Big David`s Big Gamble
Matthew Pickut
Thursday January 2, 2003
“Look, if you had one shot, one opportunity, To seize everything you ever wanted…One moment. Would you capture it or just let it slip?”
Its not quite “carpe deim”, but the opening lines of “Lose Yourself” from 8-mile might have just as well be written about the AFL this season. It’s their one shot to make a second first impression on America, and it’s do or die. Either take advantage of it, or like Rabbit – go back to the trailer park.
“You better lose yourself in the music, the moment. You own it, you better never let it go. You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow. This opportunity comes once in a lifetime yo!”
By this point the whole room is grooving with the hook (as much as a roomful of Indiana sports writers and Firebirds sponsors can groove with a hook), enjoying the highlights... and it hits me: It’s now or never for the AFL. Either the league makes the big time in the next two years or every cynic, neighsayer, and non-believer gets to say, “I told you so!”
“We’re in the business of selling inspiration,” Baker would say later in a speech that ranged from Martin Luther King, Christmas presents, and how to gift rap a dog (his tip: use a lot of duct tape). You could sense that the big guy (currently listing himself as a few muffins the other side of 400 lbs) knew what was a stake with this upcoming year.
So what’s the big gamble? I mean everything is set up for success, isn’t it? We’ll I don’t mean to be a buzz kill, but a lot could still go wrong. With the current television deal NBC has an interest in seeing the league do well. What’s wrong with that? Well, networks have a way of trying to control what they have an interest in, and while NBC may know how to run a network, they’ve already proven (see the XFL) that they don’t know how to run a league.
For example:
1. Expansion – It’s especially risky that NBC now has an interest in expansion fees. The AFL just went through contraction a few years ago, but with the TV deal team values are going to go up, making expansion very attractive to the network types who get part of the fees. Regardless of the price people are going to pay to get into the league, however, bad ownership is still bad ownership, and a bad market is still a bad market. Over expansion is making the NHL, the NBA, and MLB unwatchable. The league has worked so hard at getting to parity, it would be a shame to loose it now, because NBC is looking for a quick buck.
2. Attendance – One thing looks worse than anything else on TV when it comes to sports: Empty Seats. Try watching a WNBA game on TV (go ahead, try it, I dare you!) and you’ll have all the evidence you need. With the shortened off-season (especially in the new Las Vegas market) the challenge to put butts in seats becomes an even more important challenge. The AFL is a game that is best seen live. The TV exposure is going to be great, but you don’t get the full effect of the indoor game with being there in person. It becomes a vicious circle – the TV looks bad because of empty seats, and there are empty seats because some people don’t get the full effect of the game on TV. If NBC doesn’t help market arena attendance it could wind up shooting itself and the league in the foot.
3. The Mush Factor – Don’t get me wrong I love NBC (The more Law & Order shows the better I say!) but as much as sports is about selling inspiration, and in the larger picture the Commish is right, the inspiration has to come from the game first. If NBC goes all “Olympic human interest story” on the AFL, things could get very mushy, very fast. One of the better comments the big guy made during his speech was that the AFL is not just a feeder league for the NFL (I guess that deal is dead), and if NBC doesn’t buy into that, get ready for two years of stories that hype the NFL more than the AFL.
The video closed with Charlie Sheen in Wall Street remarking to his protégée, “Every battle that was ever fought was won before it ever began.” I have to believe that the league has already thought of all of this, but I’m hoping they haven’t become overconfident. If they have, we may only have a few years of enjoying the AFL on a national scene before its back to the trailer park with indoor soccer, the WNBA, and roller hockey.
Drop Kicks
The rest of the lunch included the normal informational speeches about television contracts and sponsorships. Most interesting among them was the announcement that the Firebird’s Ari Wolfe and General Manager Joe Hennessey will host a weekly ‘variety show’ on ESPN 950 am during the season. Personally, I’m expecting tap dancing and musical numbers a-la Laurence Welk. And hey Ari, if it helps me get on the show I publicly take back everything I said about your MJ, he won’t be the first active player with a endorsement contract with Metamucil and I can juggle.
OL/DL Chris Snyder was at the luncheon and mentioned that he’s bartending in Broadripple. I’m just guessing but, when Chris said you’ve had enough you don’t argue. I also saw RB/FB Sunungura Rusununguko who looked like he’s slimed down over the off-season, look for “Go-Go” to see more playing time this year. Yo.
Matthew Pickut is a pastor in northern Indiana and a long time AFL fan. He also writes for his own website: The Brown Paper Blog. He graduated from Taylor University in Upland Indiana (class of `96) with degrees in Biblical Literature and Sociology as well as a healthy respect for the medicinal properties of coffee.
