Do the Math
Scott Miller
Friday March 28, 2003
The Gladiators’ 50-32 victory over Buffalo and a brief analysis of some statistics allowed me to make my predictions about the Arena Football League season and the Las Vegas Gladiators in particular.
The Arena Football League’s Fan Bill of Rights says, “We believe that every fan should receive the very best in competitive football….” Some teams are clearly better than others. But having almost every game in contention until the last few minutes of the fourth quarter is exciting for the fans. The offense-oriented nature of Arena Football has made for many exciting game finishes this season. Do you need more evidence of competitive parity? Look at the standings. Halfway through the season, every division has a tie for first place. Five teams are tied for the best record in the league!
The statistical match up between Las Vegas and Buffalo points to a problem for the Gladiators (even in victory). The teams had identical records going into their contest. Analysis showed this to be a close game. In retrospect, I think the outcome could have been easily predicted. Furthermore, this information can be used to predict the rest of the Gladiators season. This method does not use statistics such as total offense or total defense. It is a simple analysis for a coefficient of correlation.
The analysis revealed that the win-loss record of the opposing team was the best predictor of the Gladiators’ success. The Gladiators are 1-3 against teams with a winning record and 3-1 against teams with a losing record. Based on these statistics, the Gladiators will finish the season 7-9. As an unabashed homer, I hope I am wrong.
The game statistics for the Gladiators also provide an explanation of why the record of opponents is a good predictor. It is something mentioned in my other columns: penalties. In every game this season, except one, the Gladiators have had more penalties than their opponent; usually, two or three times the number of penalties. In the Buffalo game, the Gladiators had eleven penalties. Five of those were for offsides and illegal defense. Halfway through the season, players should not be figuring out where to be when the ball is snapped.
I predict that the Gladiators will be in the game that sets the AFL record for most penalties in a game. They came close in their game against the Chicago Rush with eighteen penalties between the two teams. However, the same day the Colorado Crush and the Arizona Rattlers managed to ring up twenty!
Remember there is a reason why sportswriters don’t make their living wagering on sports. Walk through a Las Vegas sports book at the end of any football game for a reminder (as half the bettors tear up their losing tickets) of why these games are decided by playing them, not by comparing statistics and rankings. And, why Arena Football is such an exciting game!
The Gladiators are two-point underdogs at home Saturday night against the Georgia Force. I encourage every fan to come out and see if my math is correct.
Scott Miller is a professional computer geek and talk show host in Las Vegas. His show is streamed live from klav120am.com on Fridays at 8PM. Archives of his show, The Usual Suspects can be found at his website.
