Beat the Guru: ArenaBowl XXII
Adam Markowitz
Wednesday July 23, 2008
But before we get on to the final game of the season, let’s look back at the Conference Finals, which pretty much ate us all for lunch. I went 1-3 in the action, but did correctly predict San Jose and Philadelphia playing each other in New Orleans. That’s better than our good friend from ArenaFootballOnline, as Scott the “Arena Guru” went 0-2 ATS, clinching up the 2008 Guru Belt for yours truly. It was a good run, buddy, but to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. Be sure to check out his ArenaBowl analysis over at AFO.
More props need to go out to AFO, as their editor Rich Giorgi came up with the final score prediction of the week in the Cleveland/Philadelphia game: Cleveland 117 – Philadelphia 6. Missed it by THAT much!
The rest of us playing over at ArenaFan were pretty much worthless as well. The Cleveland/Philadelphia game destroyed us all, as only EKUVolley correctly predicted that Philadelphia would cover the 6.5 point spread, while only Chrisncory and Rush43 had the under 115.5. We were marginally more successful in the San Jose/Grand Rapids game.
Beat the Guru’s Playoff Standings
Chrisncory: 26 pts (12-8)
Rush43: 24 pts (12-8)
EKUVolley: 23 pts (11-9)
AFLGuru: 22 pts (12-8)
Es46ne10: 17 pts (9-11)
RGiorgi: 15 pts (7-13)
PhillySoul04: 14 pts (7-13)
SJ’Cats DHF: 13 pts (7-9)
AFLJunkie: 12 pts (7-9)
8-Ball: 11 pts (5-15)
MBoyle: 2 pts (2-6)
SoulPhan71: 2 pts (2-6)
Remember, for the last game of the season, both side and total are worth eight points apiece, so make your final selections wisely! Final postseason standings will be posted next week on the ArenaFan message boards.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Monday evening.
San Jose SaberCats (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Soul, Over/Under 119.5: Okay boys and girls, let’s go over some key betting trends for this game that you might not have thought about before.
-Both Philadelphia and San Jose went 9-8-1 ATS this year.
-San Jose has gone 9-7-2 on overs this year.
-Philadelphia has gone 7-10-1 on overs this year.
-San Jose is 3-0 SU against Philadelphia all-time (2-1 ATS).
-In three previous meetings, the over is 0-2-1.
-San Jose is 3-0 both SU and ATS in ArenaBowls.
-San Jose is 1-2 on overs in ArenaBowls.
-San Jose is 12-10 ATS all-time in playoff games (15-7 SU)
-San Jose is 11-9 on overs in playoff games, but is 6-1 on overs the past 3 years.
-Philadelphia is 3-3 ATS all-time in playoff games (4-2 SU)
-Philadelphia is 0-6 on overs in playoff games.
Now let’s get to the ridiculous trends of note… (Like I said, this is your gambling HQ for ArenaBowl XXII!)
-San Jose is 16-5 ATS and 10-12 SU when they are underdogs of 3-9.5 points.
-San Jose is 37-14-2 ATS and 42-11 SU in games where the total is at least 110.
-San Jose is 25-3-2 ATS and 27-2 SU in games where the total is at least 110 the past 3 seasons.
-San Jose is 10-2 on overs after a bye week
-Philadelphia is 5-12 ATS and 8-9 SU when the total is at least 110
-Philadelphia is 4-13 on overs when the total is at least 110
-Philadelphia is 1-8 on overs against Western Division teams
-Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS and 4-5 SU against Western Division teams
The most ridiculous stat of this game has to be in ArenaBowl experience. If you take the entire 20-man roster from the National Conference Championship game for the Soul and add their ArenaBowl appearances together, you only have two. That’s right. Two games. Matt D’Orazio beat the Orlando Predators in ArenaBowl XX, while Chris Jackson was on the Force in ArenaBowl XIX.
Let’s just go through the list of SaberCats and how much ArenaBowl experience they have.
Omarr Smith (4)
Clevan Thomas (3)
Dan Loney (3)
George Williams (3)
Mark Grieb (2)
Brian Johnson (2)
Rodney Wright (1)
Julius Gant (1)
Marquis Floyd (1)
Steve Watson (1)
Ron Jones (1)
Alan Harper (1)
AJ Haglund (1)
That’s a 24-2 advantage for the SaberCats, and that’s not even including James Roe, who has three appearances on his own. Oh, in case you were wondering, these SaberCats are a combined 24-0 in the ArenaBowl.
I’m not totally convinced that this is the day that will further cement the San Jose dynasty, though. The Soul are the chosen team of the Arena Football League right now, and with Quarterback of the Year Matt D’Orazio, Offensive Player of the Year Chris Jackson, and First Team All-Arena linemen Phil Bogle and Martin Bibla on the field at the same time, the unit will be difficult to stop.
It will be a complete travesty if the Soul go on to win the ArenaBowl after the Larry Brackins debacle at the end of their game against New York. Let’s face it. Philadelphia has no business being in this game. But here they are, 60 minutes from the city’s first championship since cavemen ruled the earth, and with a good chunk of the same officiating crew from that New York game reffing in New Orleans, everything better be up to snuff with the zebras (and the replay system if necessary), or there will be a heck of a lot of questioning going on come Monday.
I just can’t pick against a team with this much going for it right now, no matter how much experience the SaberCats have coming in. I love this San Jose team and truly believe that they are the best team in the AFL, but Philadelphia has more individual talent, and Grieb’s tendency to throw interceptions might prove to be too much for the Cats to overcome. There’s no way I’m laying 3.5 points in a championship game, though.
Here are a couple more great contradictory stats for the ArenaBowl that will inevitably have absolutely no bearing on the game.
-San Jose is 1-0 in ArenaBowls I’ve attended that they’re playing in.
-The team I’m covering in the ArenaBowl is 1-0.
For Bret Munsey and the gang, the hope is that I’m going 2-0.
Guru’s Pick: Philadelphia 58 – San Jose 56 (San Jose and the under)
8-Ball’s Pick: Philadelphia 65 – San Jose 55 (Philadelphia and the over)
Make Your Picks
See how well you can do against the Guru one final time in 2008. Make your picks here. Winners will be recognized weekly.
Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
