SaberCats clawing for ArenaBowl again
Andy Lopusnak
Saturday July 12, 2008
The San Jose SaberCats are just a game from the ArenaBowl. It’s a familiar spot for the defending champions. San Jose has been in seven of the last eight semifinals matchups, going 3-3 in six previous semifinals. To reach their fourth ArenaBowl in the last seven season, the SaberCats will need to beat one of the hottest teams in the league – the Grand Rapids Rampage.
Grand Rapids, which was 3-10 after thirteen games this season, has won five straight contests. Four of those games, including the last two playoff contests, have been on the road. Last week, the Rampage knocked off the American Conference’s top-seeded Chicago Rush 58-41 to earn the right to play the SaberCats for the Conference championship. Grand Rapids is hot on the road, but its playing the team with the longest home (six) and overall win streak (seven) in the league.
These two teams met in Week Two this season. The SaberCats’ 66-58 win in Grand Rapids was the team’s first victory of the year and was the Rampage’s first game (team had a bye in Week One and will play its 19th straight game today). In that first meeting, San Jose trailed 13-0 thanks to a net recovery for a touchdown after a Rampage touchdown. The SaberCats blazed back thanks to three fumble recoveries to register its second biggest come-from-behind victory of the season (overcame 14-point deficit against Georgia). This is the eleventh overall meeting between these two clubs and first in the playoffs. San Jose holds a 9-1 edge in the previous ten games played, including a 6-0 record at home.
Much has changed since Week Two for both teams.
The Rampage made a QB change from Adrian McPherson, who was completed 17-of-30 for 228 yards with four touchdowns against the SaberCats, to James MacPherson, who led the AFL in touchdown percentage (18.6%) in the regular season and completed a playoff record 84.6% of his passes in last week’s stunning win over Chicago.
Though the SaberCats’ roster is very similar to the Week Two matchup, San Jose stumbled to a 5-5 record through ten games. Since, the team has not lost, winning eight-straight contests. In eight wins, quarterback Mark Grieb has tossed 56 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Grieb needs four passing scores to become the second player in league history with 100 career playoff touchdowns.
Strangely, both of these teams have won just one game against a team with a winning record this season – San Jose beat Georgia in Week 17, while Grand Rapids took out Chicago last week. Yes, eleven of the SaberCats twelve wins have been against teams that did not reach the nine-win plateau.
When looking at the numbers, the offenses look very similar in terms of points scored. Grand Rapids finished second in the league in scoring and San Jose was third, just 0.4 points per game behind the Rampage. From there, the two teams start to separate. San Jose is the best in the league in red-zone offense (91.8%) and Grand Rapids is second to last (77.6%). The Rampage has the second-best rushing attack (31.2 per game) and the SaberCats are tied for third to last (9.2).
Defensively, the stats show the SaberCats as absolutely dominate. San Jose is the league’s best team in red-zone defense, takeaways, sacks and third-down conversions. On the flip side, Grand Rapids finished second to last, tenth, fifth to last and second to last respectively in each category. These would normally outweigh the offensive similarities, but the Rampage’s defense has stepped up in the postseason allowing just 41 points per contest. San Jose is 1-6 in seven playoff contests when it scores less than 50 points, but is 8-0 when topping the 60-point mark. Which Rampage defense that shows up will likely dictate the game – the regular season defense that allowed 60.5 points per game or the playoff one that’s allowing 41.0?
On special teams, the game features two of the league’s top kickers and kickoff return units. San Jose’s A.J. Haglund earned AFL Kicker of the Year honors after leading the league in nearly every kicking category. The only one he did not lead the AFL in, extra point percentage, was held by Grand Rapids’ Brian Gowins, who finished second to Haglund in points scored. Despite of missing a contest, Gowins finished fourth in the league in touchbacks (41), while Haglund was ninth (26). Gowins hit the iron of the net structure the first time these two met, which resulted in a Rampage touchdown and 13-0 lead before San Jose orchestrated a comeback.
Grand Rapids has the best kickoff return unit (15.3 average drive start) in the AFL led by rookie Chris Martin, who posted six kickoff returns for touchdowns. However, the team had the third most drives starting inside their own ten-yard line. San Jose had the least drives starting inside its own ten (54) in the league and had the third overall best return unit thanks to the tandem of Rodney Wright and Trestin George. Wright’s 21.1 yards per return was the best among players with at least 50 kickoff returns.
KEYS FOR THE SABERCATS TO WIN
PRESSURE MACPHERSON: During the Rampage’s five-game win streak, James MacPherson has completed 74.7% of his passes for an average of 308.2 yards passing per game and has tossed 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He’s had some pressure put on him getting sacked ten times, but has not faced a defense like the SaberCats that hits you on the line and has perhaps the best secondary in the game today.
AVOID PENALTIES: Both teams aren’t that aggressive in forcing their opponents into penalties (bottom two in the league) and both are among the best in least penalties committed. Recently though, San Jose has been on the receiving end of a lot of penalties – nine for 70 yards last week, including three that resulted in Colorado first downs. Grand Rapids, on the other hand, forced Chicago; a team had the sixth least penalties this season, into eleven flags for 74 yards and gave the Rampage offense five first downs via penalties. The team penalized the most is likely to be on the losing end of this contest.
JACKED UP: A majority of Mark Grieb’s league-leading 20 picks were thrown to the jack linebacker, which is now allowed to roam freely from sideboard-to-sideboard - it's given him problems all year. Grieb needs to avoid throwing over the middle too low or the big-bodied Jermaine Lewis, a six-foot-four receiver turned linebacker that earned All-Ironman honors this season, might snag a few balls ending SaberCats’ drives. Grand Rapids has scored on 17 of 18 drives in the playoffs (not including two to run out the clock to win each game) and any takeaway the Rampage can get could be the deciding factor in the game.
KEEP UP APPEARANCES: On paper, the SaberCats are superiorly better than the Rampage in nearly every category, but so was Chicago last week and that didn’t fare too well for the Rush. San Jose is looking to create the league’s third great dynasty and a loss to a 6-10 team would tarnish the feat (no matter how good the Rampage is playing now), especially since the SaberCats two years ago lost to a 7-9 team (Chicago) in the Conference Finals in this building. With that in mind, the SaberCats have the best defense in the league and must get more takeaways. San Jose is 9-1 this year when it forces more turnovers than it gives up. Grand Rapids is 1-7 when it turns the ball over more than its opponents.
TAKE THE LEAD EARLY: San Jose has been extremely strong when it leads after each of the first three quarters, losing just once when it trails after the first (5-1), second (9-1) and third quarters (10-1). If the SaberCats are down at the half, it could mean bad news as the team is 0-4 when trailing entering the second half. This season, the Rampage is 2-9 when trailing after the first quarter, 1-10 when down at the half and 0-9 after trailing entering the fourth quarter. Additionally, Grand Rapids’ opponents are 6-3 when scoring first. On the flipside, Grand Rapids is 7-0 when it has a halftime lead and 8-1 when up after three.
SCORE A LOT: San Jose is 10-0 this year when it scores 60 or more points, but is just 2-5 when it has less than 60. In the regular season, Grand Rapids was 0-10 when it scored less than 60, but has won its last two games when putting up less than that number. The Rampage is 6-0 when it scores 60 or more.
Andy Lopusnak is an 11-year AFL front office veteran, spending time with the Tampa Bay Storm, San Diego Riptide and Grand Rapids Rampage. He works as a statistician for NFL and college sports for CBS Sports and is a freelance photographer. Lopusnak received two Bachelor of Arts degrees from the University of South Florida and has been a fan of ArenaBall since its inception.