SHOCKER: Spokane already mathematically eliminated
Andy Lopusnak
Sunday July 8, 2012
In Sunday's online edition of The Spokesman-Review, it published an article entitled "Shock cling to slim playoff hopes." Sadly, the Shock was already eliminated before this article was published and apparently, nobody knew about it.
The AFL put out its official playoff scenarios this past Tuesday and nowhere did it list that Utah and San Jose could clinch this weekend and that Chicago and Spokane could be eliminated. With Utah winning on Friday and San Jose winning on Saturday to increase each team's win total to eleven, the Spokane Shock has been eliminated according to the league's official playoff qualifications.
In addition, if Chicago loses today against San Antonio then both Utah and San Jose clinch playoff berths for the first time since 2008. That year, Utah made it as a 6-10 team and actually hosted a playoff game, but lost. San Jose won the American Conference and lost in ArenaBowl XXII by three points.
So, how did Spokane get eliminated before playing Philadelphia today and how does Chicago get the boot if it loses today?
Let's assume that Chicago, San Jose, Spokane and Utah all end with identical 11-7 records. This means the Blaze and SaberCats lose out, Spokane wins out (now 8-7) and Chicago (now 9-6) loses once in the next three weeks.
On page eight of the AFL's 2012 Record & Fact Book (also found online here), it lists the following tiebreakers if three or more teams are tied with the same record at the end of the season.
1. Head-to-head best won-lost percentage in games among clubs
2. Best won-lost percentage in common games, if applicable
3. Strength of schedule strength up
4. Best net total touchdowns in all games
5. Coin Toss
The first tiebreaker is the won-lost percentage in games among the tied teams if all have played each other. In this case, all four teams have played each other and since they don't play each other the rest of the season this tiebreaker won't change.
|
|
CHI
|
SJ
|
SPK
|
UTAH
|
|
vs. CHI
|
---------
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
|
vs. SJ
|
0-2
|
--------
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
|
vs. SPK
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
--------
|
2-0
|
|
vs. UTAH
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
--------
|
|
RECORD
|
1-3
|
4-2
|
1-4
|
4-1
|
Spokane has the worst record against the other three teams. Since the multi-team tiebreaker is the only tiebreaker necessary to get both remaining playoff seeds and that no matter what combination you do with the possibilities (all four teams or just the West teams), the Shock was eliminated once San Jose won on Saturday.
Since Chicago was 0-3 against San Jose and Utah combined, the Rush would also be eliminated assuming its final record was 11-7. Again, Chicago ends 9-9, 10-8 or 12-6 and the three West Division teams are all 11-7, then Spokane would still be eliminated since the Shock went 1-3 against San Jose and Utah (the Blaze was 3-1 and the SaberCats were 2-2).
For the first time in franchise history (dating back to its af2 days), the Spokane Shock won't be playing in the postseason. As an af2 expansion team in 2006, the Shock won the ArenaCup. Two years later, Spokane lost the title in overtime to the Tennessee Valley Vipers (that team is now the Georgia Force). In 2009, the Shock won the final ArenaCup then moved up to the AFL in 2010 and won the ArenaBowl that season. Last year, Spokane slipped into the playoffs at 9-9 but was shellacked 62-33 by Arizona.
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
