Pathetic Performance Likely Sends Preds on the Road
Adam Markowitz
Friday June 22, 2007
Fellow ArenaFan writer, Jason Lucas and I have joked that there were several instances when I was set to write articles absolutely ripping Jay Gruden’s coaching decisions to shreds, only to see other people and other teams do other noteworthy things in the same weekend to take my article elsewhere. Translation: I have some pent up frustration that I need to get out.
I’ll admit that I started watching Thursday night’s game between the Orlando Predators and Philadelphia Soul fearing gloom and doom. I sat there before the game started wondering, “If only Columbus had held onto that lead against Philadelphia…” and, “If only Grand Rapids could hold onto the football against Tampa…” and, “If only we could have beaten just one more team…”
And then it all hit me. We didn’t win those games. Even if the Predators get a gift from the Austin Wranglers beating the Tampa Bay Storm on Saturday night and clinch a home playoff game that way, they don’t deserve it. The Preds have been pitiful down the stretch.
Don’t blame injuries either. Yes, missing OL Jim Sodano for the mass majority of the season hurt the offensive line. Yes, missing WR Ron Johnson for the regular season finale was apparent, especially watching WR Lavon Thomas fumble on Johnson’s patented slant route in the 3rd quarter on Thursday. Yes, missing ADT Defensive Player of the Year candidate, DL Greg White hurt for those three games. I could go on and on.
But the truth is, the Predators were as healthy as they had been all season going into the game with the Utah Blaze. The beat up Predators had clawed to 7-4 at that point. Everyone figured that the team was going to easily lock up a first round home game with perhaps a 10-6, maybe a 9-7 record if everything possible went wrong. The Southern Division title was even in sight, though it was still a ways away. The Preds defense averaged giving up a svelte 42.7 ppg at that point in the season. The offense wasn’t putting up terrific numbers, but some of the best seasons in Preds history were those where the offense didn’t have to score 50 points in a game to win.
Then it happened. Jay Taylor’s extra point was blocked and returned for 2-pts with 1:52 remaining in the 4th against the Blaze. Instead of tying the game at 56-56, the Blaze took a 58-55 lead which the Predators would never recover from. Literally.
Since the Preds were 7-4, they haven’t won a 2nd half to close out games. Fortunately, they didn’t need to against the New York Dragons, but in the 4 losses down the stretch of the season, the team was outscored by 3 against Utah, 7 against San Jose, 2 against New York, 8 against Georgia, and finally, 14 against Philadelphia. By the way, in three of those five games, including against the Soul, the Preds got the ball first to open up the 3rd quarter.
But Orlando’s problem stems deeper than the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Predators biggest problem is mismanagement of timeouts and poor clock management at the end of the first half. Just look at how all of these games panned out for Orlando at the end of the half.
Philadelphia: The Preds get the ball with 27 seconds left in the half, throw a nine-yard pass, then 3 incompletions, giving Philadelphia 11 seconds to take what was a 14-point lead with 0:28 left in the half and making it a tie game at the break.
Georgia: Ron Johnson foolishly scores a TD with 0:52 left in the half when he could’ve fallen down and assured the Preds the final possession of the half. Instead, Georgia was left with plenty of time to score the last TD of the half. The Preds were bailed out by a long Jay Taylor FG as the half expired.
San Jose: The Preds had the ball at the SJ 18 with 1:00 left. They throw 3 incomplete passes and settle for a Jay Taylor FG with 0:40 left. Fortunately, the defense stood tall and only conceded 3 points on the next SaberCats possession, but Orlando should have gone into that half ahead, not tied.
Utah: The Predators had the ball 1st and goal at the Utah 3 with 40 seconds left. Instead of trying to milk some clock, the Preds scored too quickly and left the Blaze 0:31 seconds to work with, plenty of time to give a Danny White coached ball club to march the field and tie the game at the half.
Austin: Facing 4th and 10 from their own 1 yard line, Gruden decided to throw the ball deep. Not only did QB Shane Stafford narrowly avoid taking a safety, but the incomplete pass left Austin 0:19 in the half to stretch the Wrangler lead to 28-17. Again, Taylor came through with an important FG to end the half, but it never should have come to that. If the Preds kicked a FG out of bounds with 0:25 or so left on the clock, Austin should have taken over on their own 20 with 0:20 or so left, not on the Preds 1, and perhaps the defense could have made a stand for at least 3 points instead of 7.
New Orleans: The Preds failed to recover an onside kick with 0:53 left in the half, then Ryan Bowers fumbled the kickoff after a VooDoo score with 0:02 left in the half. In a half that the Preds dominated and should have won by at least 2 scores, they were an Eric Houle missed field goal as time expired in the half away from trailing at the break.
Georgia: Trailing 35-20, the Preds took over with 0:30 left in the half and failed to score a point. Instead of being down 8 with the ball to start the 2nd half, the Preds chased those two scores the rest of the game and never really had a chance again.
New Orleans: With the Preds up 26-14 and in complete control, Stafford threw an INT in the end zone with 0:47 left in the half. Instead of going up 33-14 and receiving the ball to start the 2nd half, the VooDoo scored the final TD of the half to make it 26-21.
Eight games this year. Eight times, Gruden absolutely screwed up the end of the first half management, and it directly cost us the games against New Orleans, Utah, and arguably, San Jose.
I’ve said it before and will say it again. The Predators are a championship quality team when healthy. They just don’t have a championship quality coach anymore. This isn’t the Jay Gruden that led the team to two ArenaBowl championships in 1998 and 2000. This Jay Gruden gives up on games when the team is down more than 1 score inside of 1:00 in the 4th quarter and wastes timeouts early in halves instead of saving them (the root of a lot of these problems the Preds are having at the end of halves).
Chew on this. The Predators haven’t won a game this year when they’ve allowed 55 points or more. They’re the only team in the league that can say that. Even Las Vegas has won a game when they’ve allowed 55 points, and that’s sad. The magic number is 100 for the Preds. If the game total goes under 100 points, the Preds are 6-3. When it goes over 100 points, they’re 2-5.
Why does Gruden insist on throwing for touchdown passes on 4th and short so often, then? I can remember one time that it worked… against San Jose, Javarus Dudley was wide open. I can’t recall another time this year that strategy actually worked. The Predators have to play a short game to win.
All things considered, this Orlando Predators offense came up 2 points short of last year’s team total for points. This offense broke all sorts of team records. The kicking game was as good as it’s ever been. The defense registered their turnovers and sacks like they always do, and held teams to a conference best 47.9 ppg, which will fall only behind Chicago and possibly San Jose for tops in the league. Greg White very well could become the next in a long line of Predators who win ADT Defensive Player of the Year honors.
I understand as a member of the National Conference that this is Georgia’s and Dallas’ world that the Preds are just playing in, but I refuse to believe that their teams are that much more talented than Orlando is. If the Predators are insistent on rebuilding this team for the 2008 season, my suggestion would be to start at the top. Like Gruden’s brother with the Bucs, the buffer window after winning a championship is now expired. 8-8 would be a great record for so many teams in the AFL. For Orlando, this in unacceptable. Barring a miraculous run in the playoffs, Gruden must go.
There’s only one thing left to say in the 2007 season for of the Orlando Predators, and it’s pathetic that we have been dropped to this if we want a first round home playoff game…
…Go Austin.
Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
