Fantasy Look: Week 16 Preview
Patrick Daly
Friday May 13, 2005
At this point in the season it is sometimes difficult to decide which players to start when injuries crop up. For example, prior to last weekend’s games Chicago Rush WR/LB Etu Molden was questionable, while OS Henry Douglas was set to play. However, on Friday night it was Molden who played and scored twice while Douglas didn’t even suit up. In cases like this your best course of action when learning that one of your starters is injured is to take a look at who you have on your bench and decide whether a backup at 100% is better than a starter at 50-75%. While luck will always play a part in fantasy football, you need to give yourself the best possible chance to win.
By this point of the season, it is also time to look at how some of the preseason picks have fared. I’ll provide a more in depth review at the conclusion of the season, but wanted to start with a few observations. The caveat here is that predicting anyone’s performance in most sports is often difficult at best. After all, take a look at preseason college football polls or any Sports Illustrated cover. I don’t believe in jinxes, but the warning of "past performance is not always an indicator of future gains" holds true here.
That said, I have to admit a big miss when it comes to Arizona Rattlers OS Siaha Burley. After a nice 2004 campaign, I expected him to have a decent 2005 season, but felt that learning another new offense would take its toll on his numbers. Instead, he’s remained on a tear this season that puts him only five touchdowns away from tying the single-season touchdown record. That means, no matter where you picked him up in the draft, he’s been probably the best pick this season.
On the flip side, I had San Jose SaberCats OS James Hundon ranked fourth on my list of receivers, mostly based on his potential to score in the SaberCats’ offense. However, he hasn’t been able to step on the field this season due to injuries suffered prior to the opener, but his eventual replacement, OS Rashied Davis, has shined in his stead. So, as it turns out, I had the right offense, but the wrong player. It’s injuries like these that make any draft as tenuous as a roll of the dice.
There’s always next year
To quote Dennis Miller, "I don’t mean to go off on a rant here, but…"
There is money in fantasy football and if the Arena Football League hopes to collect their share, they need to ensure that the status of players on a week-by-week basis is readily available. There is nothing more frustrating than sitting your star player because he is listed as doubtful or out only to have him play and score more points than whomever you started in his place. Well, maybe only slightly more frustrating is starting a player only to find out on gameday, when it’s too late to make a change, that he’s not going to play.
Now I understand that in some ways the injury report, while meant to be accurate, can give an advantage, or at least reduce the opposing team’s advantage, when it is not entirely clear if a player is going to play. It limits the ability to game plan around stopping a certain player or style of play, and therefore is part of the pre-game preparation.
However, if enough fantasy owners get tired of not knowing who is available each week, the interest will wane, making the fantasy game a tougher sell. It is a tough balance between the league’s desires and what is best for each individual team, but it is something that bears review.
Patrick Daly has been an Arena Football League enthusiast since he first stumbled across the late-night ESPN broadcasts and has followed the Arizona Rattlers since their inaugural season in 1992. He graduated from Arizona State University with an engineering degree and is currently a member of a web development team for Direct Alliance in Tempe. Patrick currently resides in the Phoenix suburb of Chandler, Arizona with his beautiful wife, son and a very large football helmet collection.
