Breaking it Down - 2010 Week 16
Andy Lopusnak
Thursday July 22, 2010
Seven of the eight playoff teams have been decided as well as two division titles. Three total teams clinched playoff berths, while two were eliminated. Jacksonville and Tampa Bay swapped places despite losing AFL all-time leading passer Aaron Garcia and Spokane's road until ArenaBowl XXIII will be at home. This and my top offensive player of the year await you in the Week 16 edition of Breaking it Down.
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WEEK 16 RESULTS
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Spokane 48, IOWA 42
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ARIZONA 48, Utah 20
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CLEVELAND 44, Oklahoma City 39
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JACKSONVILLE 49, Tampa Bay 47
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MILWAUKEE 57, Orlando 41
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Dallas 65, CHICAGO 52 (OT)
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Tulsa 61, ALABAMA 48
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BYE: Bossier-Shreveport
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WEEK 16 HIGHLIGHTS
· Nine receivers with 100 yards
· Two passers with 300 yards (both had exactly 310)
· The home team went 4-3
· Arizona, Milwaukee and Tulsa clinched playoff berths
· Cleveland and Iowa were eliminated
· The National Conference playoff teams are set (SPO, CHI, AZ, MIL)
· Jacksonville jumped Tampa Bay to take the lead in the South Division
· Spokane clinched home-field throughout the National Conference playoffs
· Tulsa clinched the Southwest Division and a first-round home playoff game
· Orlando, Oklahoma City and Alabama all lost and remained tied for the final playoff spot
· OKC moved into the #4 spot thanks to Alabama's loss to Tulsa (explained in detail later)
QUICK RECAPS
Spokane won its league-leading tenth straight game by topping Iowa. The Shock offense scored touchdowns on seven of eight drives and the defense recovered two fumbles. However, a decision to attempt an onside kick and a turnover on downs in the final minute of the first half propelled the Barnstomrers from a 20-point deficit into a point lead early in the third quarter, but the Shock overcame to pull out the close victory. Spokane QB Kyle Rowley tossed six scores and ran in another during the contest. Spokane 48, Iowa 42.
Arizona clinched a playoff berth thanks to the blowout win over Utah. Rattlers QB Nick Davila, WR Rod Windsor and various other starters didn’t play the game’s final 18 minutes after the outcome was decided. Windsor broke a tie with former Blaze WR Siaha Burley for the league’s all-time single-season receptions. Arizona 48, Utah 20.
Cleveland won its first game when it didn't score at least 68 points, but was eliminated from playoff contention about an hour after the game when Milwaukee won. The Glads defense had five takeaways but barely escaped with the victory after QB John Dutton completed a mere 42.9% of his passes (15-of-35). Cleveland 44, Oklahoma City 39.
Milwaukee locked up a playoff berth win its win over Orlando. Down 14-6 after the first quarter, the Iron outscored the Preds 30-6 in the second and then matched scores in the second half. Iron QB Chris Greisen completed 20-of-27 for 310 yards with seven touchdowns and an interception (returned for a TD by Rayshawn Kizer - the league's leader in picks). Milwaukee 57, Orlando 41.
Dallas ended an eleven-game losing skid with a 13-point overtime win over Midwest Division leading Chicago. The Vigilantes jumped to a 14-0 lead and was still up by two TDs at the one-minute mark in the first half. Chicago had the next four scores to take a nine-point lead, but lost starting QB Russ Michna with a rib injury during the run. Dallas came back and tied it at the end of regulation forcing overtime. After the Vigilantes scored first in OT, the Rush marched down to the Dallas two-yard line before backup QB JJ Ratterink was picked off by Delenall Reid who sprinted 50 yards for a touchdown. Dallas 65, Chicago 52 (OT).
Despite losing starting QB Aaron Garcia to injury twice in the first quarter, Jacksonville managed to match the Storm's scoring until early in the fourth quarter after Tampa Bay kicker Garrett Rivas missed an extra point. Sharks backup QB Bernard Morris barely completed over 50% of his passes but didn't make a mistake tossing four scores and running in another score. The Storm scored with eight seconds to go but failed on a two-point conversion that would've sent the game to overtime. With the win, the Sharks move ahead of the Storm for the #1 seed in the American Conference and can win the South Division with a win and a Storm loss. Jacksonville 49, Tampa Bay 47.
Tulsa won the Southwest Division midway through its game against Alabama thanks to OKC's loss. The Talons clawed their way back from a 21-0 deficit to force a tie at the half. Tulsa lineman Gabe Nyenhuis forced two fumbles and had two sacks to boost the comeback. Tulsa 61, Alabama 48.
WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
Alabama: eliminated with a loss
Chicago: wins Midwest Division with a win AND a Milwaukee loss
Jacksonville: wins South Division and home-field advantage throughout American Conference with a win AND a Tampa Bay loss (JAX owns the tiebreaker with Tulsa if both teams finish with the same record based on beating the Talons earlier this season)
Milwaukee: wins Midwest Division with a win AND a Chicago loss (MIL & CHI split season series and both would have same division record of 4-2 thus the tiebreaker would go to point differential in the head-to-head which MIL is +18)
Oklahoma City: clinches playoff berth with a win AND an Alabama loss
Oklahoma City: eliminated with a loss
Orlando: clinches playoff berth with a win AND an Alabama loss
Orlando: eliminated with a loss
Spokane: clinched the number-one overall playoff seed with the ability to host ArenaBowl XXIII with a win OR a Jacksonville loss
WHAT’S THE SCENARIO?
When the league sent out its “AFL Playoff update” on Monday morning, I immediately contacted ArenaFan head honcho Joe Kauffman to contact the league to see how they put Orlando ahead of Oklahoma City for the final playoff position. Joe sent an email right away, but we still haven’t heard back yet.
The problem is that the AFL says that the Preds are #4 because the first tiebreaker in a three-team situation (win-loss percentage in games among the three teams). However, using the league's own language this tiebreaker is null and void since Orlando and OKC have yet to play each other: "All teams must have played all other tied teams head-to-head for step 1 to be utilized in a multiple-team tie."
So, you must get to the next tiebreaker (record in games against common opponents). By doing this, Orlando and OKC flip positions meaning that if the playoffs started today OKC would be in and Orlando would be out thus the league’s playoff standings are incorrect. Of course, all of this is will be moot on Saturday when Orlando and OKC play with the loser being eliminated and the winner going to the postseason (assuming Alabama loses to Tampa Bay). Once we get a definitive answer on which situation is correct, we will update this article and also post it on the ArenaFan message board.
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED RIGHT NOW
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
#4 Oklahoma City (6-8) at #1 Jacksonville (10-4; South Division leader)
#3 Tampa Bay (10-4) at #2 Tulsa (8-5; Southwest Division champion)
NATIONAL CONFERENCE
#4 Milwaukee (9-5) at #1 Spokane (12-2; West Division champion)
#3 Arizona (9-5) at #2 Chicago (10-4; Midwest Division leader)
TIEBREAKERS BREAKDOWNS
· Jacksonville is ahead of Tampa Bay based on sweeping season series.
· Arizona is ahead of Milwaukee because the Rattlers beat the Iron 68-67 head-to-head on June 5.
· Oklahoma City is ahead of Orlando and Alabama because of the #2 tiebreaker when three teams are tied (record in common opponents since the three have yet to play head-to-head).
· All three have played six common opponents: B-S, JAX, IOWA, TUL, TB & DAL.
· OKC and Alabama are both 4-5 (44.4%), while Orlando is 3-4 (42.9%) thus, Orlando is bumped out.
· Next, revert to step one in the two teams procedure and since OKC beat Alabama 65-39 on May 28 then OKC is the #4 seed.
· That leaves Alabama and Orlando for the #5 and #6 seeds and since Orlando swept Alabama, Orlando goes to #5.
LAST GAME AT THE JUNGLE
This Saturday night’s OKC-Orlando game marks the final AFL game to be played at the Amway Arena (originally the Orlando Arena and known to AFL fans as the Jungle). The game will most likely decide the final playoff spot in the 2010 AFL postseason and AFL legend Barry Wagner will be inducted into the Preds’ Ring of Honor during a halftime ceremony. More AFL games have been played at the Jungle than any other building. The finale will be the 150th overall to be played there. This includes three ArenaBowls (1992, 1994 and 2000). I’ve opted to go witness this final game instead of covering the Vipers-Storm game and will post lots of photos from the event on ArenaFan next week.
GET YOUR BALLOTS IN
When I was a PR director in this league, at this point in the season is when I would prepare a list of my players that I thought would be great candidates from the AFL Player of the Year awards. This week, I will focus on the top six players I consider strong candidates for the 2010 AFL Offensive Player of the Year.
2010 AFL BREAKING IT DOWN OFFENSIVE PLAYER NOMINEES
To be fair, I've listed my top three receivers (Tulsa's Donovan Morgan, Cleveland's Ben Nelson and Arizona's Rod Windsor) and top three passers (Tampa Bay's Brett Dietz, Milwaukee's Chris Greisen and Spokane's Kyle Rowley). I will compare each receiver and passer based on AFL rankings in all relevant categories.
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TOP RECEIVERS - AFL RANKS
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CATEGORY
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MORGAN
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NELSON
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WINDSOR
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Receptions
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110 (7th)
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151 (2nd)
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(174) 1st
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Receiving Yards
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1,621 (3rd)
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1,867 (2nd)
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(2,067) 1st
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Yards/Reception*
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14.7 (2nd)
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12.4 (10th)
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11.9 (15th)
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Receiving TD
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45 (2nd)
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47 (1st)
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(41) 3rd
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Rushing TD by WR
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0
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0
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7 (2nd)
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Passing TD by WR
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0
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0
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1 (N/A)
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Total Touchdowns
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45 (3rd)
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47 (2nd)
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(48) 1st
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Points Scored
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276 (3rd)
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282 (2nd)
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(292) 1st
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2pt conversions
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3 (T-2nd)
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0
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2 (T-4th)
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* need 1,000 yards to qualify
Morgan is seventh in the league in catches but third in yards thanks to his impressive 14.7 yards per catch. His 45 scores through the air are second most in the league. Morgan, the 2008 AFL Rookie of the Year, has scored in all 14 games played and has ten 100-yard games. Morgan has three games with five receiving scores and six more with at least three touchdowns. He's catching a touchdown 41.5% of his receptions this season, which leads the league and is the ninth best percentage in league history.
Nelson, whose season is done due to an injury, scored at least two touchdowns in all 14 games he played to go along with double-digit catches in ten games and has a league-leading twelve 100-yard games (tied with Windsor). His best game of the season came in the Week Seven win over Tulsa when he caught 13 balls for 202 yards with six touchdowns.
Windsor has already set the league single-season marks for receptions and will likely become the all-time leader in receiving yards (needs just 63 yards). He's been an all-around threat offensively with seven rushing scores and even a passing touchdown. Windsor is just eight points from becoming the ninth player in league history to score 300 points in a single season (on pace for the second most ever). In addition, he already has the league rookie records in all receiving categories as well as total touchdowns and points scored.
On the year, Windsor's posted a league-high twelve 100-yard games to go along with eleven ten-plus catch games. His fewest catches in a game is eight, which he did three times. Windsor's most dominating performance was in Week Four against Tulsa when he caught 16 balls for 230 yards with six scores. He also had two rushing TDs in the game. He's had five games where he caught at least 15 passes.
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TOP PASSERS - AFL RANKS
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CATEGORY
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DIETZ
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GREISEN
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ROWLEY
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Record as Starter
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10-4 (T-2nd)
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9-5 (T-5th)
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12-2 (1st)
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Pass Yards/Game
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4,396 (3rd)
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323.5 (1st)
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276.8 (6th)
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Pass TD
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97 (1st)
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95 (2nd)
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89 (5th)
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Completion Pct
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65.2 (5th)
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67.2 (2nd)
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65.5 (4th)
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Passer Rating
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122.3 (3rd)
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127.7 (1st)
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121.1 (4th)
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Least INT Thrown
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13 (3rd)
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9 (T-1st)
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9 (T-1st)
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Rush TD by QB
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0
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2 (T-7th)
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6 (T-4th)
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Dietz leads the AFL in passing touchdowns and is on pace for the second most in league history. In addition, his 19.7 pass attempts per touchdown leads the league and is the eighth best in league history. He's thrown at least five scores in all 14 games and missed various parts of games because the Storm was blowing out some opponents. Dietz has nine 300-yard games. Only five of his 13 interceptions came in losses (two of his four losses were by a combined five points). All four losses were against playoff teams (Week One at Tulsa; Week Four at Milwaukee; Week Six vs. Jacksonville and Week 16 at Jacksonville). Dietz also stands third in the league in passing yards, passer rating and least interceptions thrown by a starting of at least ten games.
Greisen leads the league in passer rating and passing yards per game. He's on pace to break the league record for passing yards in a single season (by about 100 yards). Greisen leads the league in games with 300 or more yards (ten). He began the season with five straight games without an interception and had just one after eight games. He's tied for the least number of interceptions and has the second most passing TDs and second highest completion percentage. Greisen posted a perfect passer-rated game in Week 14 when he completed 21-og-23 for 330 yards with eight TD and no interceptions (158.33 rating). He's got a league-high ten games with a passer rating of over 120 (over 100 rating in 13 of 14 games). The Iron leads the league in points scored, touchdowns scored, total offensive, passing offense, third-down conversions and Greisen has been scored just once.
Rowley's numbers are not statistically as impressive as Dietz or Greisen in certain regards, but as the signal caller for the league's best team he's still right up there with them. He is tied with Greisen for the least interceptions. Rowley has six 300-yard games and has posted seven passing scores in eight games. He's had a rating of over 10 in all 14 games and completed over 70% in six games. In addition to his passing numbers that are all in the top six, he also has six rushing scores (tied for fourth most among QBs).
There are a few other players that have posted impressive seasons like Arizona QB Nick Davila, but I believe his five games with multiple interceptions diminishes his possibility to win this award.
WINDS OF CHANGE
On his first catch against Chicago, Arizona WR Rod Windsor broke a tie for the AFL record for receptions in a single season (166, previously tied with Siaha Burley, 2007 Utah). Though he didn't play the final 18 minutes because of the blowout win, Windsor still managed to grab eight balls for 136 yards with two touchdowns. He needs to get just 63 more receiving yards to become the league's all-time single-season leader. Thanks to his marvelous season thus far, Windsor had workout with the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles on Tuesday. As of Thursday, the Eagles have not offered him a contract and Windsor is expected to play this week against Tulsa. The Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints (head coach Sean Payton was an AFL backup QB in 1987 with the Chicago Bruisers where he completed five-of-14 passes for 47 yards with three interceptions for a passer rating of 6.25) have also expressed interest in Windsor.
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AFL SINGLE-SEASON RECEIVING RECORDS
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PLAYER/RANK
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RECEPTIONS
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PLAYER/RANKS
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REC YARDS
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1. Rod Windsor, AZ (2010)
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174
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1. Siaha Burley, UT (2007)
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2,129
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2. Siaha Burley, UT (2007)
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166
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2. Rod Windsor, AZ (2010)
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2,067
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3. Marcus Nash, LV (2004)
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154
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3. C. Schexnayder, AZ (1998)
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1,982
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4. Damian Harrell, COL (2006)
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152
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4. Siaha Burley, UT (2006)
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1,934
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5. Ben Nelson, CLE (2010)
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151
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5. Damian Harrell, COL (2006)
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1,920
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BOLD = active
HARK THE HARRELL
Milwaukee WR Damian Harrell surpassed the 1,000-yard mark on the season last week. It marks his ninth-straight year with at least 1,000 yards. Earlier this season, he became the league's all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards. In 2008, he became the league's all-time leader in receiving touchdowns.
RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
Tuesday afternoon, the Chicago Rush announced that starting QB Russ Michna, receiver Kenny Higgins and OL Shawn McMackin would be out for the rest of the season after injuries suffered last week. The Rush needs a win in its season finale this week at Spokane to lock up the Midwest Division crown (a loss and a Milwaukee win gives the Iron the division title). This isn’t the first time that Chicago has been without the league’s most accurate passer. In Week 12 against Milwaukee, Michna missed the game because of prior commitments to the UFL. Therefore, JJ Raternik made his first AFL start and led the Rush to an improbable win over the then Midwest-leading Iron after completing 26-of-37 for 296 yards and five touchdowns. He led them back from two 21-point defecits for the win.
LOSING BY 13 IN OT?
Yes, the Rush's overtime loss to Dallas was stunning to say the least but looking at the surface, a 13-point loss in overtime seems almost impossible. Though rare, a 13-point OT point differential has happened before. This was the third time in league history that it has occurred.
I happened to be at first such occurance as a fan back in 1996 when the Storm and Albany Firebirds were tied at 52 entering the extra stanza. The Storm scored first, then after pinning the Firebirds deep in their own territory, Lawrence Samuels intercepted a pass and walked into the end zone for the final score of 65-52.
The other time was in 2000 when the New England SeaWolves overcame a ten-point deficit in the final two minutes to forced overtime against Carolina. After a quick New England TD, Anthony Derricks intercepted Cobras QB Fred McNair and returned it 34 yards to give the SeaWolves a 64-51 OT victory.
Of special note: In the league's first ever overtime game on June 20, 1987, the eventual ArenaBowl I champion Denver Dynamite, led by current Tampa Bay head coach Tim Marcum, beat the Chciago Bruisers 52-44 after scoring twice in the "fifth quarter." First the Dynamite scored a TD, then Bruisers QB Mike Hold was sacked for a safety to end the game and give the sports world the first two-score overtime win.
THE GIFT OF GABE
Tulsa lineman Gabe Nyenhuis has pretty much locked up AFL Lineman of the Year (and possible Defensive Player of the Year). His league-leading 12.5 sacks is tied for the second most in league history and he needs just one solo takedown to surpass the league mark set by Pittsburgh Gladiators OL/DL Craig Walls during the AFL's inaugural 1987 showcase season (next closest competition has eight sacks). In addition, Nyenhuis' nine forced fumbles are a new AFL single-season record. This past week against Alabama, he posted two sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
WHAT THE DUECE?
There’s a possibility that all four AFL divisions could be won by four teams that were not members of the AFL in 2008. Former af2 squads (West Division: Spokane and Southwest Division: Tulsa) already have won division crowns and the other division could be won this weekend. Expansion Jacksonville leads the South Division and locks up the American Conference #1 seed and the division with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. Milwaukee, a 2009 af2 expansion team, can win the Midwest Division with a win and a Chicago loss.
WEEK 16’S STATS LEADERS
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100-YARD RECEIVERS
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PLAYER, TEAM
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RECEIVING YARDS
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RECEPTIONS
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TOUCHDOWNS
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Roderick Green, TUL
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152
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9
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2
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Jesse Schmidt, IOWA
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148
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10
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3
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Rod Windsor, AZ
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136
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8
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2
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Victor Williams, CLE
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132
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6
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2
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Jeff Hughley, TUL
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111
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9
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2
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Larry Shipp, BAMA
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105
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9
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2
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Damian Harrell, MIL
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104
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6
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3
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Hank Edwards, TB
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104
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7
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2
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Huey Whittaker, SPO
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104
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11
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3
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300-YARD PASSERS
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PLAYER, TEAM
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PASSING YARDS
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PASS TDs
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INTERCEPTIONS
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Chris Greisen, MIL
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310
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7
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1
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Justin Allgood, TUL
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310
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6
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1
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BREAKING IT DOWN MVP OF THE WEEK: Gabe Nyenhuis, Tulsa lineman
Nyenhuis had two sacks, forced two fumbles and recovered a fumble in the Talons' come-from-behind victory. With Tulsa down 21-14 in the second, Nyenhuis forced a fumble on a running play that teammate Jamar Ransom recovered that set up a TD to tie the game. His next monster play happened at the start of the third quarter when he sacked Tony Colston, forcing a fumble that set up a touchdown to help the Talons start pulling away. Then early in the fourth quarter, he had a sack on first down then three plays later, he recovered a fumble that sealed the Tulsa victory.
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2010 BREAKING IT DOWN MVP OF THE WEEK
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WEEK
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PLAYER, TEAM
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STAT NOTE
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1
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Chris Greisen, Milwaukee QB
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83 comp. pct, 327 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT
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2
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PJ Berry, Bossier-Shreveport WR/KR
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357 all-purpose yards, 201 rec yds, 7 total TD
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3
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Kyle Rowley, Spokane QB
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75.7 comp. pct, 316 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush TD
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4
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Rod Windsor, Arizona WR
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16 receptions, 230 rec. yards 6 rec TD, 2 rush TD
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5
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Tanner Varner, Iowa DB
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15.0 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBU, 1 TD
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6
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Tommy Grady, Oklahoma City QB
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81 comp. pct, 430 pass yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
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7
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Ben Nelson, Cleveland WR
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13 receptions, 202 yards, 6 TD
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8
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Nick Hill, Orlando QB
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314 yards, 5 pass TD, 1 INT, 21 rushing yards, 3 rush TD
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9
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Caesar Rayford, Utah lineman
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3 defensive TD (2 INT, 1 fumble), 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1 FF
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10
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Rod Windsor, Arizona WR
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16 rec, 162 yards, 3 rec TD, 2 rush TD, GW 2pt conv.
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11
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Tiger Jones, Milwaukee WR
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11 rec. 138 yards, 5 TD
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12
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Nick Davila, Arizona QB
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77 comp pct, 319 yards, 9 TD, 0 INT
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13
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Ryan Vena, Iowa QB
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90.9% (20/22), 245 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 38 rush yds (1 TD)
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14
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Chris Greisen, Milwaukee QB
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91.3% (21/23), 330 yards, 8 TD, 0 INT, 158.33 rating
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15
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Donovan Morgan, Tulsa WR
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9 receptions, 180 receiving yards, 5 TD, 1 tackle
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16
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Gabe Nyenhuis, Tulsa DL
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2 sacks, 2 FF, 1 fumble recovery
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Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
