The Empire Streak: Behind the Numbers
Ryan McCarthy
Wednesday May 29, 2019
Albany playing efficiently on both sides of the ball on their way to perfect start
Before the season started, I expressed some thoughts on the AFL Tonight podcast during a round-table discussion about how a three-game road trip would define the Albany Empire’s season. Privately, I knew that the Empire were in for a tough go: this is particularly true against rival Philadelphia and two expansion teams in Atlantic City and Columbus looking to make a name for themselves.
The Empire wound up taking all three games en route to a 5-0 start, which ties their longest winning streak from last season when they won five in a row between Week 3 and Week 7. They do have history on their side as these teams started their respective seasons 5-0 and went on to win the ArenaBowl:
1996 Tampa Bay Storm;
2000 Orlando Predators;
2001 Grand Rapids Rampage;
2002 San Jose SaberCats;
2008 Philadelphia Soul;
2014 Arizona Rattlers;
2015 San Jose SaberCats;
2017 Philadelphia Soul.
It’s not easy to start 5-0, but they way the Empire have played on both sides of the ball that has been very impressive. I’ve done a little nerding out and I’ve provided some statistical data that shows how they got here.
Offensively, QB Tommy Grady has been ridiculously efficient: his QBR is 129.6. He has a 9-to-1 TD to Interception ratio (28 TD, 3 INT) and throws one touchdown pass for every five attempts. One reason for his blistering start is a full training camp to get accustomed to his many weapons. That includes WR Malachi Jones; even after a rather full nine months in the NFL and AAF, he has picked up where he left off from the pace that earned him Receiver of the Year award honors last season. Jones has 45 receptions for 635 yards and 11 touchdowns, just about one touchdown for every 4.5 receptions. He has plenty of help this season with DJ Stephens (21 receptions, 4 TDs) and Quentin Sims (20 receptions, 8 TDs). The Empire has also been very effective in the Red Zone, going 16-for-20 and tying Philadelphia for first in the league.
Defensively, the Empire have been at their best on third down, fourth down, and especially in the Red Zone. On third down, opposing offenses have only converted 44% of attempts against the Empire (12-for-27). Only Baltimore (6-for-26, 23%) and Atlantic City (13-for-32, 41%) have better percentages. They are currently tied for fourth with Philadelphia in fourth down conversion rate with 33% (3-for-9), which isn’t too far behind Columbus, who has held their opponents to a 25% conversion rate (3-for-12). Opponents have reached the Red Zone 27 times, but have only converted against the Empire only 15 times for a conversion rate of 56%. The next best team on Red Zone defense is Philadelphia, which is 20 percentage points behind Albany (16-for-21, 76%). The Empire defense leads the league in turnovers with 11 by forcing 6 interceptions and 5 fumble recoveries in their first five games which has been converted into 54 points. Jack LB Terrence Moore and DB Arkeith Brown each have two picks and DL Joe Sykes and DB Juwan Offray have returned fumble recoveries for touchdowns.
Seven games remain in the regular season and curiosity strikes as to whether or not the Empire can continue this pace. But the Empire have been a fun team to watch this season – and a fun team to follow statistically.
Ryan McCarthy has been an on-and-off Internet columnist and blogger since 1997. He has been an avid follower of Arena Football since 1990 when the Albany Firebirds were established. Ryan currently attends Regent University, where he is pursuing his Bachelors degree in Communications with a Journalism concentration. He anticipates graduating toward the end of 2019. You can follow Ryan on Twitter at @rwhoisryanmcc