Blaze-SaberCats: Best in West and possibly in the AFL on the line
Andy Lopusnak
Thursday May 10, 2012
As the AFL reaches the midway point this weekend in it's 20-week schedule, the West Division is the only division with three teams with winning records. Those three teams (San Jose, Utah and Arizona) are among the top four in scoring and the top three in passing offense. Friday night, the West's top two teams meet in Silicon Valley for supremacy in the National Conference.
San Jose and Utah, both 6-2, met in Week Three with the home-standing Blaze narrowly hanging on to beat the SaberCats 60-59 thanks to a missed last-second field goal by San Jose's Jacob Harfman, who was promptly released following the game. Since that last meeting, each team has lost once more and both are currently tied with Chicago and Philadelphia for the best record in the league (at 6-2).
The AFL is a quarterback-driven league and right now two of the best are unquestionably playing in this game.
Since the AFL's reboot in 2010, no quarterback has passed for as many ten or more touchdown games as Utah's Tommy Grady (six). Last week, he tied the AFL single-game mark with eleven TD strikes in the Blaze's 84-63 win over Spokane. Last year, he was on pace to shatter league marks in all passing categories before suffering a season-ending injury. Grady still tossed for 107 scores and 4,365 yards despite missing the last three and a half games.
San Jose's Mark Grieb, a future first-ballot AFL Hall of Famer, has thrown for more yards since the beginning of the 2011 season than any player. His 388 yards this past weekend in the SaberCats' 77-70 win over Arizona was the second most in the league this season to his 432 in the season opener (also against Arizona).
This is the fourth time that Grady and Grieb have met all-time. After the SaberCats destroyed the Blaze in the first meeting last year, 75-55, Utah has pulled off last-minute wins the last two times, including the one-point victory on March 24 when San Jose missed a 38-yard field goal as time expired.
In these three games, the two quarterbacks have completed 67.4% of their passes, combined for 42 touchdowns, four 300-yard passing games with a passer rating of 121.2. Grady's posted at least 319 passing yards in each contest. Grieb's three combined interceptions in the past two games led to 14 Blaze points - San Jose lost those two games by a combined nine points.
Through nine weeks, Grady and Grieb are among the AFL's leaders in every passing category. Grady's touchdown numbers are truly astronomical compared to the next closest player - 12 more total touchdowns than Philly's Dan Raudabaugh. Grady's current clip would put him at 151 total touchdowns with 140 of them coming through the air. The league record for passing scores is 117. Grieb leads the league in passing yards with 2,517 (61 more than Grady, but on 26 fewer attempts). If that number continued, Grieb would shatter his AFL single-season mark of 300 yards.
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GRADY
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CATEGORY
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GRIEB
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2nd
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Pass Yards
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1st
|
|
2nd
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Total Offensive Yards
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1st
|
|
1st
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Pass Touchdowns
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4th
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|
1st
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Total Offensive TDs
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4th
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|
1st
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Pass Attempts
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2nd
|
|
1st
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Completions
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2nd
|
|
8th
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Passer Rating
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6th
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|
Not in Top 10
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Yards per Completion
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7th
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|
Not in Top 10
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Yards per Attempt
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5th
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|
6th
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Completion Pct
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4th
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|
T-2nd most
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Interceptions Thrown
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T-7th most
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Grieb continues to work his way up the league's all-time career records. In addition to having the best completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating of any player with at least 2,000 pass attempts, he moved into second place all-time in career passing yards last week despite being fourth and fifth respectively in completions and attempts. During the season opener, he moved into third place in passing TDs and should move into second place early in 2013 if he decides to play next season.
In little more than two years in the AFL, Grady already ranks 23rd all-time in passing touchdowns and 30th in passing yards. With his current pace, Grady would end this year at 18th all-time in career TDs and 22nd in yards.
Quarterback play is the hallmark of the AFL, but the intangibles end up deciding games like this when you have two great gunslingers dueling it out.
These two teams are very similar in most categories thus far (see chart below). However, there are some big differences in some crucial categories. Utah is the most penalized team in the league and is the worst when its defense is on fourth down. In those categories, San Jose is the third least penalized team and has the league's best fourth-down defense. In addition, the Blaze have given up more total touchdowns than any team in the league, while San Jose has scored the second most. This isn't anything new to the Blaze. Last year, Utah allowed the most points (total and per game) in league history, while its offense scored the third most points and TDs in 2011.
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UTAH
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CATEGORY
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SAN JOSE
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3rd
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Points Scored
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2nd
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|
3rd
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Pass Offense
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1st
|
|
4th
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Total Offense
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1st
|
|
T-1st
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First Downs
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T-1st
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|
11th
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3rd Down Conv %
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3rd
|
|
3rd
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4th Down Conv %
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5th
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|
6th
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Times Sacked
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7th
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WORST
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Least Penalized
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3rd
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|
WORST
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Opp 4th Down Conv %
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BEST
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|
2nd
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Sacks by (defense)
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1st
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The last two times these two teams met, Utah squeaked out last minute wins thanks largely to converting turnovers into points and a missed field goal. If the game comes down to another field goal, it might not happen at all. San Jose has missed all three FG attempts this year and Utah hasn't even attempted one (the Blaze has only attempted three FGs with one make in the 26 games since Matt Sauk became offensive coordinator). Not surprising, Utah and San Jose have went for it on fourth down more than most teams and have had a lot of success doing so. The Blaze has converted a league-high 19 on fourth down (next closest team has 12). San Jose has converted eleven. However, as mentioned above, the SaberCats' defense is the best in the league on fourth down (allowing just 26.3%) and the Blaze's defense is dead last (68.2%).
Defensively, the SaberCats statistically are better than the Blaze in most categories aside from rushing. In that Utah is tops in the league against the rush. San Jose's offense is tied for the most rushing touchdowns (20) and ranks seven in yards per game. When the SaberCats get inside their opponent's ten-yard line, the team relies as much as on the run as it does Grieb's arm. San Jose has the evenly distributed red-zone offense with 18 rushing scores and 18 passing scores.
Utah has allowed a league-low eight yards per game and six total touchdowns. Three of those ground scores as well as the second most yards allowed came against San Jose in Week Three. However, the SaberCats will be without fullback Tommy Taggart, who was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday. San Jose traded to get FB Johnie Kirton from Arizona, who is expected to play this week. Kirton finished third in the league in rushing yards last season with Chicago and posted 46 yards and three scores on the ground in a win over Utah last season.
Utah has won a league-best four straight games since losing at home to New Orleans on March 31. San Jose has posted the second-best active winning streak (three) since losing at Philadelphia on April 14. The SaberCats have won their past five home games dating back to last season by an average of 14 points and scored at least 70 in three of those contests. Utah hasn't won in San Jose since the team's inaugural game in 2006 when the Blaze beat the SaberCats 48-35 thanks to a 24-point run in the first half following three San Jose turnovers. If the SaberCats win, it will match the team's win total for all of 2011.
Kickoff for the game is at 7:30 PM Pacific Time at the HP Pavilion in San Jose. The SaberCats are offering a family four-pack that includes: four hot dogs, four sodas, four bags of chips and four tickets to the game for just $55. For more information, call 408.673.3400 or log onto theSanJoseSaberCats.com. In addition, the first 5,000 fans will receive a SaberCats baseball hat courtesy of LG.
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
