Beat the Guru: AFL Week 4
Adam Markowitz
Wednesday March 19, 2008
In the other Dragons debacle, Week 1 against the Cleveland Gladiators provided a horrible beat to anyone who took the under. With the score 54-42 with under 0:30 remaining, Glads QB Raymond Philyaw fumbled on what should’ve been the last play of the game. Instead, Davey and the Dragons came out and turned it over, resulting in a 50-yard TD return by Robert Redd. The game still would’ve gone under the total of 107, if not for Damien Groce returning the ensuing kickoff for a TD as the clock hit 0:00.
Bad beats aside, let’s recap last week. For the second time this season, AFLJunkie has posted a better mark than me, chiming in at an insane 7-1 on the week. AvengersFan becomes only the second person to have a better week than me on the season with his 6-2 mark. Honorable mentions go out to es46ne10 and Rush43 for equaling my 5-3 mark from a week ago. As for the rest of you, work hard, and maybe one day you’ll be able to beat the Guru as well. At least most of you are doing better than the 8-Ball, who is just 7-17 on the season.
And speaking of Gurus… Once again, our dear Arena Guru from Arena Football Online posted an identical 5-3 mark to mine, still leaving me a game in his rear view mirror. You can read his insight on fantasy football and his lucky wagering picks in his weekly article at AFO.
There’s also been some confusion about how to pick a game, which I’ll take a moment to clarify. The spreads that are listed here are the spreads for this competition. Please don’t post whatever independent lines you find at the time, even though they are more accurate for the moment than the ones listed here. It just makes grading easier.
That aside, let’s go through the normal disclaimer. Disclaimer: This information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Should you choose to actually lay real money on these games, that’s purely your choice, and neither I nor ArenaFan are responsible. All lines are courtesy of Olympic Sports as of Wednesday afternoon.
Philadelphia Soul (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Avengers: I don’t care what type of grief I take for this, so I’m just going to go ahead and say it. Shame on you and your officiating crew, Tim McCabe. Towards the end of the 3rd quarter, Dragons DL John Nix took a ridiculously late and equally ridiculously dirty shot at Tony Graziani’s legs. Nix should’ve been thrown out of the game on the spot, not later in the 4th quarter after causing further problems. Now the Soul are without their leader, but this is why they signed Matt D’Orazio in the offseason. Even though it’s a short week for the Soul and a cross-country trip, look for the Soul to take their anger out on the Avengers, who were terrible last week in Georgia.
Guru’s Pick: Soul by 12
8-Ball’s Pick: Soul
Cleveland Gladiators (+2.5) @ New Orleans VooDoo: Yeah, yeah, yeah… I can hear you BBVD and all of the VooDoo fans out there. Ok, so maybe you guys won’t go 2-14 this year after all. I guess you’ll get to at least 3. Even though like many, I think Cleveland is a total fraud, the Glads are going to take care of the hex and do what Tampa Bay and Orlando couldn’t do the past two weeks.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, Gladiators by 4
8-Ball’s Pick: Gladiators
Columbus Destroyers (+4.5) @ Utah Blaze: My goodness, the world is coming to an abrupt end. Something has to give in this game between the worst offense in the National Conference (46.7 ppg) and the worst defense in the American Conference (66.0 ppg). To answer their questions in the secondary this week, the Blaze have traded for Preds DB Damon Mason. Ok, let me get this straight. In order to make your defense better, you’re going to trade for the worst DB on the only defense that may make your D look halfway decent? Someone please clue me in here… It’s the movable force against the resistible object in this one.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, Moveable Force (Destroyers) by a deuce
8-Ball’s Pick: Blaze
New York Dragons (+2) @ Arizona Rattlers: Too bad that there are still 3 winless teams in the American Conference, or I’d be counting the number of losses until the Rattlers are forced to pay a reported $2.2 million to their season ticket holders. The return of Dragons QB Aaron Garcia didn’t last long (gee, there’s a surprise), as he was knocked out of their game against the Soul in the 4th quarter. Garcia’s listed as questionable on the injury report, but let’s face it, he’s questionable to get through any game that he plays whether he’s perfectly healthy or not. Good thing for the Dragons that the headline in this one is, “SMOKER! DAVEY! It’s the AFL and it’s NEXT!” Am I contractually obligated to pick a winner in this game? *Sigh* When all else fails, take the points and pray.
Guru’s Pick: Dragons by 1
8-Ball’s Pick: Dragons
Georgia Force (+2.5) @ Orlando Predators: Let the record show that I am the responsible party for the Preds winning their first game of the season last week against the Utah Blaze. While reflecting on why the team won, Head Coach Jay Gruden had this to say. “At the end of the half, we worked the clock because Adam Markowitz told me to.” See Coach, if we had lost that possession at the end of the half, Utah would’ve scored again, and probably would’ve reached 11 TDs, which would’ve meant you were resigning! I may know the Preds deficiencies, but I sure can’t cap a game this year, as three of my nine losses ATS are in Orlando games. As for the Force, this quote from Matt Eichenblatt’s article is a scary proposition. “The performance they put on Saturday against a previously undefeated Los Angeles team should provide ample caution to future opponents and defensive coordinators...” Man, what I’d give to see the Preds hold an opponent to 58 points in a game this year…
Guru’s Pick: Preds by 4
8-Ball’s Pick: Predators
Colorado Crush (+9.5) @ Chicago Rush: Thanks to the ESPN crew for giving me the laugh of the weekend by calling Crush signal-caller John Dutton an “elite quarterback” in this league. Yep. Seventy-nine INTs in just over five seasons sure is elite. And now Colorado has to play on a short week and travel into hostile territory in the windy city? A couple years ago, this would’ve been the marquee game on the schedule. Now it’s just a beat down waiting to happen. Congrats to Rush QB Shredrick Bonner on the birth of his first child last week. Now go “Crush” Colorado!
Guru’s Pick: Rush by 27
8-Ball’s Pick: Crush
Dallas Desperados (+4) @ San Jose SaberCats: If you had asked me at the beginning of the season, I would’ve told you that this was the one potential bump in the road for the Desperados run towards 19-0. It hasn’t been pretty, but Chris Sanders has done just enough in two games replacing the injured Clint Dolezel under center. I guess when you have a defense that’s allowing 39 points per game, it helps. San Jose may have won back-to-back games, but the team just hasn’t clicked yet. Normally, this is that time of year that the Kitties start to play real football, but hopefully they can hold it off another week. C’mon Sanders, get it done for two more games for me until Dolezel gets back, and 19-0 may be in sight.
Guru’s Pick: Upset Special, ‘Rados by a tuddy
8-Ball’s Pick: SaberCats
Well, I guess that’s all the games on the schedule this week, since I think you have to be either certifiably INSANE or a degenerate gambler if you’re going to watch this game on Monday night... Oh, I guess I fit those categories, so I need to pick this game anyway.
Grand Rapids Rampage (+6.5) @ Kansas City Brigade: The John Fitzgerald experiment looks to have come to a close, as the Brigade have turned to QB Matt Kohn. In his only real appearance of his AFL career, Kohn completed half of his 24 passes and had two balls picked off for the Nashville Kats (ironically, against these Kansas City Brigade). Last week, the Rampage had everything going for them. They got the ball first, Shredrick Bonner wasn’t in town, a massive crowd was in attendance… and they promptly fell behind 22-0. It looks like it’s going to be another long season in Grand Rapids, but the good news is at 0-2, they have the same number of wins as both Kansas City and Utah, and at least one of those teams have to get in the playoffs. Until MacPherson the Greater is starting over McPherson the Loser, I don’t want to back this Rampage team, but there’s no way that a team led by a QB with a career 85.2 QB rating should be favored by almost a TD.
Guru’s Pick: Brigade by just 3
8-Ball’s Pick: Brigade
In review…
Guru’s Picks
Soul -2.5
Gladiators +2.5
Destroyers +4.5
Dragons +2
Predators -2.5
Rush -9.5
Desperados +4
Rampage +6.5
8-Ball’s Picks
Soul -2.5
Gladiators +2.5
Blaze -4.5
Dragons +2
Predators -2.5
Crush +9.5
SaberCats -4
Brigade +6.5
And now for the standings… this is a clear runaway right now for AFLJunkie, who is the only guy to be above .500 at this point!
Beat the Guru’s Top 10 (must have at least 12 games selected to qualify)
AFLJunkie: 18-6
Phillysoul04: 8-8
InsideSix: 12-12
Kronuckle: 11-12
TDTommy: 11-13
Rush43: 7-9
BiffNixon: 7-9
Chrisncory: 7-9
AvengersFan: 10-14
Es46ne10: 10-14
EKUVolley: 10-14
Arena Guru: 16-8
AFLGuru: 15-9
8-Ball: 7-17
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Adam Markowitz is an accountant living in Orlando. Adam is an old school AFLer, having followed the AFL since 1991. He attended or covered well over 200 games, including 17 ArenaBowls. Adam worked for the Arena Football League for two years as a columnist and historian before retiring in 2017 when the 50-yard indoor war left the Sunshine State. Adam still muses about the AFL on ArenaFan from time to time, and you can follow him on Twitter @adammarkowitzea.
