Why Scoring is Up
Charliy Nash
Friday April 6, 2007
Before the season started the “experts” all told us how the new rules would contribute to more defense, less penalties, and lower scores (giving us that “more competitive” or “more exciting” game that the rules committee promoted as the driving force for the change). After five weeks, with scores up an average ten points per game, those predictions seem to be about as prescient as your run of the mill fortune cookie. Were these the same guys who predicted a Y2K crisis?
As one who predicted higher scores as an unintended consequence of the new free substitution rules, let me explain why this is happening.
Do The Math
First, let’s look at the old configuration. On offense there was one full time WR and a pair of two-way players. The defense had two full-time DB’s and one ironman.
Add one full-time defender to the secondary and that is a 50% improvement. Increase the number of one-way receivers from one to three and you get a 200% bump. You don’t have to be smarter than a fifth grader to figure out which side that equation favors.
I projected that the change would be a wash for the offensive and defensive lines, but further analysis shows this not to be true. In the good old days, most offenses usually had only one true offensive lineman flanked by guys who were pass rusher for most of their lives. On defense there would be two or three defensive linemen. So once again the O line gains far more from “free sub” than the D line.
Special Packages
Let’s talk about the jumbo package. Rushing touchdowns are way up because when teams get into the red zone they can pull their receivers for additional linemen. Good running teams can now easily score if they get a first and goal situation.
There are other situations where the ability to substitute favors the offense because of the limited roster size. Let’s say you’ve got the ball deep in your own end. You can send a receiver or two on a long “streak” or “fly” pattern and the defender will have to chase him. Since most teams dress four receivers and three defensive backs, the offense can rotate receivers while the defense has to run their legs off – if one of them needs to go out he’ll be replaced by a part-time defender, again giving the advantage to the offense.
Practice, Practice, Practice
Another advantage I had not considered is the practice factor.
“It’s a lot easier to get on the same page with three receivers than it is with six,” explained Philadelphia Soul quarterback Tony Graziani. More repetitions with fewer players equals a far more effective offense.
“I think the biggest thing that’s helped our running game has been, because of the rule change, the offensive linemen can really concentrate on run blocking, whereas before we just worked on pass blocking,” said Nashville Kats’ fullback Dan Alexander, “I’m actually doing running back drills for the first time in three years, since I was in the NFL, instead of just doing pass blocking drills.” Alexander leads the league with 15 rushing touchdowns and is on track to break the league’s single season rushing record.
“I love just playing offense,” Kats’ receiver Cornelius Bonner said, “I don’t really miss playing defensive back that much. I don’t have to worry about being beat up on offense and having to go out there and beat somebody else on on defense. It’s a lot easier on my body.” Bonner had always been productive on both sides of the ball, but could be having the best receiving season of his career. He has already been called on to fill in on the secondary this season, so he still takes some practice on defense. “At any moment during the game, somebody could go down. I’m next in line.”
A mathematical advantage, special packages, and the practice factor. If the powers that be wanted to boost the defense and lower the scores, they did the opposite. Just ask the experts.
