San Jose blazing through the West
Andy Lopusnak
Saturday May 17, 2008
The San Jose SaberCats can wrap up a playoff berth this weekend with a win over the Utah Blaze and some help (Arizona, Colorado and Kansas City must lose as well). This despite the fact that San Jose would earn just its seventh win while seven teams in the National Conference could have at least seven wins without any possible way to notch a playoff berth.
To earn its ninth straight postseason trip, San Jose first will have to beat Utah for the fifth straight time, which would extend its AFL-record winning streak against division opponents (a win would equate to a full, undefeated season against the Western Division). In each of the last three meetings, the SaberCats have beaten the Blaze by 21 points each time.
Next, the SaberCats will need Dallas to beat Arizona, Cleveland to beat Colorado and Orlando to beat Kansas City. All three of these teams play National Conference teams, which have utterly dominated the American Conference in inter-conference matchups this season (the SaberCats are 0-4 against the National Conference). San Jose has already beaten the Rattlers twice and the Brigade once. The team hosts Colorado next Saturday. Even if these do not occur, the SaberCats should easily cruise into the playoffs with the American Conference being as weak as it is.
This game features the league’s top to passers in the league. Utah QB Joe Germaine and San Jose QB Mark Grieb rank number one or two in almost every single passing category. The last time these two gunslingers met, Germaine had his worst game of the season being held to a season-low 189 yards with three TDs and was sacked twice. Grieb had 312 yards with five touchdowns in the 61-40 win five weeks ago. Utah opened the season 0-9 but has won its last two beating up on lowly Kansas City and struggling Colorado.
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GERMAINE
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CATEGORY
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GRIEB
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||
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297
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2nd
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Pass Attempts
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287
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2nd
|
|
428
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T-1st
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Completions
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428
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T-1st
|
|
69.4
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3rd
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Completion Percentage
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67.1
|
5th
|
|
3,437
|
1st
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Pass Yards
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3,133
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2nd
|
|
70
|
1st
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Pass TDs
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58
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T-3rd
|
|
9
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6th
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Interceptions
|
14
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21st
|
|
124.2
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2nd
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Passer Rating
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108.7
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15th
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Again, as mentioned in the previous preview, San Jose is 6-0 against teams with losing records and 0-5 against teams with winning records (all five are the top five teams in the league based on record). In wins, the SaberCats have a +17 turnover differential, but are -10 in their five losses. San Jose’s offense is the best in the red zone in the league, scoring touchdowns 91.4% of the time and is among the top six in points scored, passing yards, total yardage and least times sacks. The defense leads the league in sacks and the special teams unit has the best kickoff return average in the AFL. However, the team’s biggest obstacle has been its inability to convert on third and fourth down. Last season, San Jose had the best team on both downs and won the ArenaBowl. This season, the SaberCats have the fourth worst third down team and second worst on fourth down.
Normally, this would spell disastrous for a team, but the SaberCats have hands down the best kicker in the AFL in second-year man A.J. Haglund. On the year, Haglund leads the AFL in points scored by a kicker, field goals attempted, field goals made and field goal percentage. There’s little doubt that Haglund will be named AFL Kicker of the Year and First Team All-Arena. He has kept the SaberCats in games this season when the offense faltered thanks to his powerful leg. On a side note, Haglund can become the SaberCats’ all-time leader in points scored by a kicker with two points tonight against Utah.
The SaberCats’ first eleven games featured the hardest strength of schedule, the longest miles traveled and the most games played against teams with winning records among any team in the AFL. But the remaining five games will all be in the state of California (four home contests and one short trip to Los Angeles). All five games are against teams with non-winning records (only Georgia at 5-5 has a non-losing record).
Through eleven games, the SaberCats stand at 6-5 and have won their final five games of the season each of the last two years. Since 2000, San Jose is 28-8 after its eleventh game of the season, including four seasons when it has won their remainder of its games after game eleven.
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YEAR
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THROUGH 11 GAMES
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FINAL RECORD
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PLAYOFFS
|
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2008
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6-5
|
???
|
???
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|
2007
|
8-3
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13-3
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ArenaBowl champs
|
|
2006
|
5-6
|
10-6
|
Lost in American Conference finals
|
|
2005
|
7-4
|
9-7
|
Lost in quarterfinals
|
|
2004
|
9-2
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11-5
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ArenaBowl champs
|
|
2003
|
7-4
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12-4
|
Lost in semifinals
|
|
2002
|
11-0
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13-1
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ArenaBowl champs
|
|
2001
|
8-3
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10-4
|
Lost in semifinals
|
|
2000
|
9-2
|
12-2
|
Lost in semifinals
|
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
