Week 3 Preview and Predictions
Matt Eichenblatt
Thursday March 15, 2007
When I looked to my crystal ball last week to predict the games, no one ever told me that the Avengers flash of brilliance against San Jose the week before was no fluke. Where were the Gladiators when I need them, anyway? Pick them in week one to beat Austin, and then turn right around and have Shaun King blaze the Gladiators to a decisive 79-69 victory at Grand Rapids last weekend. Point is, last week was not exactly the week you would expect when predicting games.
Now for last week’s record, drum roll please.
Last week was an abysmal one for me, as last week’s record finished at 4-5, to drop me to 10-8 on the season. The parody in the AFL is pretty good this year, and the games seem to be more unpredictable with the free-substitution changes. Good for the league, bad for me. Back to the drawing board I suppose. I happen to really like the new changes to the league, and the “Elway Rule” is just fine with me, because the quality of play is getting better. What more could you want?
Alright, on to Week 3 of the 2007 AFL season. This week we have two key Southern Division match-ups. Austin travels to the Jungle to face Orlando on that dreaded Friday night, and the division leading Georgia Force go to Tampa Bay in hopes of putting Tim Marcum’s club in a deep 0-3 hole to start the year. But keep your eyes out west for the Arizona Rattlers visit to the Pepsi Center to play the Colorado Crush in what looks like, the game of the week.
Last week wasn’t so hot, so let’s give it another whirl. Here is what is in store for this week.
Philadelphia Soul at Grand Rapids Rampage
Overview: Kudos to the Grand Rapids Rampage last week for turning last week’s game, into one of the most exciting ones of the early season. When fans saw that Grand Rapids and Las Vegas were the matchup for AFLnet on Thursday night, you could hear the groans around the country. But what was supposed to be a patty-cake match, ended up being a real barn-burner that Grand Rapids just ended up on the losing end of the stick.
Quarterback Matt Sauk filled in admirably for the injured Chad Salisbury, tossing a whopping 360 yards and 7 touchdowns. What killed the Rampage last week was their secondary, and it looks to be as vulnerable as ever as Tony Graziani, fresh off his own efficient performance against the Nashville Kats last week, took advantage.
Graziani & Co. were rude guests last week in Nashville, as they scored at will. The Soul defense created three sacks and forced three turnovers and spent most of the night in the Nashville backfield. The Nashville receivers (who I still say can not make a big play) were never able to get into a groove, and were kept in check by the veteran secondary of Mike Brown and Eddie Moten. The Soul will have another opportunity this week to force turnovers, as the Grand Rapid offensive line will not stand for much of a challenge protecting interim quarterback, Matt Sauk.
Key Matchup: The Soul’s D-line versus the Soul’s O-line. Philadelphia ravaged Clint Stoerner last week, and forced him into tough situations. Sauk is a much easier quarterback to fluster, and if the Rampage want to get things going on offense, they better keep the likes of OL/DL Dwayne Missouri out of the backfield.
Prediction: Philadelphia 62, Grand Rapids 43
Austin Wranglers at Orlando Predators
Overview: Well Orlando, you have a lot to explain. In front of a national audience and 12,000 fans in the Jungle, you choked away a win that really should have been yours. That drop in the endzone on third down in overtime? Priceless. Jay Gruden gave his best “Chucky” face impersonation, and even that could not will the Predators to victory. Well, the mojo is back for Orlando: The Jungle is open on Friday night. I have been to the Amway Center on a Friday night for a division game, and it is a culture shock. The fans are rowdy, the noise is loud, and the team just seems to always play better. If Shane Stafford can ever get his offense in gear, the Predators can attack a mediocre, yet physical Wranglers secondary.
I would not wish the Wranglers current road trip on anyone. Having to play the Force at home, who are 16-4 at Phillips Arena since Doug Plank took over the team, then turn around and face a seething Predators team on a Friday night in the Jungle, that’s downright cruel. Fortunately, the Wranglers have Adrian MacPherson coming around at the right time. While he might not necessarily be welcome in the state of Florida for the rest of his life following his gambling transgressions at Florida State, A.D. Mac looks to continue to improve and get back to his former-self as an AFL quarterback. This is undoubtedly a big game for both teams, as neither want to fall another game back in the toughest division in the AFL.
Key Matchup: Wrangler DB Nate Coggins versus Predator WR DeAndrew Rubin. With Jimmy Fryzel on IR and a case of the drops plaguing the Predators right now, Rubin will have to forget about last week and make some plays. Coggins is a physical corner who will virtually mug you at the line, but his tendency to gamble too much makes him very beatable.
Prediction: Orlando 51, Austin 47
Dallas Desperados at Kansas City Bridgade
Overview: Last week went by, and the Dallas Desperados embarrassed another team. What else is new? Clint Dolezel ended up throwing for his usual 8 touchdowns and the connection with Will Pettis and Marcus Nash continues to be a force in this seemingly unstoppable offense. But the Desperados have to remember this week that despite their success, this week will not be a pushover. This Brigade team is not last year’s squad.
The Brigade are coming back home this week, the site of their week one upset of the defending champion, Chicago Rush. The fans in the Kemper Arena proved to be a big boost to this team as the defense stepped up in the final moments to secure a win. Last week, they were in another close game with new division rival, Colorado but couldn’t repeat their Week 1 magic and lost 44-40 in the Pepsi Center. At 1-1, the Brigade have a lot to be optimistic about, and they might be the surprise team to make the playoffs in the American Conference, especially considering Nashville’s current struggles.
Key Matchup: Brigade QB Raymond Philyaw versus the Dallas secondary of Jermaine Jones, Chris Brown and Bobby Keeves. The Desperados are going to score a lot of points, that much is a given. If the Brigade want to have a shot in the closing minutes like they did in Colorado last week, Philyaw needs to have a great game.
Prediction: Dallas 55, Kansas City 50
Arizona Rattlers at Colorado Crush
Overview: This is game of the week material. When Sherdrick Bonner and John Dutton come together, you know the scoreboards are going to be lit up. The Rattlers are in a very precarious situation. Despite playing very well the past two weeks, Arizona finds themselves at 0-2, and up against another formidable opponent. For Arizona, after this week’s game, the brutal opening stretch of games of Georgia, Utah and Colorado comes to a merciful end. If the Rattlers can find some defense to keep the leads the offense puts up, Arizona should be fine. Right now, Arizona is averaging 68 points an outing—and that should be plenty to win, even with a mediocre defense.
Colorado is coming off a gritty 44-40 win over a fiesty Brigade team and is now on their last leg of a three game homestand. The Crush are concerned about OS Damian Harrell who is questionable with a quad injury. If the Crush do not have Harrell for this week’s game, they will be in a real bind offensively. Ever since the loss of Willis Marshall, the Colorado offense does not have the weapons outside of Harrell to put up a lot of points. The fate of this week’s game rests on the shoulders of the Colorado Crush Doctors.
Key Matchup: Rattlers DBs Joseph Todd and Randy Gatewood versus Crush WR Willie Quinnie. Even if Harrell plays, he will not be at full speed, putting the pressure on Quinnie to be Dutton’s go-to guy. If Quinnie is shutdown, Colorado will have to face a tough 1-2 start.
Prediction: Arizona 64, Colorado 51
Georgia Force at Tampa Bay Storm
Overview: For the Georgia Force, this matchup with Tampa Bay is a trap game. Despite Tampa Bay’s struggles, the Storm have always had success against the Force in the St. Pete Times Forum, and Tim Marcum seems to always give Georgia quarterback fits. This game is going to be a real test for Force QB Chris Greisen, who makes his first ever divisional road game start this Saturday. The Force had some injuries last week, and it is still up in the air whether DL Mike Sutton will be able to play. WR Derek Lee was also dinged up last week against Austin, and he too is one to watch on the injury report.
Tampa Bay already reeling in Week 3 and it’s getting to be panic time for Tim Marcum. Without a kicker or a playmaking receiver, the Storm are lacking the tools needed to compete in the Southern division on a weekly basis. The insertion of QB John Kaleo into the lineup so far has been a dud. The Storm traded WR Demetrus Bendross this past week in an effort to get free agent acquisition Terrill Shaw more involved in the game plan. While Tampa can always rely on a fantastic gameplan from Marcum, I do not know if they have the horses to execute it this time around.
Key Matchup: The Georgia secondary versus Lawrence Samuels, Tolliver and Shaw. If the secondary hangs with them for most of the game, the offense will easily score enough points to ensure a win. But like most meetings between these teams, the score is always closer than you can predict.
Prediction: Georgia 55, Tampa Bay 52
New York Dragons at Chicago Rush
Overview: Welcome back to professional football, New York! In the Arena Football League, we like to emphasize scoring, so we have rules allowing receivers to go in forward motion before the snap, and force linebackers to stay within a restricted box to emphasis passing We love high-scoring action, so get in there, show us what you got!
Alright, that should be enough sarcasm for the day.
The New York Dragons are coming off a much needed bye, following an opening day 60-7 flogging on national television, at the hands of the Desperados. With Rohan Davey starting at quarterback this week, there is not much to suggest how exactly this team is going to do. Hopefully, the offense scores more than seven points.
Chicago must focus on their opponent this week, because no matter how far down New York gets, head coach, Weylan Harding will have this team prepared to fight for its dignity following their loss two weeks ago. The Rush are coming off an exciting win over their new division rivals, the Kansas City Brigade, and should be in position to snag another home win this week.
Key Matchup: Weylan Harding versus his own Dragons squad. 0-1 is not the end of the world, and if Harding can preach some hope to that team, the Dragons will have a shot, but with a rookie quarterback under center this week, do not count on any miracles.
Prediction: New York 48, Chicago 35
Utah Blaze at Nashville Kats
Overview: The Nashville Kats have unfolded exactly how I predicted them too. When Daryl Hammond, Jarrick Hillery, T.T. Tolliver and Cory Flemming all departed, everyone knew there was going to be trouble finding a big play receiver for Clint Stoerner to hang his hat on. Two games into the season and there are still concerns over a group of average receivers. Over the past week, I received several e-mails from Kats fans, defending their receiving corps. The battle cry for players like Alonzo Nix to be named as a top receiver was in full chorus, yet when Philadelphia held them to 30 points in their blowout loss last week, the clamoring magically stopped. Nashville needs someone outside of Nix to catch the football. The Nashville defense is not that bad, but an offense like the one the Kats have now will not compete with an offense like Utah’s this week.
Blaze QB Joe Germaine was phenomenal, in their 75-71 comeback win over the Arizona Rattlers last week. Germaine threw for a mind-boggling 438 yards and 10 touchdowns, as the Blaze managed to keep their perfect record. The Kats do not get beat deep often, but are very vulnerable to underneath routes. If the Blaze maintain steady drives all game long, their defense should be able to stop a struggling Kats offense.
Key Matchup: The Kats O-line versus the Blaze D-line. Clint Stoerner was sacked three times and hurried even more in their loss to Philadelphia last week, and was forced into compromising situations. If pressure is once again applied to Stoerner, expect the Kats to be 0-3 come Monday Morning.
Prediction: Utah 64, Nashville 44
New Orleans VooDoo at Las Vegas Gladiators
Overview: The Shaun King coming out party happened a week later than I wanted, but now that it has happened, watch out AFL. This Joe Hamilton prototype has all the skills to be a successful AFL quarterback, and he is capable of doing what he did to Grand Rapids last week again. Unfortunately for King and the rest of the Gladiator-faithful, almost the entire receiving corps is in the infirmary and it does not look to be improving. I know King is talented, but you have to have someone catch the ball for you.
Irony has the New Orleans Voo Doo playing on the road in the Orleans Arena (in Nevada). The VooDoo are fresh off an exciting 52-45 homecoming victory in front of a sold out crowd. Despite having to leave the comforts of home, the VooDoo should do well this week in Vegas. The VooDoo defense has been solid, and the pressure they put on Columbus Destroyers quarterback Matt Nagy last week was game-changing. If Shaun King has to wait on backups to get open all game long, it could be a good night for the VooDoo defense.
Key Matchup: Gladiator QB Shaun King versus VooDoo QB Andy Kelly. King is at a disadvantage this week because of injuries on his team, but if he can somehow create some momentum for the offense, the Gladiators have a shot to make a game out of it.
Prediction: New Orleans 44, Las Vegas 32
Matt Eichenblatt is a free-lance writer from the Atlanta area. He has followed Arena Football since 1999 and has been attending Georgia Force games since they moved from Nashville five years ago. As well as being a football enthusiast, he is also looking forward to graduating from the University of Alabama with a degree in Finance and Communications.
