2011 Season
	Pts/Dr	OFF+	PGU/Dr	DEF+	EXCH+	DST+
National Conference
ARI	5.203	0.661	4.026	0.459	1.12	2.89
CHI	4.289	-0.216	3.776	0.588	0.372	4
DAL	4.801	0.391	4.559	-0.192	0.199	1.06
SPO	4.893	0.385	4.716	-0.227	0.159	0.83
American Conference
JAX	5.297	0.809	3.94	0.353	1.162	2.11
CLE	4.652	0.25	4.324	0.043	0.293	1.89
GEO	4.575	0.15	4.198	0.144	0.295	0.44
ORL	4.478	0.025	4.149	0.26	0.285	-0.89

(Best ranking in bold, worst in italics)

 

I’ve decided to simplify things for reading purposes. I want to throw more categories of information out there, and the difference between Points Per Possession and Adjusted Points Per Possession made for terrible reading.

 

Here’s a guide in case you’ve been following along:

 

Pts/Dr: Points per drive. This is the number of points a team’s offense scores, on average, each time they take the field. I don’t count drives under 10 seconds if they’re only one play and unsuccessful, since that seems unfair to an offense. I also don’t count clock-killing drives – the goal of those is to end the game, not score points, so I don’t want to hold that against a team.

 

PGU/Dr: Points Given Up/Drive: The same rules apply to defenses and the number of points they give up every time they take the field.

 

OFF+: A team’s OFF+ takes their average points/drive and compares it with their expected output, based on their opponents’ PGU/Dr. It’s adjusted so each team accounts for the proper weight based on drives against them. This helps adjust for strength of opponent.

 

DEF+: A team’s DEF+ takes their average PGU/drive and compares it with their expected stopping power, based on opponents’ Pts/Dr. Same process as OFF+, just the opposite side of the ball. Positive values are good in the tables only because I wanted simplicity in that positive numbers will always reflect positive value in a unit.

 

EXCH+: This is how many points a team comes out ahead on each possession exchange based on who they played. It’s a simple addition of OFF+ and DEF+.

 

DST+: Because defensive and special teams scores can be so capricious, I didn’t want to give them value in the database. However, since the eight playoff teams are all within the top 10 in DST scoring, I have to include it for potential value. (Milwaukee actually led the league in DST scoring this year and was second in DST+, scoring 58 points more than their opponents, but nearly all of their success came in the final three weeks of the season, where they outscored New Orleans, Iowa and a lackadaisical Chicago team 54-0 on DST.)

 

The most significant change came in Jacksonville’s regaining the top spot after dismantling a somewhat disinterested-looking Shock team in Florida on NFL Network. If not for that, then nearly all of the best and the worst statistics in the playoffs would belong to National Conference teams.

 

Many people on this website have documented the struggles of the American Conference teams coming down the stretch, saying it seemed like nobody wanted to be in the playoffs. I set out to check on the “down the stretch” numbers for every team. I used the final third of the season, encompassing six weeks, to allow a bit of evening out to occur for the numbers but to still keep it relatively recent.

 

Here are the numbers for our final eight as they head into the playoffs:

 

Last 6 Games
	Pts/Dr	OFF+	PGU/Dr	DEF+	EXCH+	DST+
National Conference
ARI	5.932	1.242	4.194	0.287	1.529	0
CHI	4.409	-0.323	3.925	0.581	0.257	1.5
DAL	4.862	0.669	4.652	-0.111	0.558	2.5
SPO	5.313	0.968	5.164	-0.525	0.444	0.33
American Conference
JAX	5.235	0.639	4.378	0.001	0.64	1.25
CLE	4.855	0.212	4.433	-0.09	0.122	4.83
GEO	4.623	0.199	3.866	0.182	0.381	2.67
ORL	4.209	-0.317	4.413	-0.24	-0.557	1

(Best ranking in bold, worst in italics)

 

Now, again, there are limitations in numbers. Aggregate numbers, for example, can’t tell you how differently the Predators’ offense runs when Nick Hill runs it compared to how it doesn’t when Collin Drafts runs it. Similarly, while Spokane’s Kyle Rowley has had some great performances, there’s no doubt that a lot of Spokane’s improved OFF+ rating was due to the injured Erik Meyer’s performance. Russ Michna’s injury was felt less in Chicago, largely because their offense wasn’t particularly good even with Michna under center.

 

With all that said, playoff time is here! Let’s pick the games! Last week I rested my starters and went 2-7, the only wins coming from the only two games that had any bearing whatsoever on the playoffs. (Thank you, Georgia and Orlando!) Let’s go in order of game time.

 

Orlando at Jacksonville: Postponing this pick in favor of NFL free agency coverage.

 

Dallas Vigilantes at Chicago Rush: Dallas is coming into the postseason with one of the hottest offenses going. They have top-notch wide receivers and the best running game in the league. However, Chicago has already beaten them twice, dominating the second half. Second half domination is huge because that’s when teams tend to start to mix up their coverage more on opposing quarterbacks – coaches aren’t going to show all their cards right away. Chicago has scored on 10 of 11 second-half possessions against the Vigilantes, showing that whatever Dallas is doing in the second half doesn’t work. The Rush, however, have held Dallas to scores on just 6/11 drives after only getting two first-half stops (and a missed FG “drive”).  

 

Spokane Shock at Arizona Rattlers: Kyle Rowley has never lost a start against Arizona and the Shock are the defending champions – that’s honestly about everything that’s going Spokane’s way in this matchup. Arizona had plenty of time to ensure they were prepared for the loss of Rod Windsor and Fabrizio Scaccia to the NFL, and Chris Jackson and Jason Witczak, while not on the level of the guys they’re replacing, sure aren’t just replacement guys. The Shock get Markee White back this week after getting Greg Orton back last week from the gasping-for-life UFL, but if defense is what wins championships, it’s difficult to see the Shock getting out of the desert into the next round. Arizona rattled (get it?) off nine straight wins to end the season and are looking primed to win the ArenaBowl.

 

Orlando Predators at Jacksonville Sharks: First, I wanted to pick Orlando – it just seems right that they sneak in as the No. 4 seed and beat a listing Sharks team in the first round. Then I looked at the numbers and thought back – for as poorly as Jacksonville performed down the stretch, the Predators were even worse, amassing the worst EXCH+ among the playoff teams in the final six games of the season. Then I remembered that Drafts was the starting quarterback for most of the team’s offensive ineptitude and Nick Hill was back and leading the Predators to franchise highs in points. And as I wrote this paragraph, I changed it back to Jacksonville solely based on the fact that their offense is better, their defense is better, and their defensive/special teams scoring is better. If I’m going down in the playoffs, I’ve got to go down with my “system”. Someone get Hank Williams, Jr.; we’re going to have some Monday Night Football!

 

Georgia Force at Cleveland Gladiators:Everyone seems to be praising the wrong unit in Cleveland. The league consistently cites their defense for its excellent performance this season due to low point totals – the only reason the Gladiators surrender few points is because they play slow Arena Football without John Dutton at the helm. Cleveland actually gave up more points per drive than any of the other three American Conference playoff teams – they just played roughly one fewer drive per game. Their offense, however, was the second-best in the conference in terms of OFF+. They may be slow and steady, but their turtle managed to win the race more often than not. That said, Georgia is a hotter team now than Cleveland, and it’s not going to help Cleveland to lose their best receiver (and one of the best in the sport). Georgia has won its last three games on the road and I think they can continue it for another week.

Brian Beaudry has been both an intern and a Director of Communications within the AFL and occasionally provides analysis of the league and the Portland Thunder as an Oregon resident. He maintains a blog, Wrong Way Sports, and you can reach him with research or graphic design suggestions on Twitter at @BeaudryPDX.