Schedule Inconsistency Plagues AFL on NBC Ratings
Joe Kauffman
Friday April 30, 2004
Even the simplest of plans can wind up complicated.
The AFL on NBC Nielsen ratings have been decent in 2004. Sure, they are higher on average when compared to the same portion of the 2003 season, but there are just too many problems with the way the television schedule has been treated to keep audiences tuned in from week-to-week and allow for long-term success.
AFL on NBC is Sundays at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, right?
Well, not always.
Of the first 11 weeks of the regular season, only five weeks fell in the Sunday 3:00 p.m. timeslot. In addition, there were four weeks where games were televised Sunday at noon, one week with a Saturday 3:00 p.m. kickoff and, of course, Week 8 with no televised game at all.
| Week | Day/Time | Rating |
| 1 | Sunday - 3:00 p.m. | 2.1 |
| 2 | Saturday - 3:00 p.m. | 1.7 |
| 3 | Sunday - 3:00 p.m. | 1.4 |
| 4 | Sunday - 3:00 p.m. | 1.5 |
| 5 | Sunday - 12:00 noon | 1.2 |
| 6 | Sunday - 12:00 noon | 1.0 |
| 7 | Sunday - 12:00 noon | 1.0 |
| 8 | Not televised | n/a |
| 9 | Sunday - 12:00 noon | 1.0 |
| 10 | Sunday - 3:00 p.m. | 0.7 |
| 11 | Sunday - 3:00 p.m. | 0.8 |
The Ratings Game
During the 2004 season, the average ratings change when the game start time changes is -0.325. All four occurrences resulted in ratings drops. When the game has carried over a consistent start time from week to week, there have been two increases and one decrease. The average ratings have not dropped.
This is an interesting observation to say the least, so let’s expand to include the 2003 AFL on NBC season.
In 2003 and 2004 combined, there have been 15 games where the timeslot was consistent with the previous week. When compared to the previous week, the average Nielsen ratings were unchanged, with a breakdown of eight increases, five decreases and two weeks where the change was even. During the same time period, when the timeslot has changed from the previous week, a total of six occurrences, the average ratings have changed from the previous week by -0.28 and all six instances were decreases.
So, what does this mean?
In short, it has been very easy for the AFL to lose its audience due to inconsistent AFL on NBC scheduling, but it is harder to bring them back.
Dropping Games
February is a cold month in most of the United States, and people like to stay indoors. That’s a positive not only for AFL attendance, but for capturing television viewers as well. But as March moves into April, and April moves into May, the outside distractions start to kick in, pulling people away from their television screens.
What can be done to keep the viewers in front of their televisions?
Televise games that matter to the market that is airing the game.
On the surface, it’s easy to understand why a game that is likely to have low attendance is taken off the AFL on NBC schedule. No one wants to look at an arena that is only filled to 40% of capacity. But is it really the smart thing to do? More and more, the Arena Football League has been putting their eggs in the NBC basket, especially with player salaries and benefits under the Collective Bargaining Agreement. It has gotten to the point where attendance revenue isn’t enough to support an AFL franchise anymore. Only revenue realized from television will be able to keep the League financially viable.
Instead of choosing not to broadcast a game from a half-empty arena, show the game in the market for the road team. People in that market have a vested interest in the game and will not care if 60, 600 or 6,000 people are in the stands because it’s the only way they can see their team play when on the road. While the die-hard fans are fans of the Arena Football game as a whole, the majority of ticket buyers, the average fans, only care about the team that plays in their town. They are more likely to tune into an AFL on NBC game if their team is playing than if it is a pair of teams they care nothing about.
I know there is not a lot of flexibility for the AFL on NBC schedule because of arena availability, but the AFL and NBC need to take advantage of it when they have the chance. They need to carefully study how the ratings break down in each market that has a team. What they will find, as is always the case with anything televised, is that some markets are doing relatively well, some are mediocre and some do horribly no matter what.
It’s time to give up on the lost-cause markets, and those doing well don’t need to any help. It is those mediocre markets that need to be targeted and pulled in. The best way to do that is if their team is on the road and it can be scheduled to be shown on NBC, make sure it happens.
Final Thoughts
The Nielsen ratings for the AFL on NBC have been up this year on average, but I still find the increase disappointing. More research could have been done when choosing which games to air. I know that not much can be done about the inconsistent scheduling.
Regardless, the scheduling issue is a fundamental flaw in the plan that cannot be compensated for, and it is directly harming the progress that could have come from this partnership.
Still, the ultimate question is whether NBC will renew the agreement for 2005.
Frankly, I don’t know.
Joe Kauffman is President and Editor in Chief of Arenafan Online, having joined the staff in 2000. He graduated from Florida State University in 1998 with a degree in communications andbuilds ecommerce sites for a day job. Joe has enjoyed Arena Football since 1991 and has been a member of the Arena Football Internet community since 1995. Prior to Joining Arenafan, he was a co-founder and Technical Editor of the Storm Shelter, which covered the Tampa Bay Storm from 1996-99. Joe and his wife Erika live in Hackettstown, New Jersey with their two daughters.
