Beat the Guru: AFL Week 5
Adam Markowitz
Friday April 30, 2010
As I was taping the podcast as a guest on the AFL Roundtable last night, I was discussing the idea of putting Arena Football teams in cities where the AFL has already failed, and in some cases failed miserably. We saw it with all of the franchises in the Carolinas. We saw it with a number of franchises in Texas. This would be like someone coming up with the bright idea of, "Hey, let's give West Palm Beach, FL a team again!" and then wonder why they can count every single fan in attendance and still have fingers leftover.
My gripe this week isn't about how cities keep getting these teams though, it's how some coaches just seem to continue to get jobs.
I'm looking at you, Sparky McEwen.
I mean really, in three years with the Grand Rapids Rampage, you successfully won a grand total of two road games. That's right. Two. Not two per year. Just two.
I can argue that no coach in the history of the AFL ever got less out of more than good ol' Sparky did in Grand Rapids, and that includes the fact that Will McClay might've had two of the best AFL teams ever assembled without even making it to an ArenaBowl with the Dallas Desperados.
So last week, picking against Oklahoma City at Iowa made all the sense in the world. Why? Because only a Sparky McEwen coached team could have the ball up ten points late in the third quarter and figure out how to not only blow it, but to lose by more points than the closing spread.
Someone please explain to me how this man is still allowed anywhere near an AFL arena. Geez, I should just start a weekly article where I just rip people in this league... You know, maybe that's not such a bad idea... Boy, if that's not a teaser, I don't know what is!
Oh, how rude of me! Happy belated birthday, Sparky. McEwen turned the big 4-2 on Wednesday.
On to the previous weeks!
There are plenty of accolades to hand out, as I missed grading the last two weeks worth of action on the ArenaFan message boards. In Week 3, I only went a lousy 3-4 against the spread. A whole mess of folks topped me by going 4-3, but the one that stood out was fluence21, who successfully went a whopping 6-1 and not only beat the Guru, but beat the snot out of everyone else as well.
In Week 4, the Guru came a couple Tampa Bay turnovers away from going the perfect 4-0. I'll have to settle for a 3-1 week. As for my gambling-intellectual equals for the week, the list includes Talons100 and BiffNixon, who matched me a 3-1. YowDawg swept the board at 4-0. Nicely done, my green-clad friend from Alabama.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. Lines courtesy of Olympic Sportsbook as of Friday morning.
Iowa Barnstormers (+6) @ Orlando Predators: Here's a case of the infamous Movable Force vs. the Resistible Object. For my money, the Orlando offense has been the most underachieving group all season long in the league. Iowa's defense however, has allowed at least 60 points in all three of its games. I never thought I would see the day that Ryan Vena was the better quarterback in an AFL game... but alas, here we are. The Barnstormers may be storming the Jungle tonight.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Barnstormers by 3
Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz (+11) @ Dallas Vigilantes: You know how hard it is to type in Vigilantes over and over instead of Desperados? I mean, isn't this Dallas team the exact same one that lost Clint Dolezel at the beginning of the '08 season? Squad was supposed to go 16-0, then lost their quarterback, then became a mediocre team, and ultimately couldn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs? I watched this Colin Drafts kid try to play quarterback two weeks ago in Tampa Bay, and it wasn't pretty. Please, Sparky. I know you're not winning this game, but can you figure out how to stay within 11 points, pretty, pretty please???
Guru's Pick: The artists formerly known as the Desperados by just 6
Bossier Shreveport Battle Wings (-11) @ Utah Blaze: The Blaze looked remotely competent the last time that they took the field at home against Alabama, but this is a significantly different test that they are facing this week. There's no doubt that Bossier City is scoring against this pitiful Utah defense. The question is whether the Wings can find enough defense to stop the Blaze. We have to believe that Bossier is going to muster a few stops in this game and take it going away.
Guru's Pick: B-Wings by 16
Tulsa Talons (OTB) @ Jacksonville Sharks: Toughest game of the week, and I don't even think it's remotely close. Tulsa proved that it belonged last week by fighting tooth and nail with a very good Arizona team for a full 60 minutes. The test at Jacksonville is going to be an awfully similar one. HC Les Moss has a team that really hasn't played anyone yet, as games against Oklahoma City, Alabama, and Orlando aren't ringing endorsements for what his team has the potential to do. But one thing I do love is that home crowd, and I'll go with the hosts to use the ninth man to their advantage to take a relatively close one with the Talons.
Guru's Pick: Shark Attack by 6
Arizona Rattlers (OTB) @ Tampa Bay Storm: When I looked at the schedule and saw that I was going to get opportunities to see both Orlando and Tampa Bay play at home this week, I sort of smirked and said, "Ha, I get to see both of Brett Bouchy's teams lose in the same weekend." 'Nugh said.
Guru's Pick: Storm by 11
Milwaukee Iron (OTB) @ Alabama Vipers: Let's give the Milwaukee offense all the credit in the world. No one is stopping this team's offense. QB Chris Greisen is just head and shoulders above everyone else in this league, and he has some fantastic wide receivers. Alabama shouldn't be able to hold a candle to the Iron, but this could be a quirky little contest for the visitors. If the Vipers start playing that wild onside kick game as they did against Jacksonville a few weeks back, not only could we see the first 106-104 final score in professional football history, but they may have a shot to get a stop or two and win this game. Hope you're paying attention in Sweet Home Alabama. I just gave you your game plan for victory.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Vipers by 2
Cleveland Gladiators (OTB) @ Spokane Shock: Last week was clearly missing some with good ol' Four Pick on a bye. But yes, not to worry, QB John Dutton is back, and inevitably, he'll at least be up to ten interceptions for the year by the time this game at Spokane is done with.
Guru's Pick: Spokane by 2 Dutton INTs (13 points)
Recap
Iowa +6
Oklahoma City +11
Bossier City -11
Jacksonville by 6
Tampa Bay by 11
Alabama by 2
Spokane by 13
Beat the Guru's Top 10 (Must have 11 games selected to qualify)
| YowDawg | 16 | 6 | 72.73% |
| Samcro | 8 | 4 | 66.67% |
| AFLGuru | 14 | 8 | 63.64% |
| Dallas | 7 | 4 | 63.64% |
| dthomas4233 | 8 | 6 | 57.14% |
| fluence21 | 9 | 7 | 56.25% |
| Rush43 | 12 | 10 | 54.55% |
| Talons100 | 6 | 5 | 54.55% |
| kryscio23 | 11 | 11 | 50.00% |
| BiffNixon | 8 | 8 | 50.00% |
For all of your AFL betting information and to get a look at the Guru's best plays for the weekend, check out his forum at Sports Prescription.
See how well you can do against the Guru. Make your picks here. Winners will be recognized weekly.
