San Jose still in it with three left
Andy Lopusnak
Friday July 8, 2011
A week ago, the SaberCats were all but dead in the playoff race; but a stunning win over the team with the best record and losses by Utah, Spokane and Tulsa put San Jose back in the hunt.
Now with three games left, the SaberCats (6-9) are just a game behind Utah (7-8) and Spokane (7-8) for the final spot in the National Conference. The SaberCats own tiebreakers against both teams right now (they play Spokane in Week 19). San Jose has the same record as Tulsa (6-9), but owns a head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to its 42-33 win against the Talons on April 16. Though the SaberCats hold a tiebreaker over the Talons, San Jose would be out if there's a three-way tie between Tulsa, Spokane and San Jose because both the Talons and Shock have better win percentage in common games. If there's a three-way tie between San Jose, Spokane and Utah; the SaberCats would get in (this assumes that San Jose beats Spokane in Week 19).
For the SaberCats to reach the playoffs for the tenth straight season, there are a few scenarios out there but the simplest one is this:
1. Win out (beat Orlando, Spokane and Tampa Bay)
2. Tulsa loses once (either to Tampa Bay, Orlando or Kansas City)
3. Utah loses once (either to Spokane, New Orleans or Cleveland)
San Jose could actually afford to lose a game assuming that Tulsa, Spokane and Utah lose twice. There's even a chance that the SaberCats could get in if they lose two games (but would still need to beat Spokane).
In the last three seasons, the SaberCats have won its final three games. That's a 9-0 record dating back to 2006. San Jose is on a 14-game winning streak in its final four games of the regular season dating back to 2005 (including last week's win over Jacksonville).
First and foremost, the SaberCats need some more wins under their belt and the final three games aren't going to cakewalks. This week, they host the Orlando Predators (9-6), a team currently holding the final playoff spot in the American Conference and loser of three of its last four games. Orlando has one of the best secondaries in the league led by DB Rayshawn Kizer, whose 13 interceptions are the second most in the AFL.
Next week, San Jose heads north to take on Spokane. Yes, the SaberCats killed the Shock in the season opener 76-48 but both teams are completely different from that first matchup. Spokane has posted impressive wins over Arizona, Dallas and Chicago - all of which beat handedly the SaberCats this year.
In the season finale, San Jose heads to the Sunshine State to face off against a struggling Tampa Bay Storm team that faces playoff elimination with its next loss.
As for the other three teams vying for the final playoff spot in the National Conference...
Utah and Spokane play this weekend in the first outdoor AFL game in the league's 24-year history. Bad news for the Blaze came out on Thursday when the team placed the league's leader in passing touchdowns (Tommy Grady) on injured reserve thus ending his impressive season. Without Grady, Utah was outscored 31-7 against Chicago last week and also lost backup QB Jordan Rasmussen in the loss. The Blaze beat the Shock by seven points on April 15 and Grady was fantastic in that game tossing six scores to just seven incompletions. Utah signed AFL journeyman QB Todd Hammel, who will turn 45 in December, since 2005 as well as another QB that played in the Southern Indoor Football League this season.
The Blaze's final two games are at home against New Orleans (3-12) and East-Division leading Cleveland (9-6). Spokane hosts San Jose in Week 19 and travel to Jacksonville (13-2) in the finale.
Tulsa lost last week to Iowa and hosts Tampa Bay (6-9) this week. Ironically, all four of Iowa's wins this season have come against San Jose, Spokane, Tulsa and Utah. The Talons finish the season with a home contest against Orlando then head to Kansas City (5-10) in Week 20.
If the same SaberCats team that beat Jacksonville shows up in the final three games, San Jose could be playoff bound. However, the three-time AFL champions still need Spokane, Tulsa and Utah to slip up.
With all four playing on Saturday, the playoff picture will be a little clearer Sunday morning. In a perfect green and gold world, San Jose and Spokane would be winners and Tulsa and Utah would be losers Saturday night. If so, Spokane would be 8-8 and sitting in the final playoff spot. Utah and San Jose would be tied at 7-9 and Tulsa would fall to 6-10. A SaberCats win next week over the Shock would then put San Jose in the final spot with a week to go.
It's going to be a very interesting three weeks of Arena Football.
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.
