Beat the Guru: AFL Week 7
Adam Markowitz
Thursday April 10, 2008
I’ve done plenty of speaking about Sunday’s game between the Orlando Predators and Chicago Rush, so I’m going to take this opportunity to talk a bit about the New Orleans VooDoo.
Before the season, there was a rash of season-ending injuries to wide receivers, none more significant than the VooDoo’s Derrick Lewis. Lewis was the heart and soul of the Austin Wranglers, and was expected to fill a void in a receiving corps that has been weak in years past. Then in Week 1, the Doo lost QB Steve Bellisari to injury, but everything seemed to change when Danny Wimprine started the second game of the season.
Wimprine, a New Orleans native, has only thrown two INTs in what basically amounts for five and a half games. That’s one fewer than Bellisari threw in a bit over a half of football. James Jordan leads the team in all major receiving categories and Calvin Spears and Lin-J Shell lead a secondary who has a whopping 15 INTs in just 6 picks. It’s worth nothing that Shell has more INTs himself (4) than his former team, the Orlando Predators have (2).
Of course, in six games the ‘Doo have more wins (5) than I figured they’d have in 16 games (2).
Whoops!
Okay, that’s enough crow to be eating for one week… Oh wait, I still have to go over last week’s ridiculous results.
I only managed another 3-5 week against the spread, dropping me to 27-20 on the season. The good news is that I’ve kept my two game lead against AFO’s Arena Guru, who also went 3-5. Been awhile since you’ve had a winning week, eh “Guru?” You can check out whether he can get off the can this week in his feeble attempts at beating me at ArenaFootballOnline.com.
As for you mere mortals out there, only InsideSix posted a winning week at 5-3. He’s creeping up on me all of a sudden, sitting only one game behind. AFLJunkie (now ahead of me by 4 games) heads a group including EKUVolley, es46ne10, and TDTommy who went 4-4 in beating me. Rush43 was my equal this week, matching my 3-5 mark.
But don’t worry, the Guru will be back this week with vengeance.
Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of LVSC as of Wednesday evening. Please note that these lines are not available offshore, but will be the lines used for the purpose of competition this week since offshore lines are no longer available until Thursday.
Colorado Crush (+3) @ Cleveland Gladiators: Boy this is a difficult game to handicap. The Crush put down a slumping Avengers squad last week in pretty comfortable fashion. We’ve also had a John Dutton of old sighting, as he chucked eight TD passes, five of which went to Ben Nelson. Of course, he threw an INT, which was to be expected. As for the Glads, they put up a very game effort against the Desperados in Big D and return home for the first time in almost a month. Dutton’s going to lose a possession, but the clock management of Mike Dailey against that of Mike Wilpolt is laughable and should get the possession back. It’s so hard backing this Gladiators team knowing that if anything happens to Raymond Philyaw, that’s it’s Rohan Davey’s game to blow to smithereens.
Guru’s Pick: Mild Upset, Crush by 3
8-Ball’s Pick: Gladiators
New Orleans VooDoo (+7.5) @ Dallas Desperados: So I just spent the first half of this article pumping up the VooDoo, but c’mon, I’m a Preds fan. I can’t in good conscience pick a division rival in a game against the team I’ve been hyping all season to go 19-0, right? Marcus Nash must be glad to have Clint Dolezel back under center, as he caught five TD passes in last week’s W against the Glads. I still think it’s smoke and mirrors that the VooDoo are operating on at this point, and Dallas isn’t supposed to struggle with teams putting it together by these means until the playoffs.
Guru’s Pick: Desperados by 10
8-Ball’s Pick: VooDoo
Utah Blaze (+8) @ Los Angeles Avengers: Would someone like to explain to me why Tim Hicks started in place of Sonny Cumbie last week? You know, when betting baseball, if the guys who are supposed to be the starting pitchers don’t actually start, the bet is void. I swear we should incorporate that into football betting. When a starting QB doesn’t go for some unknown reason, all bets should be null and void. *Sigh* Anyway, Utah was game last week in Philadelphia, but the Avengers need a win to make sure they don’t happen to let the winless Blaze back into the playoff hunt. A bunch of my cohorts are calling me crazy, but I think the Avengers are covering this big number.
Guru’s Pick: Avengers by a dozen
8-Ball’s Pick: Avengers
Philadelphia Soul (-6) @ San Jose SaberCats: Speaking of not knowing which QB is going to start… Is it going to be Graz or D’Raz for the Soul this weekend? Without any other QB options on the roster anymore, one’s got to think that Tony Graziani is set for his triumphant return after taking a cheap shot from John Nix a few weeks ago. Still, is this worthy of making them a six point chalk at the defending champs? Let’s put it this way. I have a database of gambling records dating back to 2001, and I have no clue when the last time was that the SaberCats were home dogs. I quoted Lee Corso last week and will do so again. “That’s a yo!” This is the time of year the Kitties wake up from hibernation, and the second annual “Wake up the SaberCats” game in the Big Easy could make for a barnburner of a game this weekend.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, SaberKitties by 1
8-Ball’s Pick: Soul
Orlando Predators (-3) @ Grand Rapids Rampage: What the %&%# do you mean that I’m not allowed to curse in this article? The &@^&#% Predators are trying to give me a $@&*! heart attack by playing every one of their games down to the wire (well, except for that *$#&%*# game in Week 1 in &#@& Philadelphia). I wonder whether we can expect a kinder, gentler Jay Gruden after the *@$#& warning that the AFL supposedly was going to give him after he used some *!#&@& profanity and is taking the blame because nobody at ESPN knows how to operate the dump button. Oh, the Rampage? They only managed to go from averaging 88 points in two games led by James MacPherson to getting shut out through almost two and a half quarters last week. I can only imagine what Steve Thonn must’ve been saying on the sidelines. It probably made what Gruden had to say seems tame.
Guru’s Pick: Preds by a &#!!&$ touchdown
8-Ball’s Pick: Rampage
Arizona Rattlers (+7.5) @ Tampa Bay Storm: This is another situation where we all have no clue who’s really going to be playing at QB. Will it be Smoker or Campbell? Does it really matter? It’s Week 7 and only the second home game for the Storm. It’s potentially a danger time for Tampa Bay, who really needs to start gaining ground on New Orleans and the suddenly hot Predators. I’m going to be at this game on Sunday afternoon. Wonder whether my good buddy Brett Bouchy and his playoff guarantee are going to show up too?
Guru’s Pick: Storm by 16
8-Ball’s Pick: Storm
Columbus Destroyers (+2) @ New York Dragons: As promised, the Dragons put up quite an effort last week hosting Grand Rapids, and now have a chance to really get into the thick of the playoff conversation by putting out a strong effort against the defending National Conference Champs (and current National Conference Chumps). Weylan Harding’s job has to be on the line with these last 10 games of the season for the Dragons, so a game like this should be a must win for New York. Don’t expect the Destroyers to go lightly, but they’ll leave with another L on their slate.
Guru’s Pick: Dragons by 4
8-Ball’s Pick: Destroyers
Chicago Rush (-10.5) @ Kansas City Brigade: The feeling in the Chicago locker room after their game in Orlando was that the game probably should’ve ended in regulation. I find it pretty hard to believe that the Preds could run four plays in nine seconds myself, and for that I guess they have a point. Still, it’s hard to imagine that a team coming off of a game where they were +4 in the turnover department and still lost is going to lose to a team led by a guy with the first name of D.
Guru’s Pick: Rush by three tuddies
8-Ball’s Pick: Rush
To review…
Guru’s Picks
Crush +3
Desperados -7.5
Avengers -8
SaberCats +6
Predators -3
Storm -7.5
Dragons -2
Rush -10.5
8-Ball’s Picks
Gladiators -3
VooDoo +7.5
Avengers -8
Soul -6
Rampage +3
Storm +7.5
Destroyers +2
Rush -10.5
Beat the Guru’s Top 10 (must have at least 16 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 31-16 (65.6%)
InsideSix: 26-21 (57.4%)
PhillySoul04: 17-14 (54.8%)
SoulPhan71: 13-12 (52.0%)
Kronuckle: 11-12 (47.8%)
Rush43: 18-21 (46.2%)
Es46ne10: 21-25 (45.6%)
TDTommy: 20-27 (42.6%)
AvengersFan: 10-14 (41.7%)
Biff Nixon: 16-23 (41.0%)
Make Your Picks
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.