Beat the Guru: AFL Week 15
Adam Markowitz
Thursday June 5, 2008
The few days leading up to the Week 15 Arena Football League games had a bit of promise to them. I was really convinced that my Preds were about set to romp to their ninth win of the season and inch closer to a division title. I was really encouraged to see a bunch of new entrants into the Beat the Guru competition this week… but there was one little problem. Here’s the list of those that DIDN’T beat the Guru in Week 15.
Got it? That’s it.
That’s right, each and every one of you out there clearly took your best shot at me this week, and none of you failed to at least match my respectable mark of 4-4. The most depressing, of course is that the “Arena Guru” posted a 7-1 record in a week where he was facing “technical difficulties” and couldn’t post analysis to his plays. I’m calling shenanigans, by the way. I want to know who made the picks for the “almighty” over at ArenaFootballOnline, and want that guy out of the way to put back in Scott Lange! Hopefully this week his analysis returns, and whether it does or doesn’t, you can always take a look at his picks for the week in his weekly article at AFO.
All’s fair in love and war, and though it pains me to do this, I’m going to recognize each and every person who at least matched my record this week (that’s all of you knuckleheads!).
To AFLJunkie: GO AWAY! No, no, I’m kidding. You’ve been a thorn in my side in this competition all year, and your 7-1 mark in Week 15 topped them all with MBoyle.
To MBoyle: Congrats on matching AFLJunkie’s 7-1 week and getting back to the .500 mark on the season. See you on the leaderboard later in the article!
To VooDoo Kelly’s Bones (6-2), OrlMemnoch (5-2), Gafan98 (5-3), and Lazyguy4Preds (5-3): Thanks for joining in this week. Enjoy your success this week because you’ll never have it again in this competition if I have anything to say about it!
To Es46ne10 (5-3) and InsideSix (4-4): You’ve been awfully consistent this year as demonstrated by another solid week by you both.
To phillysoul04 and Rush43: You both turned in 4-4 weeks to match the Guru, but I hope both of your teams fail miserably in the postseason since you represent the last two teams to knock my Predators out of the playoffs (but I’d never carry a grudge over from one season to the next!)
To my good friend and jello-shot-artist Chrisncory (4-4): Your SaberCats have absolutely zero chance to win the ArenaBowl. There, I said it. Now your wish shall come true. Enjoy it in good health.
And finally, my beloved 8-Ball (6-2), who for the second time this season managed to beat me in a week… Your ArenaBowl champion Destroyers were eliminated a couple weeks ago and you’re 20 games in the standings behind me. Congrats on a successful campaign.
Is that everybody??? Ah, yuck. That taste in my mouth is bitter, so I’m back with vengeance this week once again. But first, let’s take care of the business of this.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday evening.
Colorado Crush (+6) @ Grand Rapids Rampage: Neither of these teams have shown any life whatsoever these past few weeks. These two teams have combined… yes, COMBINED for two win since April 11th, and guess which two teams were in one of those games… Yep, Colorado beat Grand Rapids back on May 2nd. (Grand Rapids beat Kansas City on April 25th) I can’t figure out a way to handicap this game, but if the Rampage should find a way to win this one, I’m really in the driver’s seat for my hand grenade in New Orleans. But here’s a stat to chew on. The last time John Dutton didn’t throw an interception in a regular season road game and the team still managed to score at least 40 points was back on May 11th, 2007. Think about it… I’m still taking the points in this one because I really don’t have a clue which way to go in this one.
Guru’s Pick: Rampage by just 4
8-Ball’s Pick: Rampage
Chicago Rush (-4.5) @ Cleveland Gladiators: It’s basically all said and done for the Chicago Rush coming down the stretch of the season. Not only would it take falling off of the horse for the Rush to not have home field advantage throughout the 2008 playoffs, it would take a horse from San Jose to come and trample them on the way down. As for the Glads, the schedule is proving very, very difficult for these guys, and if they’re not careful, their playoff hopes will be dashed. They should put out a good effort against a Rush team with little to play for, but something tells me that Coach Mike Hohensee wants to see his team put one really good game together after a couple iffy performances. This should be a good one.
Guru’s Pick: Rush by 6
8-Ball’s Pick: Gladiators
New Orleans VooDoo (+2) @ New York Dragons: In spite of being just 7-6 in a conference where it’s going to take at least nine wins to make the playoffs, the Dragons have a chance to really put themselves firmly in the driver’s seat for not only a playoff spot, but a potential home playoff game with a victory here against the VooDoo. The Dragons already hold the head-to-head tiebreaker on both Tampa Bay and Cleveland, and this win paired with losses by the Storm and Gladiators could put Aaron Garcia and the Dragons right on the brink of getting in. I’m impressed with the ‘Doo hanging about a million points on the Destroyers a couple weeks after they held the Dragons to six points in the second half, but I think that Aaron Garcia is set to kick it up a notch and get ready for one last push for an elusive ArenaBowl title.
Guru’s Pick: Dragons by 12
8-Ball’s Pick: VooDoo
Georgia Force (-4) @ Columbus Destroyers: This is a tricky little line. The Force have been playing some of the best football in the AFL, but they’re due for an emotional letdown. The Destroyers have nothing left to play for except paychecks and pride, but they did just pull off a victory against New York a couple weeks ago at home. They also have some impressive showings against Dallas, Cleveland, Orlando, and Tampa Bay. Every thought says that the Force should roll, but I’m cautiously going to back the hosts with 4 points on my side and pray for an upset for the health of my Preds.
Guru’s Pick: Force by just 2
8-Ball’s Pick: Destroyers
Orlando Predators (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Storm: We’re not talking about my Predators this week. Instead, let’s talk about Tampa Bay. The Storm had their game in Georgia won last week, but a critical mistake late in the game by Brett Dietz cost them a chance to firmly put themselves in the Southern Division title hunt. Instead they are faced with the daunting task of probably having to win out to even have a hope of making the playoffs. Tiebreakers are going to work against Tampa Bay, as they will lose head-to-head tiebreakers with New York, New Orleans, Georgia, and Cleveland, so they must take this game against Orlando to own their tiebreaker against someone who is also fighting for their lives. But the bottom line is that an eighth loss somewhere along the way in these last three games will probably leave Tim Marcum and the Storm watching the playoffs from their couches. Unless the Preds get really healthy, really quickly, and suddenly figure out a cure for fumblitus, their prospects against their arch-rivals aren’t good at all.
Guru’s Pick: Storm by 18
8-Ball’s Pick: Preds
Philadelphia Soul (+1) @ Dallas Desperados: This line is a joke, right? Dallas is only a 1 point favorite at home against a team that wiped the floor with them when they met in Philadelphia??? It’s a shame that there are five other games that will all be played at the same time instead of seeing these two teams play again on ESPN2 on Monday night. Of course not. That would make too much sense. Instead, we get to watch two teams that don’t even come close to combining for the number of wins that either of these two teams have. The winner of this game has an inside track to the #1 seed in the National Conference, but the Desperados know that it’s all over but the crying if they can pull this one off. I don’t see a way they lose this one. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be a beating, much like what Philly did to them several weeks ago.
Guru’s Pick: Desperados by 27
8-Ball’s Pick: Soul
Arizona Rattlers (+3.5) @ Kansas City Brigade: Get excited!!! It’s the much-anticipated AFL debut of *drum roll please* QUINCY CARTER! I just don’t get it. The Brigade have played pretty good football under D Bryant’s direction. They’ve only really been blown out of the water once since he took over under center, and the team has performed really well in recent games against the murderer’s row of Orlando, Philadelphia, and Chicago, and nearly won all three games. They were in the gutter at 0-6 when Bryant took over, but his three wins have put the Brigade within striking distance. I’d love to bet against the Brigade, but I just can’t bring myself to backing this Arizona team in a spot where they really have nothing to play for having already basically locked up the #3 seed in the American Conference.
Guru’s Pick: Fighting Q’s by 6
8-Ball’s Pick: Rattlers
Los Angeles Avengers (+9.5) @ Utah Blaze: Man, after watching this Utah team for their first nine games of the season, if you had told me that they’d be laying 9.5 points to anybody for the rest of the season, I’d ask you where you got your drugs. Alas, the linesmakers have met their match, as there might not be a worse team in the AFL than the Avengers. Yeah, they showed some heart at home against San Jose, but were never really in the game. A win by more than 17 points will lock up the head-to-head tiebreaker for the Blaze and could reasonably put them in the #4 position once the week is over. Just what we all want to see, a team that started off 0-9 hosting a playoffs game. In case you needed extra motivation for this one, this game features the worst two defenses in the entire AFL. LA averages giving up 63 points per game. Utah, a shade over 61. The difference here is the 58 to 53 advantage on offense that the Blaze have. Look for Utah to run this score up late, trying their best to secure that head-to-head tiebreaker and send the Avengers one game closer to their grim fate.
Guru’s Pick: Blaze by 18
8-Ball’s Pick: Avengers
Beat the Guru’s Top 10 (must have 35 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 67-40 (62.6%)
AFLGuru: 65-46 (58.6%)
Arena Guru: 62-49 (55.9%)
Es46ne10: 61-49 (55.5%)
InsideSix: 56-46 (54.9%)
EKUVolley: 46-40 (53.5%)
MBoyle: 36-36 (50.0%)
Phillysoul04: 31-32 (49.2%)
Rush43: 49-54 (48.0%)
TDTommy: 27-37 (42.2%)
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
