’s Pick: Predators
Arizona Rattlers (+5.5) @ Utah Blaze: Naturally… the AFL puts Danny White Bowl VI right off the bat in Week 1. We’re not going to mention that White is only 1-4 against his former mates, including a 57-34 beat down that concluded the Blaze’s inaugural season. We’re also not going to mention that Utah’s defense gave up a Rattlers team record 83 points in their last outing. Now former Blaze standout receiver Siaha Burley takes his 214 career TD receptions back to Arizona where he played in 2004-05. The bad news for the Rattlers? QBs Lang Campbell and Jeff Smoker have a combined 98 TDs for their careers.
Guru’s Pick: Blaze by 9
8-Ball’s Pick: Rattlers
Columbus Destroyers (+6) @ Colorado Crush: Geez, can’t I just root for both teams to lose? Columbus lost their top eight receivers from a year ago. Colorado also lost their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th option at receiver… oh wait, that was all one guy (Damian Harrell)… I’m going back to the karma logic again. Columbus has to be out of luck in the kicking game. Aren’t Magic 8-Balls usually black? I swear this one is red, white, and blue…
Guru’s Pick: Crush, just by a Clay Rush field goal
8-Ball’s Pick: Destroyers
New York Dragons (-2.5) @ Cleveland Gladiators: Since Olympic lists these guys as the LAS VEGAS Gladiators, I think we may be slightly ahead of them in terms of knowledge… This quote is from a Dragons fan who emailed me disputing my pick of New York to finish 4-12 in the upcoming season. “We had no D and certainly no competence at quarterback [in 2007].” Now if the Dragons were only playing the Las Vegas Gladiators, they’d be in great shape. Unfortunately for them, these aren’t your daddy’s Gladiators anymore.
Guru’s Pick: Not-so-upset special: Glads by a tuddy
8-Ball’s Pick: Dragons
San Jose SaberCats (+1) @ Chicago Rush: The defending champs have rolled off 13 straight games, only made a couple minor changes in the offseason, open against a team who replaced a QB with a bad back with a 39-year old QB who has only made it through one of the last three seasons from wire to wire. Makes perfect sense to me that San Jose is a dog in this one. General rule of thumb: In gambling, if it looks like a fish, and smells like a fish, it’s probably fishy. That being said, I’m not going to be the sucker who picks against the champs even as a dog this early in the season. This one could be an early candidate for game of the year regardless of the outcome.
Guru’s Pick: Upset special, SaberKitties by 3
8-Ball’s Pick: SaberCats
To review…
Guru’s Picks
Avengers -8.5
Desperados -2
Storm +2
Predators +6.5
Blaze -5.5
Destroyers +6
Gladiators +2.5
SaberCats +1
8-Ball’s Picks
VooDoo +8.5
Desperados -2
Brigade -2
Predators +6.5
Rattlers +5.5
Destroyers +6
Dragons -2.5
SaberCats +1
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Correction
I need to set a blunder from my previous article entitled “Preds Set to Start Anew” straight. I mentioned that the Predators had lost ten straight games in which they trailed at any point in the second half. I failed to account for the Preds Week 12 game in Austin, when Jimmy Fryzel caught the game-winning TD pass as time expired. My apologies go out to the Predators for the incorrect information. The correct stat is that Orlando has lost 10 of their last 11 games in which they trailed at any point in the 2nd half.
Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
