With Playoff Spot on the Line, Preds/VooDoo Might Be Amway's Most Important Event

Adam Markowitz
Tuesday July 23, 2013

There are very few cities in this country that really have the opportunity to revolve around the Arena Football League, even for a day. Even here in the City Beautiful, the Orlando Magic are king, and Orlando City Soccer is clearly ramping up the support to quickly become the firm #2 act in town. However, if there were ever a night for the Orlando Predators to take center stage, it would be on Saturday against the New Orleans VooDoo. Not only is this the most important game that the Predators have played in quite some time, but it might be the most notable event that the three-year old Amway Center has ever seen.

And yes, I know that there are 41 Magic games a year, and yes, I know that the NBA All-Star Game has been in town, and yes, I know that there have been various college basketball games and the likes here as well. None of those events though, had anywhere near the impact both on the field and in the economy like the Preds and VooDoo will have on Saturday.

Let's get past the first item of business. I know. This is still just arena football, and half the city of Orlando probably doesn't even know that the Predators still exist. I get it. I really do.

Let's also call the Magic for what they are right now, too. They stink. They had the worst record in the NBA last season, and this year probably won't be all that much better. Sure, they made the playoffs the first year the building was open, but the games meant nothing from the point that Dwight Howard got injured. All of those playoff games against the Indiana Pacers were trivial, because even if Orlando had pulled off the huge upset in the first round of the playoffs, it was only destined to get swept by the Miami Heat in the second round.

I can listen to arguments about the 2012 NBA All-Star Game being the most impactful event in the city's history, and there is definitely truth to that. The estimated $95M that was generated for the local economy during All-Star Weekend won't be touched by any single event in this city in quite some time. However, there was no intrigue when it came to the game itself. No one really cared whether the East beat the West or vice versa. In fact, most (including yours truly) wouldn't have a clue who won the All-Star Game without looking it up.

(The West won 152-149. You can sleep easier now that you know that.)

However, if you believe that there is virtually no economic impact to the Predators for the city of Orlando, you're out of your mind. Losing this game gives the team's owners no choice whatsoever but to issue credits for next year's season ticket holders who are returning from 2013 under the Predators Performance Guarantee.

Though the team has not responded to a request as to how many season ticket holders that it has in 2013, some of my cohorts and I have arbitrarily decided that the number is probably conservatively around 5,000 or so. If there are 5,000 season ticket holders, and the average cost of a season ticket is around $200 each, that's $1M in tickets. If Orlando loses on Saturday, it would have finished the season at 6-12, causing a 40% rebate on next year's season tickets.

That's $400,000 in lost revenues for next season, and for a team that is almost certainly operating in the red, that number could hurt tremendously.

However, the terms of the Predators Performance Guarantee do state that it could be modified if the team gets into the playoffs. Perhaps the Preds could go on to win the ArenaBowl, and if that were the case, the argument could be made that the team should not have to rebate any money to season ticket holders. Of course, there has been no statement made of the sort, so we're playing the guessing game, but regardless, there is definitely an impact to be had.

And of course, there's the possible economic impact of the ArenaBowl itself. When the ArenaBowl in Orlando was first announced, the Orlando Business Journal stated that the economic impact on the city of Orlando could be as high as $15M. That seems like an awfully high number to me, but we'll go with it when you consider the money that the KISS concert is going to bring in as well.

There is a major difference though, between the Predators being in the ArenaBowl and not being in the ArenaBowl. Predators season ticket holders have already been guaranteed tickets to the title game this year, but how many will actually be there if the Preds aren't in the game? Just speaking to fans that I know, roughly 40% have said that they won't be going to the game if their team isn't in the game.

Those tickets that are already sold will be leaked back out to the market but be sold privately, likely costing the city a solid 2,000 tickets sold to the game. If we are right in assuming that there are around 5,000 season ticket holders, that means the Preds are averaging around 6,500 walk up fans per game. Those walk up fans aren't walking up if the Philadelphia Soul are playing against the Arizona Rattlers in the game.

Just on that statement alone, that's probably 6,500 actual tickets that won't be sold to the game. 6,500 tickets at an average ticket price of $50 apiece is $325,000. There are probably also another 3,000 cars that won't be parking times $20 ($60,000), and likely an average of at least $20 a head at the concession stands ($130,000).

Between the ArenaBowl costs and the costs to the Predators for the Performance Guarantee, we're up near a million bucks of impact.

But this game though, isn't just an average game between the Predators and the Fighting Fill-in-the-Blanks. This is a game that will determine whether the Predators or the VooDoo will get into the playoffs. It's a divisional game, and the stakes absolutely could not be higher, especially knowing that the American Conference portion of the playoffs is clearly wide open for anyone to take.

Now throw in the fact that there is a bit of a history between these two teams. VooDoo Head Coach Pat O'Hara was of course, the head coach of the Preds in 2010 and 2011, and he was the quarterback of the team in the 1990s as well. He quarterbacked the team to its first championship in 1998, and he was arguably one of the best quarterbacks the team has ever had.

Speaking of quarterbacks, there will be a familiar one playing for the VooDoo in the form of Chris Dixon. Dixon started the year with the Preds before getting injured in a loss to the Tampa Bay Storm. While he was hurt, the team went out and traded for Aaron Garcia, and in his words, Dixon was never given a shot to take over as the team's starting quarterback when he became healthy. Just like O'Hara, he was essentially ushered out of Orlando.

Brett Bouchy might have nothing to do with the Predators any longer, but he threw some fuel on this fire as well. The day after the team announced that he was no longer with the team, Bouchy stated on 104.1 FM, "What will make it even better is we will eliminate Pat O'Hara and New Orleans."

No one on New Orleans' side is coming out and saying that this game is personal, but let's face the facts and call them what they are.

This game is personal.

I have long chastised the city of Orlando and its media outlets for not giving more publicity to the Predators. Sure, the game isn't the same, and it isn't nearly as marketable, but it's still what Orlando has outside of the Magic (and now, Orlando City and the Solar Bears). If there was ever a point that everyone should stop and take notice, it's right now. You wouldn't know it on the exterior, but this little ol' AFL game between a 5-12 team and a 6-11 team might end up being the most important game that the new Amway Center has ever seen.

Central Florida's taxpayers approved this Taj Mahal to be built, and this is what they paid for. They paid for drama. They paid for the local economy to be bolstered. They paid for meaningful playoff games.

We haven't seen a game that has it all in this building before, but we're going to see it on Saturday.

Light up the pillar outside of the Amway Center black and red for the whole city to see, because this one is going to be a war with an entire season and then some on the line for both the New Orleans VooDoo and the Orlando Predators. It's that level of importance and competition that this city hasn't seen since the dawn of the Amway Center.