Beat the Guru: AFL Wild Card Round
Adam Markowitz
Wednesday June 25, 2008
“Beat the Guru” was a gigantic success for me until I put up back-to-back 1-7 weeks to end the season. I’m hitting the postseason in stride, I can tell. My arch-nemesis Scott Lange of ArenaFootballOnline (a.k.a., Arena Guru) successfully managed to go 2-13 in his last two weeks to pick up the final game in the standings on me in the regular season standings and finish one game in front of me. I remember spotting him a couple games early on that he listed as losses because we got different lines though, so this contest is clearly under further review!
It’s playoff time Scotty, and this is where I bring my ‘A’ game. Everyone consider yourselves warned. You can check out Scott’s analysis in his weekly column over at AFO.
Remember, now that we’re in the playoffs, we’re picking sides AND totals, so the competition gets a bit harder, and the stakes will increase with every round up through the ArenaBowl. Good luck!
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday evening.
New York Dragons (+7) @ Dallas Desperados, Over/Under 103: This game is a rematch of Eastern Division rivals from two weeks ago that was the beginning of my unraveling. I never really recovered from Dallas failing to pick up a touchdown after having 2nd and goal from the Dragons 2-yard line, and I’m not convinced that the Desperados have either. Not only did they limp to the finish line against New York, they basically threw up the white flag against Chicago when they learned that the Soul had locked up the #1 seed in the conference.
As for the Dragons, they aren’t faring much better. They took a whooping at the hands of Philadelphia last week, and lost Aaron Garcia in the game. Though the thought is that Garcia could have played if the game had meant a little more, I’m always skeptical about the fact that you can basically breathe on Garcia and hurt him. That’s without the Dallas front line rushing at him, mind you.
I’ve been telling my peers for the past few weeks that the Desperados are a dangerous, dangerous team still. The past two years, they’ve had a giant bulls-eye on their chest as the top dog in the National Conference. Though it will be an extreme disappointment if they don’t win the ArenaBowl this year, the bulls-eye rests squarely in Philadelphia, where everyone will be gunning to take down the Soul.
Karma was against Dallas last year when Columbus got two bar-shots to cripple them in the 2nd half, and you’d like to think that that shouldn’t find a way to happen again. The losing coach of this game might end up being the third coach shown the door by his team already this season, and I just can’t imagine that Will McClay and the Desperados will fold under this pressure.
Guru’s Pick: Dallas 65 – New York 48 (Dallas and the over)
8-Ball’s Pick: Dallas and the over
Colorado Crush (+6.5) @ Utah Blaze, Over/Under 119: I think this game has one purpose and one purpose only in life: Piss the Guru off. It’s working. Not only does the fact that the Colorado Crush getting to the playoffs costs me a hand grenade at the ArenaBowl, but knowing that a team that started 0-9 is hosting a game is equally disturbing.
To get the idea just how much things have changed over the course of the season, these two teams hooked up several weeks ago, and Colorado was a 1-point favorite. The Blaze won by a mere 5 touchdowns. Now the line has ballooned a whopping 7.5 points, and deserved so.
Utah may be the best “sleeper pick” out of the American Conference to unseat Chicago and San Jose. They’re hot, winners of six of their last seven games, and have the third best offense in the conference (4th in the AFL). Their defense isn’t so hot, but there’s no doubt that they can score on anybody. Put this together with John Dutton’s propensity to throw interceptions, and you’ve got yourself the makings of a game that the Crush will be chasing the whole way.
Though I wouldn’t put it past the Blaze to totally blow the doors off of the Crush again, this one has the makings to me of a game that yells the infamous “back-door cover.” A “back-door cover” is when a team that is trailing the whole way finds a way to score in an unusual fashion late in the game to get back within the point spread to essentially screw over the bettors of the other team.
You’ve been warned, Utah backers.
Guru’s Pick: Utah 60 – Colorado 55 (Utah and the under)
8-Ball’s Pick: Utah and the under
Orlando Predators (+3.5) @ Cleveland Gladiators, Over/Under 111.5: That feint sound you just heard was the Orlando team charter showing up in Cleveland after limping their way into a 17th straight playoff appearance. It is still bitterly ironic that the Preds found their way into the playoffs because someone else (Danny Wimprine) couldn’t handle a snap and got hit with a safety (which was the final margin in the Preds 51-49 win over New Orleans in Wk 16).
So now the Preds return to the site where their season took a real turn for the worse. Orlando suffered a three TD loss to the hosting Gladiators in their first visit to the “Q,” where Cleveland went a stellar 6-2. The Preds never really recovered, and haven’t played a really good game in well over a month.
Cleveland stumbled a bit against Columbus in their Week 17 matchup, but did more than enough to knock off the lousy Destroyers. You can’t bring that type of an effort into the playoffs and expect to win, though, and Coach of the Year candidate Mike Wilpolt has to know that.
Even though I’d love to think that my Preds can find a way to get it done and march one step closer towards the ArenaBowl, I just don’t see it. Orlando made too many mistakes in late road games last year that cost them, and those problems are now far worse this year. The final score from their first meeting should look about right.
Guru’s Pick: Cleveland 56 – Orlando 34 (Cleveland and the under)
8-Ball’s Pick: Cleveland and the over
Grand Rapids Rampage (+1) @ Arizona Rattlers, Over/Under 119.5: Once again, only in the AFL can a team go 8-8, be mired in a slump, have no clue who their starting QB is going to be, and be hosting a playoff game. The Rattlers are a mess right now, losers of their last two (meaningless) games, and having all sorts of questions at the quarterback position. After beating Orlando in the Jungle, Kevin Guy said that Matt Sauk was his guy for the rest of the season. That changed in a couple weeks when Sauk went back to his old ways, and Jeff Smoker got called up as the starter again.
Then there’s the Rampage, who had the greatest scene of Week 17 when they doused Steve Thonn with Gatorade on the sidelines right at the end of their massive win in New Orleans that ultimately put them in the playoffs and sent the 2008 VooDoo to their graves (sorry for the pun, I couldn’t help myself). If I had asked who the best offense in the American Conference would be at the beginning of the season, how many guesses would it have taken to get to Grand Rapids? Their 59.5 ppg is even more impressive considering they had games where they put up 28, 34, and 35 earlier in the season. Sure, they have the worst defense in the playoffs, but c’mon, this team is young, exciting, and has a great young head coach to spur them to victory.
There’s got to be one upset in the first round, and though this is probably the trendiest of the picks, it’s where I’m going. Grand Rapids has won three straight and has all the momentum. This is another team that could spark an upset if given the chance in Round 2.
Guru’s Pick: Grand Rapids 73 – Arizona 60 (Grand Rapids and the over)
8-Ball’s Pick: Rattlers and the over
And just because I know you all are so interested, here’s what my playoff bracket looks like…
National Conference
#3 Dallas over #6 New York
#4 Cleveland over #5 Orlando
#1 Philadelphia over #4 Cleveland
#3 Dallas over #2 Georgia
#3 Dallas over #1 Philadelphia
American Conference
#6 Grand Rapids over #3 Arizona
#4 Utah over #5 Colorado
#6 Grand Rapids over #1 Chicago
#2 San Jose over #4 Utah
#2 San Jose over #6 Grand Rapids
This is the ArenaBowl I picked before the season, and I’m sticking with it. Gimme the Desperados to lift the Foster Trophy in N’Awlins when it’s all said and done.
Beat the Guru’s Regular Season Top 10 (must have 40 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 78-53 (59.5%)
Es46ne10: 73-61 (54.5%)
InsideSix: 66-60 (52.4%)
Arena Guru: 70-65 (51.9%)
AFLGuru: 69-66 (51.1%)
EKUVolley: 59-58 (50.4%)
MBoyle: 44-44 (50.0%)
Phillysoul04: 41-46 (47.1%)
Rush43: 58-68 (46.0%)
Chrisncory: 30-36 (45.5%)
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
