Playoff Picture Breakdown – After Week 16 Friday games
Andy Lopusnak
Saturday July 17, 2010
Friday night, Arizona became the fifth team to qualify for the playoffs and Spokane moved one step closer to securing homefield advantage throughout the entire postseason. Tonight, three division titles could be won, the National Conference playoff teams might be decided and overall seven of eight playoff teams could be in the books.
All five games tonight have playoff implications.
Tonight, Tampa Bay (with a win), Chicago (with a win and a Milwaukee loss) and Tulsa (with a win or an OKC loss) can clinch their respective divisions. If so, then we will know the destinations for the first round of the playoffs: National Conference: at Spokane (decided last week), at Chicago -- American Conference: at Tampa Bay, at Tulsa.
In addition, Milwaukee can get into the playoffs by beating Orlando. If all this does happens, it means seven of the eight playoff teams will be settled (Cleveland and Iowa will also be eliminated as well). Thus, Oklahoma City, Orlando and Alabama are left battling for the final spot in the American Conference. The winner of the Week 17 OKC-Orlando game will likely be the final playoff team (as both hold tiebreakers over Alabama).
WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
Alabama: eliminated with a loss AND wins by Oklahoma City and Orlando
Chicago: clinches Midwest Division a win AND a Milwaukee loss
Cleveland: eliminated with a loss OR a Milwaukee win
Iowa: eliminated with a Milwaukee win
Milwaukee: clinches a playoff berth with a win
Spokane: clinches homefield advantage throughout National Conference playoffs with a Chicago loss
Spokane: clinches homefield advantage throughout all playoffs, including ArenaBowl XXIII with losses by Chicago and Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay: clinches South Division title with a win.
Tulsa: clinches playoff berth with a win AND an Orlando loss
Tulsa: clinches playoff berth and wins Southwest Division with a win OR an Oklahoma City loss
CURRENT PLAYOFF STANDINGS/REMAINING SCHEDULES
Top four in each conference make playoffs
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
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TEAM
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WK 16
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WK 17
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WK 18
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X - 1. Tampa Bay (10-3)
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at JAX (9-4)
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BAMA (6-7)
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ORL (6-7)
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2. Tulsa (8-5)
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at BAMA (6-7)
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AZ (8-5)
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at OKC (6-7)
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X - 3. Jacksonville (9-4)
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TB (10-3)
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at B-S (3-11)
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SPO (12-2)
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4. Orlando (6-7)
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at MIL (8-5)
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OKC (6-7)
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at TB (10-3)
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5. OKC (6-7)
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at CLE (6-8)
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at ORL (6-7)
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TUL (8-5)
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6. Alabama (6-7)
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TUL (8-5)
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at TB (10-3)
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UTAH (1-13)
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NATIONAL CONFERENCE
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TEAM
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WK 16
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WK 17
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WK 18
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Y - 1. Spokane (12-2)
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WON at IOWA
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CHI (10-4)
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at JAX (9-4)
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X - 2. Chicago (10-4)
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DAL (1-12)
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at SPO (12-2)
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BYE
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X - 3. Arizona (9-5)
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WON vs UTAH
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at TUL (8-5)
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IOWA (6-8)
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4. Milwaukee (8-5)
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ORL (6-7)
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at IOWA (6-8)
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at CLE (6-8)
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5. Cleveland (6-8)
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OKC (6-7)
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BYE
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MIL (8-5)
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X - Clinched playoff berth; Y - Clinched division title
Officially Eliminated: Utah (1-12), Dallas (1-12), Bossier-Shreveport (3-10), Iowa (6-8)
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED RIGHT NOW
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
#4 Orlando (6-7) at #1 Tampa Bay (10-3; South Division leader)
#3 Jacksonville (9-4) at #2 Tulsa (8-5; Southwest Division leader)
NATIONAL CONFERENCE
#4 Milwaukee (8-5) at #1 Spokane (12-2; West Division champion)
#3 Arizona (9-5) at #2 Chicago (10-4; Midwest Division leader)
FRIDAY NIGHT HIGHLIGHTS
Spokane 48, Iowa 42
· The Shock won its AFL-leading tenth straight game. Spokane can secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, including the ability to host ArenaBowl XXIII, if Chicago and Tampa Bay lose tonight. If not, Spokane hosts Chicago next week and a win against Rush will wrap it up even if the Rush and Storm win tonight.
· This game featured 28 penalties for 197 yards.
· For the first time this year, Iowa QB Ryan Vena failed to run for a touchdown and throw an interception in the same game (he’s the league leader in rushing TDs by a QB and interceptions thrown).
· Needing to score quickly down 48-35 with 8:31 left, the Barnstormers gobbled up 7:36 to pull within six, but there was just 55 seconds left and Iowa kicked deep instead of trying an onside kick. The Shock ran out the clock and pretty much ended the Barnstormers’ playoff aspirations.
KNOW THE RULES
At least three times during the Spokane-Iowa game, kickoffs were caught up in the slack net for a touchback. However, NFL Network announcer Paul Burmeister claimed that the ball “goes out to the two and a half.” Come on Paul, it’s Week 16 and you still don’t know the rules? A ball untouched goes to the five – that’s what we call a touchback. Now if the ball is returned and the returner fails to get out of the end zone, then the ball goes to the two and half. I like that the NFL Network is using their own talent for the games as it helps give credibility to the sport, but you have to know your rules or you look silly to the loyal fans that actually know the game.
Arizona 48, Utah 20
· The Rattlers clinched its 15th playoff appearance thanks to beating Utah and Iowa losing.
· Arizona scored 34 points in the second quarter after trailing 3-0 at the end of the first.
· Arizona’s Rod Windsor broke the league’s single-season receptions mark on his first catch of the night. Fittingly, he broke the record against the team that the previous record was held by (Utah's Siaha Burley in 2007).
· Windsor now has 174 catches and is just 63 yards from breaking the league mark for receiving yards. Because of the blowout, Windsor didn’t play the final 18 minutes of the game. He became just the second player to hit the 2,000-yard receiving mark (AFL record is Burley's 2,129 in 2007).
· At halftime, the Rattlers retired former QB Sherdrick Bonner’s #13. Bonner spent all but the final season of his career with the Rattlers and holds team career records in all passing categories. He helped the team to five ArenaBowl appearances and two wins. On the contrary, the Dallas Vigilantes announced on Friday that they would retire the jersey of a player that never played for the franchise in their Week 17 game against Utah: Clint Dolezel, who played for the Dallas Desperados for three seasons, leading that team to three great regular seasons before losing in the playoffs each year.
· Arizona QB Nick Davila set team single-season records for passing yardage and passing scores during the game.
· The first two drives of the third quarter apparently took no time off the clock accoriding to the stats. However, the third drive in which Arizona scored a touchdown took eleven and half minutes for just four plays. Just another reason to get rid of this stats program (don't be cheap AFL, do the right thing). Utah did have a massive 9:27 drive to start the game (on 13 plays for a lousy field goal), but the Blaze is an embarrassment and I believe that actually happened. Maybe holding onto the ball for as long as possible is a way for the Blaze to not get blown out. If that's the case, it's not working.
EXTINGUISHED
There’s little question that the 2010 Utah Blaze is one of the worst teams in league history, as evidence of its tenth loss of more than 20 points. With two games remaining, Utah has been outscored by 304 total points. If the Blaze is outscored by 32 or more points in its final two games it will break the league single-season record for most total points outscored. The current record is held by the 2003 Carolina Cobras that were outscored by 335 points while pitching a perfect 0-16 season (only team in league history to finish with a minus point differential of 300 points or more). Utah has had just one game this season that was decided by less than nine points – Carolina had four of those back in 2003. The Blaze is also on pace to break the league record for most points allowed (2007 Rampage gave up 1,014 while going 4-12).
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.