SaberCats look to claw through Jungle
Andy Lopusnak
Saturday May 3, 2008
The San Jose SaberCats stand alone atop the Western Division without beating a team with a winning a record. San Jose’s five wins have come against teams with a combined 11-31 record (26.2 win percentage), while its four losses have been against teams with a combined 30-5 record (85.7 win percentage).
A win tonight against the 6-3 Orlando Predators would give the SaberCats a lot more than just their first win against a team with a winning record. It would be the team’s first win over a National Conference opponent (0-3 in three previous games), the team’s first three-game winning streak and likely lock up a playoff berth with how bad the American Conference is playing at this point.
With the emergence of New Orleans and the great starts of Dallas and Philadelphia, the Predators are the forgotten power in the National Conference. Orlando started the season 0-2, but won six straight before losing last week against Tampa Bay. The Predators are 3-0 against the American Conference. Only Philadelphia (4-0) has a better record against the American Conference. Seven of the nine games for the Predators this season have been decided in the final minute of play. Orlando is 5-2 in those games.
SERIES HISTORY
The SaberCats hold a 6-2 edge in eight previous contests and have won the last four matchups. Aside from last season’s 59-52 SaberCats win, the other seven games were decided by at least two scores. In the regular season, San Jose is 5-1 against Orlando and is 2-0 at the Jungle. The Predators held the SaberCats to under 40 points in both Orlando wins in the series.
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YEAR
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FINAL SCORE
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2007
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SAN JOSE 59, Orlando 52
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2005
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San Jose 57, ORLANDO 38
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2002
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SAN JOSE 52, Orlando 40 (semifinals)
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2002
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San Jose 77, ORLANDO 45
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2001
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Orlando 59, SAN JOSE 35
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1996
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SAN JOSE 42, Orlando 25
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1995
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Orlando 55, SAN JOSE 37 (quarterfinals)
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1995
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SAN JOSE 54, Orlando 27
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ORLANDO PLAYERS TO WATCH
QB Shane Stafford
Stafford has completed 69.2% of his passes for 2,509 yards with 48 TDs and 11 interceptions. He also has two rushing touchdowns.
WR/KR T.T. Toliver
Toliver is the league’s leader in all-purpose yards (2,111), receiving yards (1,041) and kickoff return yards (1,015). If he continues that trend, he will be the first player to achieve this triple crown of yardage since Hunkie Cooper did it in 1993 (George LaFrance also did it in 1989). Also he would be the first player to receiver 4,000 all-purpose yards (as well as the second to reach 2,000 yards receiving and third to do so on kickoff returns). Additionally, Toliver ranks in the league: third in touchdowns scored (24) and points scored (144); as well as fifth in receiving touchdowns (21) and receptions (73).
FB/LB Marlon Moye-Moore
Moye-Moore leads all FB/LBs in the league in tackles (44.0) and should easily shatter the league mark set by Chris Avery (59.5) in 2005 with Grand Rapids. Moye-Moore also has 4.0 tackles for loss (including one sack) and five pass breakups on defense. Offensively, he has eleven rushing touchdowns and scored a two-point conversion in overtime against Chicago that gave the Predators an exciting win over the American Conference’s best team (based on win-loss record).
DL Rob Schroeder
In seven games, the 2007 All-Rookie Teamer has 3.5 sacks, 7.0 tackles for loss, three blocked kicks and a safety. Orlando traded AFL all-time tackler Damon Mason to Utah for Scroeder in Week Four.
DB Kenny McEntyre
The league’s all-time leader in interceptions already has three picks this season. He also has 34.5 stops, a forced fumble and five pass breakups.
SAN JOSE’S KEYS TO VICTORY
PUT PRESSURE ON STAFFORD
The SaberCats defensive line is the best in the league in terms of sacks (16), while Orlando has given up the fifth-most sacks in the league (12). Five of Stafford’s eleven interceptions have been returned for touchdowns this season. If the SaberCats get to him like they did last week against Avengers QB Tim Hicks it will be a long, long night for Stafford.
CONVERT CONVERSIONS
Orlando sports the fourth-most offensive unit in third-down conversions (53.7%), while the SaberCats are fourth to last (42.9%). The Predators are also fourth best in fourth-down conversions (63.6%), while the SaberCats are third to last (45.5%). San Jose has attempted the third most fourth-down conversions (20), while Orlando has attempted nearly half that (eleven). The SaberCats do not have a “quality win” on their resume this season yet and must convert their conversions and stop the Predators from converting theirs. Orlando’s defense allows the fourth most in third down conversions, while the SaberCats’ unit ranks as the fourth best.
DON’T PLAY SLOPPY
The Predators are the most penalized team in the league (80) and “forced” their opponents into the second most penalties in the AFL. San Jose enters with the fourth-least penalties per game and their opponents are the second-least penalized in the league. Orlando is use to playing with a lot of penalties and winning, San Jose isn’t.
FORCE THE ISSUE
San Jose has forced the third most turnovers in the league (25), which is nearly three times as many as Orlando (nine, which is second least in the AFL). Additionally, the Predators cough up the ball the fourth-most in the league and have a -12 turnover differential, while the SaberCats are fifth best with a +9 differential.
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
