Beat the Guru: AFL Divisional Round
Adam Markowitz
Thursday July 3, 2008
Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.
Now let’s make a goal to never mention them again this season.
Wild Card weekend saw me go 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 on totals, which was good enough to move me back on to level terms with the “Arena Guru” of ArenaFootballOnline. You may have won the regular season battle, my friend, but I will certainly win the war. I’ll even put a hand grenade in New Orleans on the line for it. How’s that sound, buddy? You can check out his response in our ongoing (and increasing) banter in his weekly article at AFO.
As for us playing both sides and totals at ArenaFan, it was a largely unsuccessful week for most of the entrants, as only four of the 13 entrants successfully went .500 or better. Here are the standings after the first four games of the playoffs.
Beat the Guru’s Playoff Standings
EKUVolley: 5-3 (5 pts)
AFLGuru: 4-4 (4 pts)
Chrisncory: 4-4 (4 pts)
Rush43: 4-4 (4 pts)
8-Ball: 3-5 (3 pts)
Es46ne10: 3-5 (3 pts)
SJ’Cats DHF: 3-5 (3 pts)
AFLJunkie: 2-6 (2 pts)
MBoyle: 2-6 (2 pts)
PhillySoul04: 2-6 (2 pts)
SoulPhan71: 2-6 (2 pts)
RGiorgi (1-7) (1 pt)
Remember that this week, the game values double, and will do so for each round through the ArenaBowl, so make your last seven games of the season all count!
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday evening.
I was a little puzzled this week, so I went ahead and asked my little piece of black plastic for a line of wisdom for its selection…
Colorado Crush (+11) @ San Jose SaberCats, Over/Under 112.5: This is a rematch game of last year’s Division Playoff, which the SaberKitties took 76-67. This year, everything seems to be in equal order. John Dutton is still turning the ball over way too many times in the average game, and the SaberCats simply don’t lose in HP Pavilion.
Look deeper at the similarities between this year and last year. Last season, Colorado underachieved, went 8-8, took on a team with an injured QB, survived a late scare, then came into San Jose and gave the SaberCats everything they can handle. This year, they massively underachieved at 6-10, backdoored their way into the playoffs, caught a really lucky break off the nets at the end of the game, and now find themselves back in San Jose.
The Kitties quietly went about their business for the second straight season, turning it on down the stretch when they really had to, and look primed for another run to the ArenaBowl. Mark Grieb had another ho-hum 100 TD season, and he’ll inevitably continue to grow his legacy as one of the (if not the) greatest QBs in AFL history in the weeks to come.
Your interesting stat of this game: Mark Grieb and John Dutton have 20 career playoff wins combined. The rest of the starting QBs left in the playoffs have 15. No matter which team wins, the winning QB will still like have more wins than every other QB left unless both Raymond Philyaw (5 wins) and Matt D’Orazio (5 wins) both advance.
Just another bone to chew on… Darren Arbet and Mike Dailey have a combined 24 playoff wins. The rest of the coaches in the playoffs left have a combined 21, and Mike Hohensee has 12 of those 21.
As for this particular game, I think the Crush are just too banged up at WR to make this work in San Jose. Barring another super-human effort from Wendell Williams, there just isn’t any way that Dutton can keep it together for long enough to stick with the SaberKitties.
Guru’s Pick: San Jose 66 – Colorado 50 (San Jose and the over)
8-Ball’s Analysis: You will get crushed under exceeding pressure (Colorado and the under)
New York Dragons (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Soul, Over/Under 110: This is a game that I’ve lobbied back and forth in my own mind in the entire week. I know that New York really got murdered in Week 17, but the Dragons had little to play for with a playoff spot wrapped up, while the Soul had everything to play for. I also know that ultimately, the Dragons lost in the first meeting between these teams by three TDs, but if Rohan Davey never stepped foot on the field, New York might’ve won.
Could the Dragons be this year’s Cinderella? I remember saying to myself earlier in the year that this team could be a scary out in the playoffs if Aaron Garcia stays healthy. He has, and they have been. Ask that team down in Texas that we aren’t permitted to mention any longer. How many more chances does Garcia have at getting that elusive championship under his belt? If his three career playoff wins has anything to say about it, it’ll never happen, though.
Standing in their way will be the Soul, who have to be laughing that their biggest road block to get to New Orleans was ousted by an 8-8 team. Then again, Georgia had to be thinking the same thing last year…
There’s no stopping this offense, though. Matt D’Orazio has playoff experience under his belt, knows what it takes to win a championship, and is a proven winner. Chris Jackson should really torch this secondary, and every secondary waiting in their path to the city of Philadelphia’s first championship since approximately the invention of the wheel.
Yet that thought sticks in the back of my mind that New York will be able to compete. I’m going to stick with that thought, but nothing would really shock me in this one.
Guru’s Pick: Philadelphia 62 – New York 60 (New York and the over)
8-Ball’s Analysis: You will buck the trends that have last over long periods of time (Philadelphia and the over)
Grand Rapids Rampage (+9.5) @ Chicago Rush, Over/Under 113: If there’s a team left in the playoffs that’s playing on house money, it’s the Grand Rapids Rampage. For a game in which they only scored 48 points, they didn’t get totally stopped on any possession, and came up with the goalline stand of their lives against the Rattlers on Monday night. Meanwhile, I still can’t help but wonder what’s been in the water in Chicago lately, as the Rush still really haven’t played an impressive game in almost two months.
Now’s the time, Rampage fans (all fourteen of you). You’ve turned the corner. If there were such an award, Steve Thonn would have American Conference Coach of the Year wrapped up and James MacPherson would be the conference’s Most Valuable Player.
You’re on warning, Chicago. This isn’t your average 6-10 team that you’re playing. This is a squad with nothing to lose. The Rampage have a viable offense that can score 70 points, a defense that has taken major strides in recent weeks, and dang near pulled off the upset in the Windy City in the middle of the season.
You’ve been warned. You’ve all been warned.
Guru’s Pick: Mega-upset special, Grand Rapids 59 – Chicago 50 (Grand Rapids and the under)
8-Ball’s Analysis: Be quick to rush to conclusions (Chicago and the over)
Cleveland Gladiators (+7.5) @ Georgia Force Over/Under 114: Another game I’ve gone back and forth over several times in my head…
Cleveland played their butts off against a game Orlando squad last week, and despite the best effort the Predators really could have been expected to give, the Glads proved triumphant and won the franchise’s 2nd ever playoff game and the first in 10 years. To put that in perspective, the last time the Las Vegas/New Jersey/Cleveland franchise won a playoff game, Raymond Philyaw was just out of college, Otis Amey was still in high school, and I had just had my Bar Mitzvah three months earlier.
The Force captured another Southern Division championship in large part due to the collapse of both New Orleans and Orlando, but rightfully stand as the only team left from their division. Georgia’s another team that has caught fire at the right time, but their championship window of opportunity may have been slammed shut last year by the Columbus Destroyers.
I’m not totally sold that the Force are for real. I am sold, however, that Raymond Philyaw is a winner and can lead Cleveland all the way to the ArenaBowl. This should be a tremendous game, and could be one of the best games of the season. I very much so expect this one to be close from the get go, but in the end, I’m going to go with the upset. Take any points you can get in this one, as it should be a doozy.
Guru’s Pick: Cleveland 61 – Georgia 60 (Cleveland and the over)
8-Ball’s Analysis: Your intelligence will be mocked today (Georgia and the under)
Psh… stupid 8-Ball… No random piece of plastic that picked COLUMBUS to win the ArenaBowl has the right to mock me!
Best of luck in the Conference Semifinals!
Make Your Picks
Watch for the thread in the ArenaFan message boards for your chance to Beat the Guru!
Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
