Betting on ArenaBowl XXVIII
Adam Markowitz
Wednesday August 26, 2015
Betting lines are posted for the ArenaBowl, and as of the publishing of this article on Wednesday morning, the San Jose SaberCats are favored by 11.5 points over the Jacksonville Sharks. The total for the game is set at 103.5.
Now, we don't condone gambling here at ArenaFan (much), but for those of you who have been known to place a few bucks on the 50-yard indoor war, here are some helpful tips for you to make a little cash on the game.
The SaberCats started off the season going 6-1-1 ATS in their first eight games, but they only finished out the regular season at 10-7-1 ATS. They have split their first two games in the playoffs from an ATS standpoint, covering just barely against the Portland Thunder but failing against the Arizona Rattlers in the National Conference Championship Game.
This San Jose team might end up going down as the best team in AFL history, but it is also going to go down as the team which had the most embarrassing moment in AFL history, too. The SaberCats' one loss this year came against the Los Angeles KISS, a game which they lost as 32-point favorites. San Jose wasn't favored in another game by a margin like that this year, and it was the biggest statistical upset from a betting standpoint in league history.
Jacksonville went just 8-10 ATS this year, but the team did rally in the middle of the season after starting just 1-5 ATS. The Sharks were underdogs both at the Orlando Predators and at the Philadelphia Soul in the playoffs, and they covered both games with ease. In fact, there hasn't even been a point in these playoffs in which the Sharks were trailing.
One would think that home field advantage for the SaberCats (even with the game being played in Stockton) would be a huge edge for bettors. However, regardless as to whether we are talking about a point spread or just winning the game straight up, being the home team has certainly not always had its advantages.
Home teams are just 10-11 in 21 non-neutral site ArenaBowls. Matters are even worse for home teams from a betting standpoint. The host club is just 8-13 ATS in the championship game.
Since the re-launch of the AFL, there have been three non-neutral site ArenaBowls. These Sharks have already won one of those games on the road, the epic ArenaBowl XXIV in Phoenix over the Rattlers in which Aaron Garcia won his one and only championship. The Spokane Shock beat and covered the Tampa Bay Storm with ease in ArenaBowl XXIII. Last season, the Rattlers went on the road and beat up the Cleveland Gladiators 72-32, a game in which they were favored even though they were the road team.
The Sharks have had a knack this year of playing to the level of their opponents. They now have a 5-4 record against teams which won at least 10 games this year, including winning three of their last four both straight up and against the spread.
San Jose had a perfect season against playoff teams, going a perfect 12-0 straight up, beating those teams by an average of 22.8 points per game. However, a lot of that hefty margin of victory was built up playing the lousy teams out West. Against the eastern playoff teams, the SaberCats only went 1-2 ATS, beating Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Jacksonville by an average of just 13.7 points per game.
Back in Week 4, the Sharks were beaten at home by this San Jose side 68-48, a game which the SaberCats easily covered at -10.5. The total was only 94.5 at that point, one which easily went over.
