Week 6 Preview and Predictions
Matt Eichenblatt
Thursday April 5, 2007
Sorry for the two-week hiatus, I was busy nursing my left shoulder after surgery to repair the torn labrum in it. Yes, even ArenaFan writers get injured too. Nevertheless, it’s back to work for a very important week in the Arena Football League.
This week features a slew of games that go under the ‘must-see TV’ category, starting off with the game between the Columbus Destroyers and the Dallas Desperados. I know what you must be thinking; ‘that’s must-see TV?’ Well, after the Destroyers 62-61 upset win over the Georgia Force last week, the Destroyers proved they can play with the big boys. Keep an eye on this one, because it should be a real barn burner.
The other games of interest this week are the contests between San Jose and Colorado, as well as the Monday Night showdown between the 4-1 Georgia Force and the 4-0 Philadelphia Soul. Both games feature explosive offenses, especially the Monday Night contest. Georgia quarterback Chris Greisen was named AFL Offensive Player of the Month, but his best challenge to date will be the Soul, led by long time star in the league, Tony Graziani. This heavyweight bout should be an absolute blast to watch. A little advice on this one: whatever the line is, take the over.
The two week break has me itching to get back into the pick’em business; hopefully the time on the IR has done me well.
Here is a look at the games in Week 6 of the AFL.
Columbus Destroyers at Dallas Desperados
Overview: The Dallas Desperados are on a roll right now, and their beating teams by embarrassing margins, to the tune of almost 21.7 points a game. Granted, the stat is inflated largely by their 61-7 obliteration of the New York Dragons in week 1, but it gets the point across. The Columbus Destroyers are feeling pretty good about themselves to, as they come off an upset win over the Georgia Force, 62-61. This win wasn’t just surprising; it was down right shocking—not because Columbus isn’t a good team, but because the Force just looked so dominant so far this season. The expectation that Georgia was going to win was so overwhelming, that 97.3 percent of ESPN’s Sportstnation poll selected the Force to win.
In their victory, The Destroyers offense came alive that game, as Matt Nagy punished his former team by managing a consistent, mistake-free game which ended up in 191 yards in the air, as well as 4 touchdowns. His ability to not turn the ball over this game is critical, because the ability of the Dallas offense to score is scary to say the least.
What makes this game so intriguing is the Destroyers ability to matchup well in the areas that Dallas specializes in. The Columbus defense is very opportunistic, and can force great offenses like Georgia into having days where they commit 4 turnovers. The defensive pressure on quarterback Clint Dolezel is going to be key in this game, but more importantly will be the work of DS Jerald Brown, who is off to a roaring start in 2007 with 3 interceptions on the year. Dallas has one of the best wide receiver cores in the AFL, second to only the Georgia Force. If Brown and the rest of the secondary has a great game, Columbus has the chance of pulling off another major upset.
Prediction: Dallas 65, Columbus 60
Utah Blaze at Austin Wranglers
Overview: The Austin Wranglers are in a very precarious position right now. Their performance over the Dallas Desperados was very encouraging last week, as they were easily the best challenge for Dallas to date, falling just short, 68-64. But unlike fellow Arenafan writer Adam Markowitz, I am not sold on the ‘Texas sized talent’ in Austin.
Sure the Wranglers have talent; player like Adrian MacPherson and Nate Coggins are loaded with talent, but lack the ‘it’ factor it takes to be great players. MacPherson can run and throw with the best of em’, but much like his days at Florida State he makes to many key mistakes to be an effective leader. Nate Coggins was a big part of Georgia’s team the past two years, and is supposed to be a major piece of that Austin puzzle. But his physicality and his willingness to take to many chances has burned him over the past three years. Mistakes by your best players will always result in losses, but if Austin can play a fundamentally sound game, they will be in great position to knock off Utah this week, and get back in the playoff hunt.
The Blaze this year are quite a surprise to me. I think everyone knew that Utah was going to be much improved this year, but the idea that they would be the dominant team 5 in the Western division five weeks in is what blows my mind. The job head coach Danny White has done this season is one of the bet in football, because he managed to build on the late season surge in 2006. Led by OS Siaha Burley and quarterback Joe Germaine, they have become one of the most efficient offenses in the league, a major key to being successful come playoff time.
This game is going to be won on the battle of turnovers. Utah can not sleep on Austin because when they get on a roll, they can be very hard to stop. The Wranglers 1-4 record is not really indicative of this team’s ability to play good football, because there is a lot of potential to be good on this squad. I like Austin to keep this a close game for a while, but Utah will be able to pull off another win by doing what is does best—playing smart football.
Take notes, Austin.
Prediction: Utah 55, Austin 47
Colorado Crush at San Jose SaberCats
Overview: After a while, you must accept things for what they are, despite prior notions. For example, despite the high expectations surrounding the team, the Colorado Crush are not the dominant team that everyone made them out to be in the preseason. Yes, they are a good team this year; but like I said before, the loss of major cogs Willis Marshall and Ahmad Hawkins have simply dropped them from the status of elite. San Jose this year is in the same category as Colorado: good. Both of these teams will make the playoffs for sure, but neither is a title contender.
This week’s game will be crucial for both, as they try to distance themselves from the middle of the pack in the American Conference. Outside of Utah and San Jose, the Western Division is mediocre at best. Unfortunately for San Jose, a loss this week would put them right in the thick of the things with teams like Los Angeles and Arizona. With 12 weeks left in the season, there is never a time to panic, but this game could means a lot down the road as the race for the postseason winds down.
This game is going to be a battle of two wily veteran quarterbacks, John Dutton and Mark Greib. Both have Arena Bowl rings, and know how to lead their teams. The defenses for both teams are not necessarily overwhelming, so the point total should for both clubs should easily eclipse the 50 point mark. The game is in San Jose, where the SaberCats over the years have had great success—it will take quite an effort for the Crush to win a tough road game to keep pace in the Central division.
Prediction: San Jose 60, Colorado 50
Arizona Rattlers vs. Los Angeles Avengers
Overview: I can not understand for the life of me, why the Rattlers are 1-4. The offense that Arizona has is plenty talented, and the defensive unit is experienced. Someone get Hunky Cooper off his couch and insert some life into this team.
Speaking of life, at 2-2 the Los Angeles Avengers are starting to show some. Despite their 66-31 thrashing on national television (can someone schedule some better games for the nation to watch please?), the Avengers are a young team on the rise, looking to make a postseason push. Avengers quarterback Sonny Cumbie is still having growing pains, but his improvement over last year is immense, a good sign for the Avengers faithful.
Again, this is a game that features two teams that need a win to clarify who they really are. If Los Angeles wins this game and improves to 3-2, they will have established themselves as a potential playoff contender. If Arizona loses this game, they will be regulated to mediocrity, and all the aspirations of winning the Western division will virtually disappear as they could fall as far as four games back behind division leading Utah.
So what will be the game changer in this contest? Without a question, it will be the Arizona defense. So far this year, the performance of the Rattlers has left much to be desired as they have given up an average of 60.6 in the game, putting them near the bottom in the points-allowed category. If Arizona wants to win, they need to have a defense that does not force their offense to score on every possession. Fortunately for the Rattlers faithful, I think this is the week they do it.
Prediction: Arizona 56, Los Angeles 54
New York Dragons at Grand Rapids Rampage
Overview: If a game is played, but nobody sees it—does it really count? That is the case in a contest between the AFL’s most incompetent teams, the New York Dragons and the Grand Rapids Rampage.
Once again, the Rampage are on a roll this year attendance wise, averaging through two games a measly 5, 574 people a game. Good people of Grand Rapids, I beseech thee: go out to the Van Andel Arena and support your team! High basketball games have better attendance, and that should embarrass you. No matter the team’s performance, it deserves better than what it is getting right now, and the past few years.
Anyways, off the attendance rant and back to football.
The game between New York and Grand Rapids this week will feature two very similar clubs. Both teams have horrid defenses, and underachieving offenses. The Dragons have more talent on the offensive side of the ball than the Rampage, that much is assured. Kevin Swayne and Mike Horacek have not been given the opportunity to make plays this season though, because of the poor play from the quarterback position. Dragon’s quarterback Rohan Davey is an improvement over Leon Murray, but not by much. His inexperience has led to some costly mistakes, and uneccesary turnovers that will kill any ball-club, especially a struggling one like the Dragons.
According to the AFL rulebook, some has to win this game. Because I believe in the fact Davey will continue to improve and Sparky McEwen will get horribly out coached by Weylan Harding that the Dragon will win this snoozer of a contest.
Prediction: New York 44, Grand Rapids 40
New Orleans VooDoo at Tampa Bay Storm
Overview: Being a football fan in Tampa Bay right now must be downright miserable. Most of the time, Buccaneer fans could take refuge in their teams disappointment by following their 5-time Arena Bowl champs for the summer. Nevermore, I suppose.
Day by day the idea that there is a curse caused by the departure of former Storm member, WR/LB Bobby Sippio, is gaining considerable strength. Also on the horizon this month for this once proud team is their one year anniversary of the last time they actually won a game. If the Storm continues on their losing streak for just three more games, it will have been an entire 365 days without a win.
Unfortunately for the Storm, things will not get any easier this week, as they play another tough division rival, the New Orleans VooDoo. The VooDoo are coming off an exciting 48-45 win over division rival Tampa Bay, in front of 16,213 boisterous fans in the Graveyard last week, which in this writer’s humble opinion, is the toughest place to play in all of Arena Football right now. The VooDoo look to build a winning streak and catch up with the division leading Georgia Force by stifling a rather anemic Storm offense.
The decisive factor in this week’s game will rest squarely on the shoulders of the Tampa Bay Storm offense. For one reason or another, this squad cannot seem to maintain a consistent rhythm for four quarters. Granted that this is the first time that many of these players have played together, but the talent assembled should be scoring more than 43 points a game on average. If the VooDoo want to keep this offense in a rut, than they must put pressure on the quarterback the entire game. After saying goodbye to John Kaleo, who knows how well this team is going to do. But one thing is for sure, Tim Marcum is going to pull out all the stops to avoid losing six straight for the first time in his career.
Call it a hunch, call it a gut feeling, call it whatever; for some reason, I can not see the Storm losing and have a Tim Marcum led club drop to 0-6.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 62, New Orleans 58
Chicago Rush at Nashville Kats
Overview: The Chicago Rush are back in championship form, flexing their muscle in a 66-31 thrashing of the Los Angeles Avengers. Led by quarterback Matt D’Orazio and AFL Offensive Player of the Week Bobby Sippio, the Rush offense put up their highest point total of the year, with 66.
The Kats this week are coming off a tough loss to division foe Colorado, as they were just a touchdown short of a much needed victory, falling 55-48. The Kats badly need to win this game, and they need to do it against a red-hot Rush team who has won four straight. The Wide Receiver core has played better lately, but I stress the importance that people other than Alonzo Nix must get open and catch the ball for them to win Saturday.
The key to the game will be the efficiency of the Kats offense, and how well they manage the game. When Nashville settles down into a rhythm, they can march up and down the field at their own pace. But when forced to score early and often, this team virtually implodes. The Kats defense has improved since adding Ahmad Hawkins, and should continue to improve this week. The Kats are going to need to rally around inexperienced quarterback Jeff Smoker, and give him time to get comfortable—if not, this can get ugly.
Prediction: Chicago 53, Nashville 48
Kansas City Brigade at Las Vegas Gladiators
Overview: The Kansas City Brigade are one of the best storylines in the early season so far; their ability to turn from a virtual bye-week to a potential postseason player is not only surprising, it’s just down right impressive. The Gladiators on the other hand are still the Gladiators of old, combing poor defense with multiple turnovers.
Shaun King still has the potential to be a very good AFL quarterback. His quick release and ability to make plays on the move makes him a dangerous threat, but he will never realize it without some better personnel to work with. OS Etu Molden and WR Kevin Prentiss are great targets, but it’s really hard to make plays when you are on your back, and the offense you are trying to lead is always playing catch-up.
The Brigade’s win 62-61 win over the Arizona Rattlers last week was probably the most impressive games in the team’s young history. Many times last year, this team would get into close contests, but never have the killer-instinct to finish the job. Finally, head coach Kevin Porter’s club are winning the ‘tough’ games that make a good football.
This week’s game should be won by the Brigade; there is no doubt about that. But that does not mean that Las Vegas can’t steal this one away. The Brigade are good, but their not ‘Dallas-good’ or ‘Philly-good’ where they can just show up and win games against teams like Las Vegas. The Brigade are going to have to continue their steady improvement and focus on getting their defense back on track, after to games in which 61 or more points were given up.
Preview: Kansas City 55, Las Vegas 39
Georgia Force at Philadelphia Soul
Overview: Finally, A game that we can finally get excited for this year! This game features two of the absolute best offenses in the Arena Football League. The Georgia Force offense can seemingly do no wrong, having scored no less than 60 points all year long. The play of first year starting quarterback Chris Greisen, reminds me a lot of Kurt Warner’s first year starting in the NFL. The ‘whoa, where did that come from?’ reaction is very similar. What is even scarier about this game is the Soul have scored no less than 63 points this year—does anyone know where to find a defense?
Since both offenses are so powerful, this game is going to come down to the defensive side of the ball. The Force easily have the advantage on the defensive line, boasting pass rushers Mike Sutton, Jermaine Smith and Earnest Allen. But when it comes to the secondary the Soul’s group of Mike Brown, Eddie Moten and Johnnie Harris blows them away.
This game is going to be a close one that much I can assure you. The Force have got to improve their kickoff coverage and limit mistakes on Monday night, because a team like the Soul will not let you make a comeback like Columbus almost did. The Soul have not faced a notable team to date, so this is really their first ‘real’ challenge. ESPN has waited for a good matchup to put on in primetime, and fans everywhere should be excited for this one. Look for a high-scoring game, but a close Georgia win.
Prediction: Georgia 67, Philadelphia 66
Matt Eichenblatt is a free-lance writer from the Atlanta area. He has followed Arena Football since 1999 and has been attending Georgia Force games since they moved from Nashville five years ago. As well as being a football enthusiast, he is also looking forward to graduating from the University of Alabama with a degree in Finance and Communications.
