First to Five

Brian Beaudry
Thursday June 9, 2011

Touchdowns are worth six points. Throw in an extra point and you have seven. So why is five the most important number in Arena Football? If your team can put up 5 points per possession on offense, they're a virtual lock to win. Through week 13, teams that scored at least 5 points per have gone 73-14, for a winning percentage of 83.9.

Of those 14 teams to lose, 11 lost because their opponents scored more per drive than they did. Two of them are false positives - both Chicago and Spokane picked up a defensive and a special teams touchdown in respective losses to Kansas City. If those scores are removed from their offensive total, as they are in my offensive numbers mentioned in the rest of the column, then the only team to lose a game despite scoring more than 5 points per offensive possession is the Iowa Barnstormers. Iowa put up 6 points per drive against Tulsa and managed to lose, thanks to a last second field goal on Tulsa's extra possession (the Talons had 11 possessions to Iowa's 10).

Now that we know why scoring five points per possession is critical, we can see why the Shock made the move to get Erik Meyer and Raymond McNeil from the Blaze at the trade deadline.

Much like the rest of the league, when the Shock score more than five points per possession, they win. Each of their four wins comes at an AFL-winner average 5.5 points or more. Their losses? A slightly above-league loser average 4.10 (losing team average, AFL-wide: 4.03).

After two weeks of horrific offense under last-minute replacement quarterback Casey Hansen, it was clear that the team had no chance of winning until either Bill Stull or Kyle Rowley returned from injury. Against two of the bottom five defenses in the AFL in opponent-adjusted points per drive in Kansas City and Tampa Bay, the Shock managed just 3.37 points per drive.

Only once this season has a team won despite scoring so few points per drive in a game - Orlando beat an awful Milwaukee team despite scoring just 3.18 points per drive (of course, Milwaukee couldn't so much as manage three points per drive). The Shock, with their playoff lives precariously dangling over a ledge while competition in the National Conference race gives games away, can't afford to take on any more losses.

Meyer, in his short stints in games last year as a Shock backup to Kyle Rowley, is more than just a backup. He's pushed not only Rowley but Blaze quarterback Tommy Grady for the top spot in their respective teams' depth charts. It's hardly his fault that his mere presence on the bench seems to provide the starting quarterback with a superhuman ability to stay healthy. The former Walter Payton Award Winner and two-time All American has plenty of football chops, having set the NFL Europa completion percentage record and having signed with several NFL teams.

McNeil, too, is a beast on the offensive line. He led a line that led the league in fewest sacks surrendered last year, and one that's near the top of the league this year. The two should be of great comfort to Shock fans who saw the line and the indecisive Hansen give up nine sacks in the previous two weeks.

In order to get to five wins, the new offense must get to five points per possession.

Notes: The Shock are just 1-4 on Fridays this season. However, the team is 1-1 at home in those games, with a win over Kansas City and a loss to the Storm. No matter who people decide is the "real" defending champion, Shock head coach Rob Keefe has a title ring from that squad, as he won as a DB with the Soul in 2008 and as the Shock head coach in 2010. The Shock are also just 1-4 coming back from a week off since entering the AFL, including season-opening losses in 2010 and 2011.