Beat the Guru: AFL Week 16
Adam Markowitz
Thursday June 12, 2008
So now that we’re even again, I’m going to propose that we continue this competition in the postseason, except that we pick BOTH sides and totals in these games. For all of those in Beat the Guru world, we’ll count the 1st round of the playoffs worth 1 points apiece, the 2nd round of the playoffs worth 2 points apiece, the Conference Finals 4 points apiece, and 8 points for both side and total of the ArenaBowl, whether that’s okay with the “Arena Guru” or not.
I went 2-6 and was beaten by (almost) everyone again this week, which isn’t really a surprise when you post that number. I lost the Kansas City, Columbus, and Chicago games by a combined 93 points. Really impressive effort.
I’ll just run off the list of names and how everyone did since you all at least tied my lousy effort…
AFLJunkie (6-2), OrlMemnoch (5-3), Es46ne10 (4-4), InsideSix (4-4), PhillySoul04 (4-4), Chrisncory (4-4) (and the SaberCats still have no chance of winning the ArenaBowl… there, I said it again), the lousy 8-ball (4-4), Gafan98 (3-5), Rush43 (3-5), and EKUVolley (2-6).
I owe EKUVolley an apology for not listing his games last week. He went 5-3 in Week 14 and was amongst the millions of others in Beat the Guru world that beat the snot out of me.
Bah, enough of this. I’m sort of going through the motions this week just like the Predators, and I must admit that I don’t have a lot of strong feelings about this week’s card.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday evening.
New Orleans VooDoo (+3.5) @ Orlando Predators: I think I’ve spoken enough about the Preds this week… but there’s good news yet for Shane Stafford! He could break the records for the most passing yards in a season in team history with 341 yards (4,284), most total offense in a season in team history with 335 combined rushing and passing yards (4,314), highest completion percentage in a season in team history (the record is 67.8% and Stafford sits at 67.1%), and can extend the team record for most touchdown passes in a season with 77 and counting. This game is do-or-die for both teams, and I’d at least like to think that the Preds will figure out some way to get this done and hopefully put them in the playoffs, but I’m making this pick with my heart and not my head. Orlando’s still a train wreck right now, but the VooDoo can’t win a road game if their life depended on it (which now, it does!).
Guru’s Pick: Preds by 6
8-Ball’s Pick: Predators
Cleveland Gladiators (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Soul: This is another game where I have very little clue. The season really is on the line for the Gladiators, and they’re coming off a very impressive win against Chicago. You’d like to think that the Soul are in a let down position after winning in Dallas, but this game is also revenge for their first loss of the season. Really tough spot, but I’ll take the points and hope that it’s enough.
Guru’s Pick: Soul by just 8
8-Ball’s Pick: Gladiators
Grand Rapids Rampage (-4.5) @ Columbus Destroyers: Get ready for the first meaningful playing time for Ohio State’s own Justin Zwick! Hopefully his debut goes a little bit better than the Quincy Carter debut did… Last week I went with the logic that the Destroyers have played well at home, and they got blown to bits by Georgia. Grand Rapids is awful on the road, but at least they have something to play for, while it sure looks like Columbus has packed it in for 2008.
Guru’s Pick: Rampage by 10
8-Ball’s Pick: Rampage
Chicago Rush (+2.5) @ Georgia Force: This is inevitably the best game of the week. The red hot Force can lock up the Mitsubishi Motors Southern Division (side note: since when does the Southern Division have a sponsor???) with a W on Saturday, but the slumping Rush can clinch the #1 seed in the American Conference with a win or a San Jose loss. Someone wake up the Rush, who suddenly now look very questionable for basically the last month. I think this game is coming down to the wire, and having those 2.5 points might come in handy. Part of me thinks that the Rush are pulling this out and making the Force sweat a little harder about that division title next week in San Jose, and I’ll go with that.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, Rush by 1
8-Ball’s Pick: Rush
New York Dragons (+7.5) @ Dallas Desperados: Finally, a game I have a decent feeling on. The Dragons are in a bad spot right now with the schedule and would really like to see Orlando and Tampa Bay lose just to lock down a playoff birth. Their victory over New Orleans last week puts them in the safety zone for the time being, but these last two games against Dallas and Philadelphia are brutal. I expect to see the Dragons doing more scoreboard watching than winning games, and Dallas knows that they need to get something going again towards the playoffs.
Guru’s Pick: Desperados by 16
8-Ball’s Pick: Dragons
Tampa Bay Storm (+6) @ San Jose SaberCats: My biggest fear in this game is that someone gets the memo to the SaberCats that the Rush have beaten the Force, thus making San Jose’s game relatively meaningless against the Storm. I really believe that the SaberCats are much better than a Tampa Bay team who has caught fire at the right time, but it could be too little, too late. This is a tall task for the Storm, who haven’t had much of a history playing in San Jose, regardless of the fact that this game is basically for Tampa Bay’s season.
Guru’s Pick: SaberCats by a dozen
8-Ball’s Pick: Storm
Kansas City (+4.5) @ Los Angeles Avengers: CARTER!!!!! KELLER!!!!! IT’S A PLAYOFF BATTLE FOR THE AMERICAN CONFERENCE.
Please spare me.
Guru’s Pick: LA by 7 because I have to pick somebody
8-Ball’s Pick: Brigade
Colorado Crush (+6.5) @ Arizona Rattlers: Mmm… Free hand grenade at the ArenaBowl…
Guru’s Pick: Rattlers by 14
8-Ball’s Pick: Rattlers
Beat the Guru’s Top 10 (must have 35 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 73-42 (63.5%)
AFLGuru: 67-52 (56.3%)
Arena Guru: 67-52 (56.3%)
Es46ne10: 65-53 (55.1%)
InsideSix: 60-50 (54.5%)
EKUVolley: 53-49 (52.0%)
MBoyle: 36-36 (50.0%)
PhillySoul04: 35-36 (49.3%)
Rush43: 52-58 (47.3%)
Chrisncory: 22-30 (42.3%)
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
