Beat the Guru: AFL Week 3
Adam Markowitz
Friday April 16, 2010
For any of you that have been reading my musings here at ArenaFan for the past several years, you know that I'm not afraid to take shots at anyone that I feel is breaking what the league stands for. Whether we're talking about the AFL, the af2, or this arena football like substance formerly known as the AF1, the principals have always been the same. This is a game that was built for the fans.
So last week, before any of the games kicked off, I got some feedback in my inbox from Utah Blaze fan, Ty Willis, who made an SOS call to me about his team. He simply summed it up by saying, "This new ownership group in Utah is a freaking joke!"
And this was before the Blaze got their clocks cleaned by Spokane in Week 1.
One glance at the roster before Utah ever took the field, and a lot of us knew that this just wasn't going to work. The owner's son, Michael Affleck was installed as the team's starting quarterback from the get go. Tossing 58 touchdowns against 13 picks in the AIFA was his only legitimate experience as a quarterback, including his years at Utah State (and if you know anything about the history of Utah State football, you know that being a backup on that team isn't something to brag about).
So what happens? Coach's kid goes out, goes 4/12 for 42 yards with a pick, doesn't lead an offensive touchdown for the entire first half of football, and, just like any other fish that is flopping around out of water for long enough, he eventually (and mercifully) got yanked in favor of backup Brett Elliott in the second half. What in the name of Braniff Bonaventure and Bobby Pesavento is going on here?
Well Ty, you're certainly right about one thing. Your team is a joke. Unfortunately, all I can do is rant for you, though. Even if I could throw a football more than 5 yards in front of me with any sort of a spiral whatsoever, I don't think the Blaze would sign me up to play quarterback.
Recapping last week... Quite simply, the Guru is back! I busted out the brooms last week and swept board, going a perfect 5-0 ATS and successfully calling the upset for Tulsa over Dallas outright.
For beating me this week, accolades go out to... absolutely no one! That includes that pesky AFLJunkie, who is back after beating me last year. You've gotta try harder than going 2-3 to beat the Guru this year, my friend!
YowDawg deserves some props for being smart enough to just pick the same five games that I did to also go a perfect 5-0. Well done.
As for this week's lines, as of Friday morning, there are only betting lines up for the games played on Friday night. So this week, you're going to see the term "OTB" for the first time this year, meaning "Off the Board." I'll plug in lines as soon as I get them, promise.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. Lines courtesy of Olympic Sportsbook as of Friday morning.
Dallas Vigilantes (+5.5) @ Tampa Bay Storm: What a terrible break for Dallas QB Shane Stafford, who is likely out for the season with a broken ankle that he suffered in Week 1 in Tulsa. The Desper... err... Vigilantes still have one of the more talented teams in the league, but without Stafford calling the shots, the squad just doesn't look as powerful. WR/LB Lawrence Samuels is back in a Storm uniform, and even if he's still got "it" in him, he's going to help Tampa Bay get past a very tough opponent this week to get into the win column for the first time in '10.
Guru's Pick: Storm by two TDs
Orlando Predators (+5) @ Jacksonville Sharks: The good news for my Preds is that the offense only put up about 35 points more than I figured that it would against Bossier City last week. The bad news is that the defense was as bad as advertised. Sharks HC Les Moss, a man very familiar with the Orlando franchise having coached there for several seasons as an assistant, will be happy to see a legitimate kickoff this week as opposed to an onside kick, which he saw a season's worth of against the Vipers last week in Alabama. Maybe HC Pat O'Hara should take a page out of the Vipers book. After all, Kenny McEntyre and Damon Mason wouldn't have to run nearly as far if they only had a quarter of the field to cover... They'll still be four yards behind, though.
Guru's Pick: Sharks by 9
Iowa Barnstormers (+14) @ Milwaukee Iron: Ok, I'm just going admit right now that I have no clue what to do with this line. I've got an Iowa team that looked terrible against a Chicago team that has looked good and a Milwaukee team that looked great against a Spokane team that looked great against a Utah team which is terrible. When all else fails in this league, you take the points and hope that it's enough.
Guru's Pick: Iron by just 8
Chicago Rush (-3.5) @ Arizona Rattlers: I watched this line open yesterday at Arizona -1 and said, "Wow, the Rattlers are only laying a point?" Then the line went to Arizona +1... then +2.... then +3... and now +3.5... So if there's ever a situation that I'm convinced that I'm just wrong already in, this is it. Obviously, someone likes Chicago in this game. I don't, though. Sorry Rush, the Rats aren't going to turn the ball over five times in this one, and the hostile free-to-the-public crowd should push Arizona to victory.
Guru's Pick: Upset Special, Arizona by 6
Cleveland Gladiators (OTB) @ Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz: If there's a swarm of locusts that opens up in Oklahoma City, you can blame the fact that we're going to see the quarterbacking prowess of QB John Dutton taking on the legendary coaching skills of HC Sparky McEwen. Quick, someone gouge my eyes out with a fork before I have to watch this. The problem for Sparky is that there are enough guys on the Glads to successfully overcome Dutton's screw ups. There aren't enough on his team to overcome his screw ups.
Guru's Pick: Gladiators by 2 screw ups (or 11 points)
Alabama Vipers (OTB) @ Utah Blaze: If Affleck is really going to give it a go again at quarterback, Vipers HC Dean Cokinos would be foolish to try any onside kicks. Don't worry, Affleck will give it back to you in four plays at the most. Can you say, disgrace?
Guru's Pick: Vipers by 27
Bossier City Battle Wings (OTB) @ Spokane Shock: Here's the best game of the weekend. The Battle Wings haven't flown away from their home quite yet this year, and now they're going to go from an environment in which they saw an average of 3,244 fans per game to one in which they'll probably be playing in front of roughly 10,000. Wins over Alabama and Orlando don't impress me much. Then again, the win over Utah really doesn't either. Still, I'm a believer in both of these teams and expect to see a barnburner. Anyone have a coin for me to flip?
Guru's Pick: Shock by 4
Recap
Tampa Bay -5.5
Jacksonville -5
Iowa +14
Arizona +3.5
Cleveland by 11
Alabama by 27
Spokane by 4
Beat the Guru's Top 10 (Must have 5 games selected to qualify)
Samcro | 4 | 1 | 80.00% |
AFLGuru | 8 | 3 | 72.73% |
YowDawg | 8 | 3 | 72.73% |
Dallas | 7 | 4 | 63.64% |
BiffNixon | 3 | 2 | 60.00% |
dthomas4233 | 6 | 5 | 54.55% |
kryscio23 | 6 | 5 | 54.55% |
Rush43 | 6 | 5 | 54.55% |
Dstrimple | 5 | 6 | 45.45% |
rattlersforever | 5 | 6 | 45.45% |
For all of your AFL betting information and to get a look at the Guru's best plays for the weekend, check out his forum at Sports Prescription.
See how well you can do against the Guru. Make your picks here. Winners will be recognized weekly.